The Betting Guide is heating up to a low boil after a 3-1 record in week six brought our season total to a respectable 14-10.
I’m not satisfied though with our 58 percent win rate, however, because that’s not going to put a new X7 in the driveway at Christmas for the missus. We need to torch this week with a 4-0 record, and I’ve got four locks to take you from fakin’ it to makin’ it.
Last week our upset pick was Arizona over Colorado in Boulder at +155, which should have paid off pretty handsomely for you especially if you made it a part of a parlay with the Ole Miss game. We predicted an under in the Rebels game against Vanderbilt, and it hit due to the Ole Miss defense locking down the Commodores in a 31-6 rout.
But now we’ve got to turn the page to week seven where there are some massive games that will shape the College Football Playoff undoubtedly by season’s end. Let’s get to the picks - an over, an under, a moneyline and a spread.
Ole Miss at Missouri — O/U 56 points
I see this game hitting the over pretty handily. The Ole Miss secondary leaves something to be desired against good and great quarterbacks, and Kelly Bryant is at least a good QB for sure. With Mizzou losing its best defender, I think Rich Rodriguez will be scheming all week to come up with ways for the Rebel rushing attack to get into the open field.
Missouri notably lost its first game of the year, giving up nearly 40 points to Wyoming who has a run first style offense. The Tigers will score at least 34 or more, leaving the Rebels to only need a few touchdowns and a field goal for the over win.
South Carolina +24.5 at #3 Georgia
This isn’t a flashy UGA team that has looked really great every week, but they are undefeated and would most likely be in the playoff right now. Don’t let USC’s record fool you though as the Gamecocks are playing one of the toughest schedules in the country this year. With an 11 a.m. kickoff, I think Georgia comes out a little sluggish early on against a team they feel they should dominate.
In nine of the last twelve years, this game has been decided by two touchdowns or less, so it’s typically a closer, emotionally charged rivalry game than bettors expect. Bet the ‘Cocks to cover.
Washington St at #18 Arizona State — O/U 59.5 points
Wazzu has lost its last two games on the road including a ridiculous 67-63 loss to UCLA in what was definitely a video game and not reality. Last week, they only mustered 13 points against Utah who has a pretty stout defense. Arizona State has been very boring to watch this year, but they continue to figure out a way to win games with its defense only allowing one team to score more than 20 this season (Colorado).
In its four wins, the Sun Devils have allowed only 38 points, so we’re going to put a paycheck on the under and pray Mike Leach isn’t motivated for a massive upset.
Michigan State at #8 Wisconsin -450
The Spartans are sitting at 4-2 going into Madison, and they are getting some decent action as an underdog. But the Badgers have lured me in yet again this season with a great running back and seemingly looking unbeatable. I just don’t believe this is the week where Wisconsin stumbles, and I think throwing $900 to win a couple hundred bucks is an easy win.
So what did we get right? Where did we go wrong? Comment or tweet @redcuprebellion and give us your locks of the week.