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The Wild Wild West: A Pipe Dream

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After the loss to Alabama, Nutt said that he'd been around the league for too long to think that the West race was over.  He said he still believed in his team.  Many fans snickered and threw in the towel.  "Alabama is unbeatable!" others yelled.  About two and a half weeks later, we are realizing that Alabama is beatable.  We also realize that we are getting better. 

Do we have a chance of winning the SEC West? Why yes, we do.  Is it a small one?  Yes, it is.  

 The SEC West standings are as follows:

Alabama 5-0

LSU 4-1

Ole Miss 2-2

Auburn 2-3

Miss State  1-3

Arkansas 1-4

Nerd analysis after the jump.

One of our writers erroneously reported that we were mathematically eliminated from the SEC West race.  WRONG.  

Alabama has three SEC games remaining, and they are all against SEC West opponents: Mississippi State, LSU, and Auburn.

LSU has three SEC games remaining, and they are all against SEC West opponents: Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas.

Ole Miss has four SEC games remaining, and they are against: Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, and Mississippi State.

In order for there to be a tie (from which we can benefit), Alabama must lose to LSU and one of the other teams.  LSU must beat Bama and lose only to us.  We must win out.  

Then Bama, LSU, and Ole miss all have 6-2 SEC records.  

From this page on the SEC website, I gathered the following information on tie-breakers:  

THREE (OR MORE) TEAM TIE

  1.  (Once the tie has been reduced to two teams, go to the two-team tie-breaker format.)
  2.  Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams.
  3.  Record of the tied teams within the division.

The head-to-head step means nothing because no one team has the advantage over the others.  The next step is the divisional record.  Ole Miss and LSU would have 4-1 divisional records while Alabama would have a 3-2 divisional record.  Therefore, Alabama is eliminated, and per the first step listed, LSU and Ole Miss will go to the two team tie breaker format.

A. TWO-TEAM TIE

  1.  Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.

Ole Miss has the head-to-head advantage.  Therefore, we go to Atlanta!!!  Hey, it could happen, right?