The podcast will be back next week, but until then, we have given you our picks in written form for the second week in a row. Don’t pay attention to the overall season record, this week seems like a nice time to make some money with some opportunistic lines and over/unders.
Gamble at your own risk obviously, but the LGC is feeling a turn around here.
Cheers. Crack on!
Season record: 43-52 ATS (45.26%)
Austin (10-14 season record)
Virginia at Louisville
The pick: Virginia -3.5
I’m 0-2-1 when backing Virginia this year which means that I’m due for a win with the ‘Hoos. Gambler’s fallacy, schmambler’s fallacy. Louisville is improving, but their wins have come against Eastern Kentucky, Western Kentucky, a bad Boston College team, and Wake Forest without its starting quarterback. Louisville’s defense is one of the worst in the country (100th in SP+), and I’m skeptical about their offense being successful against Virginia’s 14th ranked defense. The Cavs are better at every position and should suffocate Louisville en route to a double digit win.
Utah State at Air Force
The pick: Over 58
Betting overs in service academy games is not a wise long term investment strategy, (I’m long on Beanie Babies. They’re going to bounce back any day now.) - but Air Force’s offense is 25th in SP+, and in their last 3 Mountain West games, they have scored 56, 43, and 41. Air Force’s defense, however, is ranked 83rd, and they are facing a capable quarterback in Utah State’s Jordan Love. With a QBR of 106 in Mountain West games, Love and the Aggie offense should be able to move the ball efficiently. I expect both teams to get in to the 30s which puts us comfortably over the number.
Tulane at Navy
The pick: Tulane +3.5
Tulane no-showed at Memphis as a popular dog last week, but people should have been prepared to have their money taken near Orange Mound (obligatory: TWO FINGERS ROUND, THREE FINGERS DOWN) Navy’s option offense is typically tough to prepare for in a week, but Fritz is well versed in the triple option, and Tulane played Army earlier this season. Tulane’s starting running back could return to the lineup against Navy, and his back up should be a go after leaving the Memphis game early. The Green Wave is too well coached to play poorly in back to back weeks, and I think they win a close one.
Ben (13-11 season record)
Wisconsin at Ohio State
The pick: Wisconsin +15.5
I like the Badgers. I will continue to like the Badgers. Ohio State wins but Wisconsin can run on anybody and will shorten this game and cover the line.
6 of the last 7 meetings between Wisconsin and Ohio State have resulted in either a Wisconsin win (2010) or an Ohio State win by 7 points or less. The Buckeyes 59-0 win in the 2014 Big Ten Championship game is the only OSU win by more than a TD in this stretch.— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 25, 2019
Akron at Northern Illinois
The pick: Northern Illinois -23
Akron is the only team in the country 0-7 against the spread so why not?
Maryland at Minnesota
The pick: Minnesota -16
Gophers are for real. This also shows some early reverse line movement.
.@TerpsFootball has won the last 2 matchups vs. Minnesota scoring a total of 73 points. #TBT— Maryland On BTN (@MarylandOnBTN) October 24, 2019
Maryland seeks to snap Minnesota's unbeaten streak Saturday at 3:30 ET in Minneapolis. pic.twitter.com/UD6Qfku0qi
Nick (11-14 season record)
USF at East Carolina
The pick: East Carolina +2
Charlie Strong’s true freshman quarterback is injured and may not play. Past him, there’s a walk on left in the quarterback room. The wrong team seems to be favored here and I expect a big win for Mike Houston in his first season in FBS.
Oklahoma at Kansas State
The pick: Kansas State +24
Too many points for a team that wants to keep possessions to 10 or fewer. A slow, plodding game at 11am in Manhattan means take the points, especially when it’s practically four scores.
South Carolina at Tennessee
The pick: Under 47
What am I missing here? Tennessee will have a guy at quarterback that either can’t throw or they don’t trust. Since Brian Maurer went down, the Vols totals are 30 and 48 with the latter coming against Alabama. The Gamecocks are more than content with shortening the game and that horrible Tennessee offense will do nothing but drain the clock.
Zach (9-14-1 season record)
Notre Dame at Michigan
The pick: Notre Dame +1
This one isn’t hard. I don’t believe in Shea Patterson and Jim Harbaugh to get it done. Point blank. Ian Book can really spin it (completed 64% of his passes for 275 yards against Georgia) and I expect him to carve up the Wolverine secondary. Brian Kelly might be 0-fer in Ann Arbor but I think he gets a W this weekend.
Washington State at Oregon
The pick: Washington State +14
The Cougs have covered nine straight against the Ducks, including winning each of the past four outright. Justin Herbert and the Ducks are for real but this one always seems to be weird. Oregon’s No. 8-ranked SP+ defense will test Mike Leach’s offense but I expect a Pac-12 dogfight in Eugene here.
Auburn at LSU
The pick: Under 58.5
This is going to feel like a 90’s SEC Saturday afternoon game. Auburn’s only shot is to run wild on LSU’s good-but not-great defense and to keep the explosive LSU offense on the bench, but I’m not sure that’ll happen. But, I do like the idea of Gus Malzahn playing keep away and the Tigers getting theirs when they can.
In 19 games vs Top 10 opponents, Ed Oregon is 15-3-1 ATS. Coach O is 13-1-1 ATS against Top 10 teams not named Alabama and has won each of the last 8 outright in that spot.— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 25, 2019