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Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt football 2017: Lines preview

The Rebs open favored by 4.5 points. HOW?

NCAA Football: Georgia at Vanderbilt
Looking at that Rebs-Dores line like.
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

We know it’s Sunday night and Ole Miss suffered another shellacking this week, but there’s a certain khaki-colored elephant in the room that needs addressing. Somehow, the Rebs have opened at home against Vanderbilt as 3.5-point favorites. That is crazy.

Now, we understand that opening lines are fluid subjects, but if you’re at all able, LOCK IN THAT COVER RIGHT NOW. Mercy.

What this cover probably reflects are the Rebs’ and Dores’ respective showings in Week 6, wherein Vandy failed hard against Georgia, 45-14, while the University of Ole Miss “only” lost to Auburn 44-23. Both Auburn and Georgia have looked impressive in their own respective ways, and something like a picture of each CFB team’s overall persona is coming into focus, but Ole Miss favored? Has Vegas been watching these guys the last few weeks? Is Vandy’s offense really that bad?

Well? Let’s take a look at the numbers. Bill C. at Football Study Hall has the projected final score for this weekend at 31.7-23.9, advantage Ole Miss. Perhaps our consternation is borne of utter pessimism after the last three outings. Cal began with jubilation, then Alabama was a disaster, and finally Auburn was ... well, I don’t know what Auburn was. I was elsewhere.

Ole Miss is, after all, averaging 37.0 points per game currently, while Vanderbilt is handing in just 27.0. It’s points against where things interesting, though, where Vandy’s allowing 27.5 to Ole Miss’ 47.7* (obviously, that is highly skewed by Bama’s 66 points against two weeks ago, but Auburn dropped 44 on them on Saturday, and things show no sign of abating). That discrepancy is where the real rub lies in a 4.5-point opening favor in the Rebs’ direction.

*These numbers are pulled from Bill C’s Football Study Hall numbers, which do not take into account garbage time.