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Statistical Analysis: Vanderbilt

How do the Ole Miss Rebels stack up against the Vanderbilt Commodores.

By The Ghost of Jay Cutler
Frederick Breedon

[ED: Methodology and ideas behind this? Click here.]

In this matchup of a pair of middling SEC teams on the verge of bowl eligibility, we will see a classic matchup of an offensively oriented team facing a defensively oriented team. The numbers look something like this:

CATEGORY Raw Vandy Raw OM "Betterness" Ratio Advantage:
Scoring O 25.4 29.9 1.18 Ole Miss
Total O 385.1 408.2 1.06 Ole Miss
Scoring D 17.1 27.8 0.62 Vandy
Total D 316.2 387.7 0.82 Vandy
Rush O 172.9 177.9 1.03 Ole Miss
Rush D 164.3 148.1 1.11 Ole Miss
Pass O 212.2 230.3 1.09 Ole Miss
Pass D 151.9 239.6 0.63 Vandy
Pass E 135.5 139.6 1.03 Ole Miss
Pass ED 99.6 142.5 0.70 Vandy
Sacks 20 27 1.35 Ole Miss
Sacks Against 18 26 0.69 Vandy
3rd Down 33.8 45.7 1.35 Ole Miss
Opp 3rd Down 30.8 42.3 0.73 Vandy
Penalties 44.9 34.7 1.29 Ole Miss
Red Zone O 71.9 93.3 1.30 Ole Miss
Red Zone D 77.8 75.8 1.03 Ole Miss

Graphically, that looks something like this:

Screen_shot_2012-11-08_at_8

Also of note, Ole Miss' turnover margin is at 0, whereas Vanderbilt's is at -4.

Looking at this, the only conclusion I can reach is that something has got to give this Saturday. Both of our teams' advantages play against each other. We have a better scoring offense, they have a better scoring defense. We have a beter total offense, they have a better total defense. We have the better pass offense, they have the better pass defense. We have more sacks, they give up fewer sacks. We're better at converting third downs, they're better at stopping third down conversions.

Seeing this and considering what these programs have on the line, I think this should be a close one.