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Ole Miss opens as 3.5-point favorite over Arkansas

That feels about right.

NCAA Football: Auburn at Arkansas Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Ole Miss and Arkansas will engage in their annual ass-kicking contest on Saturday, and the Rebs opened as four-point favorites, but that soon dropped down to 3.5 points, according to Chase Parham at the Ole Miss Spirit. According to Oddsshark, the over/under for Saturday’s tussle is 64 total points, with a predicted final score of 30.6-27, Ole Miss. Probably the only thing holding Ole Miss in such high regard is that they’re playing in Oxford, and even that ain’t a reassuring notion, betting advice or otherwise.

What’s great about this betting line is that no one ever knows what will transpire between these teams. Remember 2015’s edition? That thing was weird and whacky and wild as all hell. Ole Miss has topped 30 points just three times this season, against South Alabama, UT-Martin, and Vanderbilt. Arkansas has eclipsed 27 points three times as well this year, against Florida A&M, Texas A&M, and New Mexico State. The RazorPig offense is averaging 32.0 points per game not counting garbage time, according to Bill C.’s advanced state. Ole Miss is currently scoring at a rate of 35.8 points per game.

Bill C. in fact gives the Rebs a 62 percent win probability on Saturday, with a projected final score of 34.6-29.3, advantage Ole Miss. His projected margin of victory is in the neighborhood of 5.2 points, so it’d be unsurprising to see that 3.5-point betting line move up and down as the week progresses and you degenerates lay money either for or against the spread. Off the top of my head, I’m inclined to say that Ole Miss covers, because Arkansas is trash right now. BERT’s men have seemingly given up on everything, particularly defense, where they’re allowing the 101st-ranked efficiency rate to opponents.

What’s dropped the betting line down to 3.5 points is the notable absence of one Shea Patterson from Ole Miss’ offensive attack. With the relatively unknown quantity of Jordan Ta’amu expected to be the starter at QB moving forward, Ole Miss’ future offensive production remains a sizable question mark.

In any case, if you’re feeling particularly adventurous with your well earned dollars, go take a stab at the Rebs covering on Saturday. If you’re a prudent and wise college football bettor, your money is better risked elsewhere. STAY AWAY.