Statistical Preview: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Auburn Tigers

[Now that we've got a decent-but-not-good-and-far-from-great sample size of games to work with, Fit4LifeLLC and I - but mostly him - will work to give you a look at the numbers heading into our opponents for the remainder of the season. This week, Auburn's up.]

When the season began, we cited 5 pivotal games, (@ Vanderbilt, @ Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri and @ Mississippi State) for the Rebels. These games are all against teams which are either improving or at venues in which the Rebs have trouble - if not both for the cause of Auburn. In the first of these games, the season opener at Vanderbilt, the Rebels were able to win in dramatic fashion 39-35 behind the play of Jeff Scott in the fourth quarter. The second of those pivotal games comes in Auburn Saturday against a much improved team from a year ago. The Tigers under Gus Malzahn's leadership are playing much harder this season and seem to have found an identity, something which was significantly lacking in Chizik's final two years on the plains. Both teams enter Saturday at 3-1 on the season after losing to two of the top teams in the SEC West (and, by extension, the country) in Alabama and LSU.

The similarities between these two teams goes beyond the styles of football they play. Both teams play an up-tempo style of offense, try and stay ahead of schedule in down and distance, and create 3rd and manageable situations for their quarterbacks.  Defensively, both create multiple looks for opposing offenses and overcome size mismatches with athleticism and disguised blitzes. Additionally, both Head Coaches have had a working relationship dating back to their high school coaching days, and both staffs have members that are familiar with the others' systems. I will not go so far as to suggest some type of "SiskeyGate" that we saw with the Alabama game but it should be interesting to watch what wrinkles have been developed for this game, considering the similarities and familiarities between these two coaching staffs.

Much has also been made of how similar Auburn looks to last years Rebel squad, although I think Auburn might be slightly ahead of where the Rebels were last season in that quite a few players on Auburn's current roster are players that were recruited to play in Malzahn's system. They've got some athletic players and also brought in a top-10 recruiting class this past offseason. Because of this, Rebel fans should be wary of considering this game a win simply based upon last year's performance. Also, the Tigers are at home, a place where the Rebels have not been historically successful, and they are coming off of a bye week. The oddsmakers in Vegas tend to agree with this assessment as the line currently sits at a 2.5 point spread with the Rebels favored (which suggests that the Rebs would only be favored by a touchdown at home). For the Rebels to have a chance to get into the 7-9 win range this season and improve off of last year's win total, this Saturday's match up is crucial.

As far as how the teams look statistically, the breakdowns look like this:

Auburn's Passing Leaders

Auburn's Rushing Leaders

Auburn's Receiving Leaders

Auburns Offense and Defense Team Statistics

AU                                  AU DEFENSE

By Comparison Ole Miss Offense and Defense Team Statistics

OM                                 OM DEFENSE

Misc Statistical Comparisons

For the Rebels to win Saturday against Auburn they must:

1) Run the ball effectively

2) Win 1st down both offensively and defensively

3) Limit turnovers