FanPost

And then there were two





As I write this on November 16, 2015, we have just watched an interesting weekend of football. Our rebels finally got a weekend off. I am sure that they celebrated by watching Arkansas laying a beat down on LSU. Surprisingly, considering our bipolar nature this year, we are still in the race for the SEC West although we need help from Auburn of all teams. Listed here are all the possible scenarios for the SEC West: If Alabama beats Auburn (most likely scenario), they finish with just one loss in the conference and win the west outright.

If Alabama loses to Auburn, Alabama finishes with two losses in the conference. Any team with three losses has already been mathematically eliminated. We have to look a little at tie situations with the three two loss teams, however—Arkansas, LSU and Ole Miss.

In a two way tie with Arkansas, Alabama will go to Atlanta by virtue of a head-to-head win.

In a two way tie with LSU, Alabama will go to Atlanta by virtue of a head-to-head win.

In a two way tie with Alabama, Ole Miss will go to Atlanta by virtue of a head-to-head win.

Now let’s look at three way tie possibilities.

If Alabama, LSU and Arkansas end up in a three way tie, Alabama will go to Atlanta by virtue of head-to-head wins over both of the other tied teams.

The interesting scenario is a three way tie between Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Since Alabama beat Arkansas, Arkansas beat Ole Miss and Ole Miss beat Alabama, head-to-head results cannot be the deciding tie breaker. Going to the next tiebreaker, record against SEC West teams, Alabama would be 4-2, Arkansas would be 4-2 and Ole Miss would be 5-1. In this scenario, Ole Miss would represent the west.

The bottom line, is that every team in the west has been eliminated from title contention other than Alabama and Ole Miss. Although the odds overwhelmingly favor Alabama, Ole Miss still has a shot. If Alabama beats Auburn or Ole Miss loses another game, then Ole Miss will be eliminated and Alabama will go. Auburn over Alabama would be a big upset, but then it is a series that has seen big upsets in the past. Ole Miss beating both LSU and Mississippi State is a tough row to hoe, but certainly in the realm of possibility. All of the above happening is quite a longshot, however. Just take care of business and see where the cards fall.

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.