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Ole Miss oddly opens as touchdown favorite against Arkansas in Little Rock

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The line could come down, but two possessions feels a bit high.

Mississippi v LSU Photo by Marianna Massey/Getty Images

Ole Miss plays Arkansas this year not in Fayetteville, but in Little Rock’s War Memorial Stadium. That fact is significant because Ole Miss fares far better against SOOIE PIG when the game takes place not in Fayetteville. The Rebs have won the last two contests in Little Rock, and they’ve won the last two in Jackson, on what could be termed “neutral sites.”

Both clubs are all over the map this year. Arkansas played a ranked Texas A&M within a touchdown in Jerryworld a few weeks back and scored 31 points against Bama, but also lost to Colorado State and North Texas. Ole Miss has racked up 70 points twice this season — admittedly against second-class competition — and entirely crumbled in the face of No. 1 Alabama and No. 5 Alabama. Most of that blame rests on the Rebs’ Swiss cheese approach to football defense.

What all this preamble means is that the result of Ole Miss’ Saturday bout with Arkansas this year is entirely unpredictable, as it is every season. Fourth-and-25 perfectly sums up the kernel of the Ole Miss-Arkansas rivalry — yes, for its sheer insanity, but also for its typical stupidity. Here, let’s watch that again, together.

And that craziness brings us to this: the betting line that favors the Rebs in Little Rock, -7.5.

Hm.

That feels both too high and too low at the same time. SB Nation’s go-to sportsbook OddsShark currently holds the Rebs as -6.5 favorites, which also feels too high and too low. The Rebs have played like shit in both conference games they’ve faced this season, and Arkansas is never an uncomplicated foe, and again, Ole Miss has a bad defense and a streaky offense. A -7.5 line (or -6.5, for that matter) is utterly hysterical to consider, much less throw earned money at.

Thing is, if you’re degenerate enough to lay actual dough on this game, you better do so straight-up. Because there’s nothing in these teams’ mutual history that should make you like a touchdown advantage for Ole Miss. You’re better off burning those bills as kindling for the first fall backyard fire of the year.

Flip a coin for winner, and go with that. That’s what’s happening in Little Rock on Saturday.