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Texas A&M opens as 12.5-point favorite over Ole Miss in College Station

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That feels about right.

NCAA Football: Arkansas at Texas A&M Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Ole Miss is 3-6 against the spread this season, which ain’t great, and that record papers over the fact that the Rebs are 2-4 against the spread at home, and 1-2 away. This week, Ole Miss travels to College Station for the Rebels’ annual showdown with Texas A&M and newly minted head coach Jimbo Fisher.

Neither team is easy to pin down. Texas A&M is fresh off a four-point loss at Auburn, and game that played out exactly as Vegas predicted it would. Ole Miss and South Carolina combined to annihilate a 68-point over/under on Saturday, and few new lessons were learned therefrom, outside the fact that the Rebel defense remains abominable.

Ole Miss trends up and down from any given moment to the next. TAMU arrived in Auburn ranked No. 20, and they walked out of town on the losing end of a 28-24 slugfest. Eyeballing the opening line on this game is fool’s work, but it is at least happening on Kyle Field, which grants the Aggies a considerable advantage. A 12.5-point opening advantage, apparently.

If you’re betting this contest — and honestly, if you’re betting this contest, why? — DO NOT bet the spread in either direction. Both participants involved are far to squirrelly and weird that 13 points right or left is a wagering live wire.

Instead, peek the projected over/under, which OddsShark currently holds at around 52 points. We advised last week to take the OVER in South Carolina at Ole Miss — which they blew away midway through the third quarter — and given the state of the Rebel defense, the Aggies should certainly hang more than 33 on Saturday.

The Rebels’ offense probably have more than 20 points in them, depending on Jordan Ta’amu and Scottie Phillips’ respective injury status. So, yet again, and if Ta’amu and Phillips are ready to go, this week we’re gonna bet the OVER in College Station, then go buy a new meat smoker.