clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Ole Miss is favored in only four remaining games. We rank the upset potential of the others

New, 26 comments

Go ahead and write Bama in Sharpie on the L column.

NCAA Football: Arkansas at Mississippi Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Win probabilities have grown in popularity and use in the last several years to the point where you can track minute by minute how the game will end.

It’s just the insanity of fanatical sports culture as momentum and big swings in games can make or break entire seasons. Plus there’s gambling and degenerates constantly crunching numbers to get an edge and make some dough.

Looking at the Football Power Index at ESPN, the Cup noticed Ole Miss is favored in four of its remaining ten games. I used my desk calculator to find out that means the Rebels are likely to finish 5-7 if this holds true. Not ideal!

Rebel fans would undoubtedly go a bowl game if this team could cobble together a 6-6 record after a three year absence from the postseason. So the Cup has compiled an upset ranking of the remaining six games where the Rebels are underdogs, circle these dates on your calendar, and then realize you shouldn’t have a paper calendar anymore you boomer.

Each team has its win probability beside it, which can change depending on each week’s outcomes. For example, Ole Miss was expected to beat Missouri after week one until the Tigers blew out West Virginia, and now the Rebels are underdogs.

Let’s look at the best potential for an upset to possibly get Ole Miss back to bowl eligibility.

1.) Texas A&M, 26.3%

“What? OMTB, please stop it.” I know, I hear you, Texas A&M lost by two touchdowns on the road to defending national champ Clemson this week, and they looked downright decent in the second half trying to mount a comeback in the process. But they are playing their next four games at home before a road trip to Oxford including a date with Alabama the week before playing Ole Miss. I think there’s a pretty decent chance the Aggies come in at 3-3 and have significant pressure to right the ship against a salty Ole Miss team that could be 4-2 and trying to close in on bowl eligibility. I’m not a believer in Kellen Mond at quarterback, and this game just seems to be the best chance for an upset right now. PLUS ITS THE FIRST GAME WE CAN BUY BEERS IN THE STADIUM. Plz drink responsibly tho...

2.) at Mississippi State, 23.3%

There isn’t much we know about State right now, because they haven’t played anyone. What we do know is that starting QB Tommy Stevens may have a shoulder issue from this past week’s game, and it will likely be something he has to deal with all season. It’s just the rigors of the sport, and without a clear solution behind him, State looks more beatable today than they did two weeks ago. The Bulldog defense is giving up more than 20 points per game against Sun Belt and C-USA opponents, so fans have to be a little on edge at the prospect of piling up points every week to get W’s. Plus, it’s the Egg Bowl, and it’s about as unpredictable as you get.

3.) at Missouri, 25.4%

The Tigers looked phenomenal this past week against the Mountaineers who are not very good to be honest. The previous week they struggled to a loss on the road vs. Wyoming. It’s very difficult to win on the road in the SEC, plus I think Kelly Bryant is going to get more comfortable as the season goes on. Mizzou will likely be 4-1 and churning along in the SEC Eastern division race, so I think this game is not as ideal for an upset.

4.) at Auburn, 15.6%

This is truly one of the teams I would love for Ole Miss to upset, and with a freshman QB at the helm, it is possible though it will be on the road. Auburn’s defense has the potential to be one of the best in the country though, so right now, this game looks to be like whichever team gets to 20 first wins.

5.) LSU, 10%

Joe Burrow is probably going to act like he didn’t know Mississippi is a state or say something very incendiary prior to this game. Rebel fans will get mad, and we’ll fry a ton of corn dogs, set some coon ass traps, and win the party in the Grove. Ultimately, the leathery skinned Ed Orgeron has compiled enough talent and quality coaches to overcome his sloped forehead having ass.

6.) at Alabama, 3.3%

Lol, it’s in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is probably the best team in the country, and the defensive line for the Tide will cause some problems most likely. It will be tough to stay on schedule offensively, but we may just keep it closer than anyone expects and make some Bammers rage shit their pants.