Unfortunately there is no Podcast Rebellion episode this week for you to drive around your respective towns and listen to the sultry voices of the Cup, picking games against the spread and earning that green cash money.
But, we still got you covered this week and are picking week eight’s surprisingly fun slate of football contests!
Season record: 38-45 ATS (45.78%)
Austin (9-12 season record)
South Carolina at Florida
The pick: Florida -4.5
Will Muschamp, fresh off of starring in his own “You vs. the guy she told you not to worry about” meme, has a tough task this week against Florida. South Carolina is in a classic letdown spot with a banged up freshman quarterback. Meanwhile, Florida, despite losing to LSU, is still very much alive in the SEC East. Carolina’s defense played well against Georgia, but they had previously given up 483 yards/24 points, 571 yards/47 points, and 421 yards/34 points to competent offenses.
Perspective on South Carolina spot this week - Since 2000, been 14 teams to win outright as a 20-point dog and then were a dog in next regular season game. Those 14 went 11-3 ATS in next game. Only one to pull the double upset - 2016 Syracuse - beat VT +21, beat BC +4.— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 15, 2019
I anticipate some serious regression from their performance last week. Florida may be down two of their top defensive players, but I don’t think Carolina is built to capitalize on their absences. Florida by 10.
Tulane at Memphis
The pick: Tulane + 4.5
Laissez les bons temps rouler vs. Whoop That Trick. The defenses are relatively even, and I will take the better coach with the better QB getting points in a less than hostile road environment. Tulane wins outright, and TIGER BASKETBALL IS BACK!1!1!
Michigan at Penn State
The pick: Penn State -9
Shea Patterson on the road at night versus a top-10 defense?
If Franklin and company weren’t motivated enough by the opportunity to solidify their status as a national title contender, recall that last year Michigan beat them 42-7(!). The Nittany Lions can all but end Michigan’s season and possibly Harbaugh’s tenure with a beat down here, and a beat down we shall get. Lay the points.
Michigan has failed to win a game under Jim Harbaugh in which the Wolverines entered as an underdog. Michigan is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS as a dog under Harbaugh. Five of the seven losses have been by at least 11 points.— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 15, 2019
Ben (11-10 season record)
Texas A&M at Ole Miss
The pick: Ole Miss +6.5
I like the Rebels in this spot. Ole Miss seems to be improving every game and I think the coaching staff finally figured out how to handle Matt Corral and John Rhys Plumlee at Missouri — who right now is objectively better than Texas A&M. Moreover, this is the classic “get beat twice by Alabama” scenario for A&M, who lost by double digits at home to Alabama last week.
Texas A&M hasn't swept the Mississippi schools since Johnny Manziel left College Station. 3-7 vs Ole Miss and Miss State in last 5 years. Aggies favored at Ole Miss this week, host Miss State next week.— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 15, 2019
I don’t know that I’m quite ready to take the Rebs to win outright, but I don’t know that I’m not either. Screw it. Take the Ole Miss money line. I have this feeling that if an upset is going to happen for this team this season, it happens this week. See you in the Grove.
Tennessee at Alabama
The pick: Alabama 1st half line
Alabama has outscored opponents 14-3, 38-0, 24-10, 28-7, 38-10, and 24-13 in its first six games. This is good for a cumulative score of 166-43. This is an average of 20.5 points per first half. That includes 14-3 against Duke (game one at a neutral site) and 24-13 against A&M (on the road). Tennessee is coming off an emotional, potentially job-saving win for Jeremy Pruitt a.k.a. this Saturday is as much of a letdown as they will ever have against the Tide. Meanwhile, Alabama gets started fast in virtually every game. This gets out of hand quickly and Alabama rolls the Vols to a halftime score of 28-3.
LSU at Mississippi State
The pick: LSU -18.5
State is not as bad as represented to this point in the season. However, this game is just an awful match-up for the Dawgs. This is very similar to what I will say about LSU when they come to Oxford so you can bookmark this for comparison.
1. State gives up more yards per play than they gain.
2. LSU averages 52.5 points per and throws for almost 400 yards per game.
3. State is 12th in the conference in sacks.
4. I do not expect the suspended players to dress this Saturday.
Moorhead’s club is extraordinarily opportunistic, with 10 fumble recoveries this season. However, LSU is just too good. MSU will need four fumble recoveries on Saturday to cover this line. I think a 45-17 type game looms.
Nick (8-13 season record)
Toledo at Ball State
The pick: Toledo +1
Toledo looked bad last week in a loss to 1-4 Bowling Green as four touchdown favorites. But, the Rockets own Ball State (+91 in their last three matchups) and should be able to put up enough points on the road to get the win.
UNLV at Fresno State
The pick: Fresno State -15
The Runnin’ Rebels went on the road and throttled an SEC team last week, but Vanderbilt has thrown in the towel. UNLV still features a team with no discernible strength, and Fresno’s back is against the wall after struggling on the road at Air Force.
UCLA at Stanford
The pick: Stanford -7
Stanford looked hapless to start the season. After a loss at USC, the Cardinal hit rock bottom against UCF before playing a little better in a 21-6 loss to Oregon. Since then, they’ve beaten Oregon State and knocked off Washington in a 23-13 game last week.
The UCLA Bruins are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games.— Mike Calvin (@MikeCalvinVK) October 17, 2019
The Stanford Cardinal are 18-6-2 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Follow or fade this trend?#vegaskillers #sportsbetting #ncaaf #ucla #stanford pic.twitter.com/vrnWSNfEgH
UCLA scored 50(!) second half points to beat Washington State in week four but followed that up with consecutive losses to Arizona and Oregon State. The Bruins are 1-5 and the Chip Kelly era in Westwood is almost over.
Zach (9-11-1 season record)
Clemson at Louisville
The pick: Over 60.5
Dabo Swinney’s club won this one 77-16(!) last season in Death Valley but this year they will be in Kentucky taking on Scott Satterfield this season. But, despite Clemson seemingly getting back on track after a dominating performance against Florida State, I think the Cardinals (37 points per game) will give them all they want.
Baylor at Oklahoma State
The pick: Oklahoma State -3.5
The Cowboys and Mike Gundy are fresh off a bye week and despite the Bears being undefeated, I think Chuba Hubbard is poised for a big day on the ground here. Also, in the past 10 years, an unranked OSU has been favored at home over a ranked opponent three times and are 3-0 straight up and ATS in this spot. Matt Rhule and Baylor are good, but this is a bad spot in my opinion despite this nugget:
In 15 games as an underdog of less than seven points, Matt Rhule is 12-3 straight up (4-0 at Baylor). That includes a 23-21 win over Iowa State this season as a 2.5-point dog.— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) October 15, 2019
Kansas at Texas
The pick: Texas -22
It’s Jayhawks vs. Longhorns, don’t overthink this one. Les Miles’ club lost their last road game to an average TCU team by 37(!) points and Texas is primed for a bounce back after the loss in the Red River Showdown. Sam Ehlinger isn’t the Heisman hopeful everyone desperately wants him to be, but Texas is efficient on offense (12th) while Kansas is hapless as can be (103rd) in defensive efficiency.