Ole Miss-Kentucky: Box score rundown

As low as expectations had fallen heading into this cross-division battle of meh, there remained an opportunity for Ole Miss to disappoint fans even more. Fortunately, we don’t have to live in that world just yet, as the Rebels put together a nerve-racking, 14-play drive to seal the victory Saturday night.

Tossing records aside, they were always a better team than Kentucky, but had struggled converting what strengths they had into actual wins through eight games. It took every second available to them, but Ole Miss proved their worth in Lexington after giving the game away to Arkansas the week prior.

In his second FBS start, Jordan Ta’amu was brilliant in sharing the wealth through the air, and the running backs were just enough of a threat to make Kentucky’s defense respect them. As deeply as this team’s identity is rooted in offensive firepower, they needed the defense to hunker down for a stretch in the second half to stay alive. The Landsharks were still unreliable for most of the game, but forced four consecutive three-and-outs at one point.

Ultimately, this game means little to nothing long-term, but wins are rare these days and should be cherished/overanalyzed to the point of exhaustion.

Ole Miss relied more on steady ball movement than explosiveness to score against Kentucky, which isn’t their usual recipe for points. Their success rate of 55 percent is the offense’s most efficient outing against a Power Five team so far this season, making it hard to believe they only put up 37.

Part of the relatively low scoring came from the defense struggling to get off the field - the Wildcats had three different drives that lasted six minutes. The other cause was rooted in a lack of big plays. Phil Longo’s group had gotten used to picking up six from well beyond the red zone. This time, their only score of more than 20 yards out came on D.K. Metcalf’s 58-yard reception in the third quarter.

Fewer chances to break the top off the defense meant having to put together long, mistake-free possessions and sometimes settling for a field goal.

It’s pretty apparent from Kentucky’s efficiency graph exactly when Wesley McGriff’s squad came through, allowing just 1.3 yards per play over a 10-play stretch in the third. Considering the Wildcats ran the ball on six of these plays, there’s no logical explanation for what made the defense suddenly play well here, but it’s all Ta’amu and friends needed to climb out of a 10-point deficit.

A common complaint surrounding Ole Miss’ offense over the last two years is that they’ve failed to sustain early game success through four quarters. In the final 15 minutes against Arkansas, they put up just 4.2 yards per play and a success rate of less than 17 percent.

Saturday night, though, they gained yards pretty consistently after suffering a three-and-out to start the game. On the season, the majority of the Rebels’ touchdown drives have required just six plays or less, typically reliant on a big play or two to gain the majority of the yards needed. Before that methodical, 14-play drive to decide the game, they hadn’t had a touchdown drive take more than 11 plays.

Sure, they did what they were supposed to do against a bad defense, but the fact that they finished the job, no matter the opponent, says something.

In last week’s loss, it was surprising to see Ole Miss not lean more heavily down the stretch on a run game that was gashing Arkansas, especially given the lead they were trying to maintain. This time, the pass was the more reliable option, and the fact that they were down for much of the game provided enough reason to let Ta’amu keep dealing through the air.

Whether an offense decides to run or pass on a given play is never as simple as just doing the thing you’re better at, but it’s nice to see the distribution of plays match the circumstances.

Against the Razorbacks, 420 of the Rebels 566 total yards came on explosive plays, while less than half of their yardage relied on such plays against Kentucky. That’s not all that surprising, given the Wildcats’ defense is actually decent at not getting beat for big gains, ranking 42nd in IsoPPP. It’s impressive that the offense can still do damage when their biggest asset is taken away from them.

After showing out on passing downs last week, Ta’amu came down to earth a little bit in this regard, but it didn’t matter. He and the rest of the offense maintained leverage by staying in standard downs as much as possible, so he didn’t have climb out of a ton of third-and-long holes this time.

All in all, it was a super balanced outing from this receiving group. Five different players had five or more receptions against Kentucky, and no one gained more receiving yards than D.K. Metcalf’s 83. Considering both Brown and Lodge performed beneath their season averages of more than 18 yards per catch, you have to be happy with how the game turned out.

Even with all the Rebel defense’s weaknesses, Kentucky was more consistent passing than they probably should have been. Still, it could have gone worse, and they gained 20+ yards through the air only four times. C.J. Conrad’s 46-yard touchdown catch in the third came a bit later than we’re used to as Rebel fans.

Ole Miss’ backs got to the second level fairly often, doing so on 48 percent of their runs (season average is 39). They just didn’t do a ton with those opportunities, outside of a 20-yard from Pennamon in the third. Wilkins will be due for a big burst or two against UL Lafayette.

The run defense is still very bad, but hey - the longest gain given up on the ground was for just 22 yards.