2013 Music City Bowl: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Statistical Preview

[Fit4LifeLLC put in a ton of effort this season to comb through and compile stats on the Rebels and their opponents. He deserves at least a modicum of our gratitude, y'all.]

On Monday afternoon, the Ole Miss Rebels will try and extend their bowl game win streak to six, not to mention and ten victories in the last 11 appearances, when they face the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech in the Music City Bowl. The game will kick off at 2:15 PM, and will be broadcast on ESPN.

Georgia Tech is appearing in their impressive 17th straight bowl and, led by the old-school Paul Johnson, they hope to utilize their option attack to win their second straight.

The match up between the Jackets and Rebels is an intriguing one. After both teams dropped their in-state rivalry games to close the season in on sour notes, it will be interesting to see which of the two 7-5 teams is more motivated and prepared to win.

Regarding styles of play, these two teams could not be more different, with the Rebels trying to play an up tempo style of play characterized by read-option runs and quick passes contrasting with Georgia Tech's run heavy triple option attack. If you like "non-traditional" (see: "not found much in the NFL") football, then this bowl matchup is perhaps one of the most interesting ones you'll find this offseason.

In an article linked on the Cup earlier this week, some of the guys at From the Rumble Seat, SB Nation's Georgia Tech community, provided some great statistical analysis for this game. Here we will offer a slightly different perspective by looking at individual and team statistics, to highlight who for the Jackets team has performed exceptionally well while looking at what these teams have done on the aggregate.

Georgia Tech is led by Vad "Is-that-short-for-‘Vadamir'-or-something" Lee at quarterback. Although, Lee is not asked to attempt many passes per game in this scheme (just under 12/game), he is averaging close to 9 yards per attempt and has 10 TD's through the air on the year.

Georgia Tech Passing Leaders

Name	Comp/Att	Yards	Int	TDs	Comp %	Effeciency
Vad Lee	77/163	1414	9	10	47.2	129.31
Justin Thomas	9/17	131	2	1	52.9	113.55
Tim Byerly	1/4	3	0	0	25	31.3

On the ground, look for David Sims to get a load of the carries aside from Lee. Sims could go over the 1000 yard mark on the season with a big game against the Rebels. Ole Miss will also need to keep a close eye on Robert Godhigh, as he has tons of big play capability. He is second on the team in rushing and the Jackets' leading receiver.

Georgia Tech Rushing Leaders

Name	Attempts	Yards	TDs	Average/Game	Long
David SIms	151	846	11	70.5	39
Robert Godhigh	69	694	6	57.8	65
Vad Lee	166	489	8	40.8	21
Zach Laskey	79	458	7	38.2	33

Georgia Tech Receiving Leaders

Name	Receptions	Yards	TDs	Average/Game	Long
Robert Godhigh	21	420	2	35	43
DeAndre Smelter	21	345	4	28.8	42
Darren Waller	15	288	2	26.2	68
Micheal Summers	10	211	0	17.6	54

Tech is strong defensively, and have one of the better rush defenses the Rebs will have faced. They are somewhat more vulnerable against the pass, but they do manage to keep opponents from scoring - which is obviously the most important thing they can do.

	GT Offense	GT Defense
Scoring	439	272
First Downs	265	228
Rushing Yardage	3740	1284
Passing Yardage	1548	2922
Total Offense	5288	4206
Avg Per Game	440.7	350.5
Average Per Play	6.2	5.5
Total Plays	850	765

	OM Offense	OM Defense
Scoring	365	291
First Downs	289	248
Rushing Yardage	2249	1863
Passing Yardage	3427	2655
Total Offense	5676	4518
Total Plays	934	851
Average Per Play	6.1	5.3
Avg Per Game	473	376.5

Tech also has good special teams, plays well on third down, and is highly effective in the red zone.

	OM	GT
Turnovers	20	22
Punting	46 for 37.8 yds net	39 for 37.8 yds net
Time of Possession	29:29:00	33:50:00
3rd Conversion %	46%	52%
4th Conversion %	52%	44%
Sacks For	19 for 134 yds	32 for 219 yds
FG	15/21	9 for 13
Red Zone Scoring	76%	90%
Penalties	43.8 yds/game	40.8 yds/game

GT Defensive Leaders

Name	Tackles (Total)	TFL	Turnover Plays	Sacks	PBU's
Jamea Thomas	73	3.5	3	2	8
Brandon Watts	59	3.5	2	2.5	1
Quayshawn Nealy	57	3.5	4	0	2
Jabari Hunt-Days	44	7	1	2.5	1
Demond Smith	43	3	0	0.5	4
Jeremiah Attaochu	40	15.5	0	12	2
Paul Davis	39	5	1	1	1

Ole Miss Defensive Leaders

Name	Tackles (Total)	TFL	Turnover Plays	Sacks	PBU's
Serdarius Bryant	70	10.5	0	3	1
Cody Prewitt	70	4	6	0	7
Tony Connor	59	4	1	1	5
Trae Elston	59	1	1	0	6
Mike Marry	49	4	1	1	1
Mike Hilton	48	5	1	0	4

Team Stats	OM (FBS Rank)	GT (FBS Rank)
Total Yards	21st	40th
Passing Yards	24th	118th
Rushing Yards	43rd	5th
Scoring Offense	60th	23rd
Points Against	41st	30th
Rushing Defense	53rd	9th
Passing Defense	46th	84th
Total Defense	43rd	21st
Turnover Margin	tied 60th	tied 78th
Pass Defense Efficiency	45th	81st
First Downs Offense	30th	tied 56th
3rd Down Conversions	27th	4th

Looking at the Jackets, one must wonder if their discrepancy on defense between the run and pass is a function of facing a run heavy offense in practice. I also haven't looked at their box scores this season, but such figures might also be a function of their lead margins and the down-and-distance their opponents face on 2^nd and 3^rd downs. The Georgia Tech secondary has been very opportunistic in forcing interceptions, a lot of which has to do with the pressure placed on opposing quarterbacks by of this has to do with Jeremiah Attaochu who leads the Jackets with 12 sacks and 15.5 TFL's.

Keys for a Rebel win:

1. Offensive line must control the line of scrimmage (Laremy Tunsil playing against Attaochu is crucial for the Rebels - we do not yet know how his knee is holding up in practices, but we're not optimistic).
2. The Rebel offense needs to play with balance and score early to force Georgia Tech to play from behind.
3. The defense must play very disciplined and control their gaps to contain what is a potent option rushing attack. Ideally, Dave Wommack's familiarity with GT (he was the DC there for the 2008 and 2009 seasons) will help here.