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Red Cup Betting Guide: Rebels look for biggest upset of the year

The Rebels took their lumps in Baton Rouge in 2018, will this year be a repeat?

NCAA Football: Mississippi at Louisiana State Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Opening up my banking app brought some very saddening and realistic news - last week’s picks were absolute garbage.

That’s on me, I got a little humbled going 1-3 last week for the first time in months dropping my record to 24-16 on the year. We’ve got a couple futures wins already locked in as well, so we’re still teetering on “fine” and “research ways to get a new identity” in my opinion.

First off, huge tip of the hat to Ole Miss for proving me wrong and blasting New Mexico State and easily covering 28.5 points last week. You’re better men than me, because in your position, I would have probably mailed it in that week and relied on my talent.

Boston College literally gave away the game in the fourth quarter to Florida State and were an absolute mess only one week after they nearly broke the scoreboard on the road at Syracuse. Maybe it’s time to talk about the ‘Noles making a late season surge in the wake of the Willie Taggart firing?

Ohio State predictably blasted Maryland (73-14), but I predicted an under 65 point total only to be stymied by a Buckeye offense that never let up. Plus the Terps made it double digits, which was the biggest surprise to me in this miss.

We did hit on the over in the Clemson-NC State game as the Tigers throttled the Wolfpack, so it was some solace on Saturday to salvage the week.

Now we look ahead to a slate of games tomorrow where rivalry games start to rear its ugly head. Auburn-Georgia, Michigan-Michigan St., and our Magnolia Bowl highlight week 12 picks - an over, an under, a moneyline and a spread. Let’s get to the picks.

No. 4 Georgia at No. 12 Auburn — O/U 40.5 points

Both of these teams are averaging 30 points or more per game, though there are some blowout wins included in that statistic. Auburn coach Gus Malzahn has to feel the pressure mounting this season with Georgia and Alabama left with a potential to finish 8-4 after a strong start. I think Malzahn uses every play in the playbook this week to get a few touchdowns against Georgia. The Bulldogs meanwhile know they just need to win out, and they’re in the College Football Playoff again. This game is going to be a classic, and I’d put it somewhere in that 28-24 kind of range and hitting the over.

No. 1 LSU at Ole Miss — O/U 66 points

The Tigers have one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 44 points per game, while the Rebels are middling around 24 points per game. Let’s be real here, a lot of Ole Miss fans would hold their heads high with a 45-24 loss tomorrow to LSU. I think the Rebel coaching staff is going to look to shorten this game however possible, and the seniors on defense are going to step up and play lights out. Ole Miss has bowl eligibility on the line, and this game will be lower scoring than expected, bet the under.

No. 5 Alabama -19 at Mississippi State

You didn’t know this was a huge rivalry game? The Battle for Highway 82?!? I mean, I guess it is a proximity or conference based rivalry that is super lopsided (Bama 81-18-3 overall) with the Tide owning an 11 game winning streak. I don’t see that trend changing this year, but I also feel like Alabama will come in ready to show last week’s loss to LSU doesn’t change the fact they are wanting another shot at a title. Crimson Tide by three touchdowns doesn’t seem like a crazy spread this week, so bet the Tide to cover.

Michigan St. at No. 15 Michigan -600

I don’t like Jim Harbaugh or the Wolverines, but they are clearly the better team here though the 14-point spread is maybe a little too fat for me to get in on that action. Shea Patterson kind of looks like a pretty good quarterback, and Mark Dantonio is reportedly slipping onto the hot seat this season with a 4-5 record and a four game losing streak going into this rivalry game. The Spartans may be at risk of missing the postseason for the first time since 2016, and I think the Wolverines push them closer to it getting a win on Saturday.

So what rivalry game do you see causing absolute chaos on Saturday? What locks do you have for this week? Comment or tweet @redcuprebellion with your gambling picks.