Ole Miss vs. Arkansas: Box score rundown

While some may consider it more constructive to move on to the next game after last Saturday’s embarrassment, we’re not doing that quite yet. Part of that’s because there’s not all that much to look forward to anyway, but the other half is that this game is too absurd to ignore, serving as the most recent reminder of how weird this sub-rivalry can get.

Coughing up a 31-7 lead in just over a half feels close to unthinkable, but it’s becoming a bit easier to grasp as the game evolves. Jordan Ta’amu got the Rebels to this apex just 18 minutes into the game by leveraging pace, and it’s this same element that turned the tables so rapidly.

The times they reached the end zone in roughly a minute or less, they seemed unstoppable, posting video game numbers. But when things went south in any way, Arkansas took advantage and chipped away at the lead. Let’s try to make sense of this mess.

• A successful play occurs when you gain: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
• Explosive/big plays are defined here as runs of 12+ yards or passes of 16+ yards.
• A scoring opportunity is a first down inside the opponent’s 40-yard line.
• Passing downs are defined as second down with at least eight yards to go or third/fourth with at least five to go. All other situations are standard downs.

Given how efficient Ole Miss was for most of the day, you’d think they must have either lacked big plays or had trouble finishing drives to still end up losing. They actually excelled at both, and the only real edge the Hogs had was the turnover margin and resulting field position. That’s an understatement, though.

Immediately following each of the Rebels’ turnovers, Arkansas scored a touchdown. The scoop-and-score following Ta’amu’s fumble in the fourth comes to mind, but they also returned his pick in the second for 54 yards to set up a short field at the Rebels’ 21. Without just one of those plays, the story of this game may be about Ole Miss hanging on after a brilliant start. Instead, it’s something entirely different.

These were extremely on-brand performances for both offenses in terms of pace. Phil Longo’s group didn’t have a touchdown drive longer than a minute and eleven seconds, while the Razorbacks doubled the Rebels in time of possession.

Only two FBS teams (Temple and Arizona) bested Ole Miss’ yards per play mark of 9.6 in Week 9, making their defeat all the more insane. Following their last touchdown, Ole Miss gained 6.7 yards per play, which is still more than Arkansas’ average on the day. Football is weird.

The Rebels were moving the ball just fine until the fourth quarter, which is when they started struggling to finish critical drives, settling for field goals at the Hogs’ three and 19-yard line. They were enjoying steady gains on the ground through three quarters, putting up 9.3 yards per carry and a running success rate of 62 percent. They managed just 1.4 yards per carry and zero successful runs in the final period.

Breaking down big plays further separates these two offenses stylistically. Out of the Rebels’ 566 total yards, 420 came from big plays. Arkansas did gain chunks on occasion, but as shown by their 5.4 yards per play, their recipe to success was more of painfully steady ball movement.

Ta’amu was overall very efficient, especially deserving credit for consistently getting out of obvious passing situations. He did himself a favor by minimizing how often he got into late-down holes, and came up clutch more often than not here with a passing downs success rate of 55 percent through the air.

It’s generally a good idea to target A.J. Brown more than two times.

As leaky as the defense was Saturday, they did one thing right by forcing redshirt freshman Cole Kelley to pass more than he probably wanted to, and he was predictably bad. It’s too bad the run defense hasn’t gotten any better.

• Opportunity Rate is the percentage of carries that gain 5+ yards.
• Stuff Rate is the percentage of runs that are stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
• Highlight Yards per Opportunity measures how much you’re able to do after getting to the second level of the defense.
• QB runs don’t include sacks.

Ta’amu was a legitimate running threat against Arkansas, reaching the second level on half of his carries and taking off for a 49-yard score in the first quarter. Following Jordan Wilkins’ 64-yard touchdown run on the second play of the game, he gained just 3.6 yards per carry. That big gain still happened, though, and he’s now averaging 6.7 yards per carry over the last five games.

Havoc plays are tackles for loss + passes defensed + forced fumbles.