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Ole Miss Rebels vs. LSU Tigers Baseball Preview and Open Thread

2013-05-16T17:46:28Z

Mike Bianco is 6-12 all time in Baton Rouge. He averages one win for every series visit down yonder. Considering how we've looked as of late and how they've looked, I'd say that snagging a victory away from the Tigers in Alex Box to ensure a .500 SEC record wouldn't be a particularly bad outcome whatsoever.

Regardless, here's what you should look for this weekend out of the Tigers both on the bump and in the box.

LSU Probable Starters

Thursday - Cody Glenn (Soph. LHP) - Glenn is currently 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA on the year through 12 starts. Through 68.0 innings pitched, Glenn has allowed 27 runs (21 earned) off 57 hits. Glenn has 33 strike outs to go along with 16 walks. Opponents are hitting .231 off Cody thus far this season. Cody has only allowed 11 extra-base hits all season in 247 at-bats. Glenn is a crafty lefty which has been a problem all year for the Rebels.

Friday - Kurt McCune (Jr. RHP) - Saturday is usually Aaron Nola's spot in the rotation but luckily LSU has decided to rest him this weekend. McCune will be making only his 4^th start of the season and is currently 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA (7 appearances). Through 13.1 innings pitched, McCune has allowed 5 runs (5 earned) off 15 hits. He has 8 strikeouts to go along with 4 walks, and opponents are hitting .283 off him thus far this season.

Saturday - Ryan Eades (Jr. RHP) - Ryan Eades currently posts a 8-1 record with a 2.29 ERA in 13 starts. Through 82.2 innings pitched, Eades has allowed 24 runs (21 earned) off 83 hits. Ryan has 69 strikeouts to go along with 23 walks, and opponents are hitting .265 off him. Eades has only allowed 11 extra-base hits in 313 at-bats.

Team Pitching Ranks in Conference:

2^nd in ERA (2.37) (OM 5^th at 2.92)
3^rd in opposing batting average (.216) (OM 5^th at .240)
4^th in strikeouts (412) (OM 7^th with 379)
T-3^rd in hits allowed (377) (OM 4^th with 423)
2^nd in runs allowed (148) (OM 6^th with 194)
2^nd in walks allowed (129) (OM 11^th with 187)
T-2^nd in HR allowed (15) (OM 9^th with 22)

National Pitching Ranks

2^nd in ERA (OM is 19^th nationally)
2^nd in WHIP
7^th in BBs per 9 innings
6^th in K-BB ratio
7^th in Hits Allowed per 9 Innings

The Rebels are lucky in the sense that LSU isn't going to pitch Aaron Nola (10-0, 1.99 ERA), but as you can see they have plenty of other good arms to throw. LSU ranks in the top 10 nationally in almost every major pitching category. Runs will be at a premium this weekend so the Rebels will need to find a way to get some clutch hits, which they have struggled with all season.

LSU Bats

As always, the numbers you see in batting stats represent the following in this exact order: Avg HR RBI SLG% OBP% SB/ATT SO/BB. If you don't know what that means, then watch more baseball.

LSU, as a team, looks something like this: .312 37 326 .443 .395 46/68 258/230

Individual Season Statistics

Alex Bregman .393 5 47 .589 .443 13/14 18/22

Mason Katz .380 13 63 .656 .472 5/12 30/30

Raph Rhymes .343 2 37 .448 .414 2/3 26/22

Sean McMullen .339 1 25 .500 .436 0/2 15/19

Christian Ibarra .337 5 33 .497 .430 0/3 27/25

Key Reserves (minimum 50 AB's)

Tyler Moore .286 0 7 .429 .338 0/0 1/5

Chris Sciambra .258 0 6 .337 .407 2/2 24/17

Other key notes:

The Tigers are scoring 6.85 runs per game.
LSU boasts a very impressive 32-3 home record on the year.
They've done this by only giving up a total of 148 runs on the season (2.79 per game).

The Rebels currently sit as the 5th seed in the SEC Tournament and taking 2 of 3 would probably keep them there, sweeping most likely locks them in as that seed and keeps any slim NCAA regional hosting discussion going. Losing 2 of 3 or getting swept means the Rebels would most likely slip in their seeding, but not enough do too much damage in the SEC Tournament. That does mean, of course, that they'd lose whatever chance they've got, as slim as it may be, to host an NCAA regional.

As always, BeardedGinger and Fit4LifeLLC deserve our undying praise for their contributions to this week's preview.

TLV #180 - Ole Miss vs. LSU and Beyond

2013-05-16T17:23:22Z

In college baseball, perhaps no group of teams can boast as much talent and parity as those in the Southeastern Conference's Western Division. No team within this seven-team group has below a .500 record overall, nor have they any SEC records below the .400 mark. Compare that to the SEC's Eastern Division, which has a total of three teams - Tennessee, Missouri, and Georgia - with overall records below .500 and sub-.300 records in conference play.

Six of the seven teams in the SEC West are within just a handful of games of each other, with a handful of these teams - including our Ole Miss Rebels - being essentially interchangeable in terms of talent level and on-field production. Only one of these teams can realistically stand out among the rest as the best in this division, crossing the threshold from a good college baseball team to that of a great or even elite college baseball team.

Unfortunately, that team just so happens to be the team the Rebels will close the season out against this weekend: the LSU Tigers.

LSU is the 2013 Champion of the SEC's Western Division, finishing last weekend with an impressive 45-7 overall record and a 21-6 SEC record. They are the only opponent separating Ole Miss from the SEC Baseball Tournament and the NCAA postseason. Thankfully, Ole Miss has a strong enough resume and the teams ranked below our Rebels have weak enough resumes that it is all but impossible for Mike Bianco's team to miss postseason contention. Still, quality wins against the Tigers in Baton Rouge, as difficult as they may be to come by, could go a long way in terms of postseason seeding, making this weekend series somewhat important for the Rebs in a way that it is not for LSU.

It is unlikely that the Rebels will sweep the Tigers en route to a subsequent SEC Baseball Tournament Championship, so let's take a realistic approach to our expectations of this weekend, its likely outcome, and what that means for this team's postseason chances.

With their spot in the SEC Tournament and as NCAA regional hosts all but guaranteed, LSU has opted to sit ace Aaron Nola, easily one of the best pitchers in all of college baseball, this weekend against the Rebs. If the No. 14-ranked Rebels can take advantage of this behind the arm of our ace, Bobby Wahl, and win just one game against the No. 3-ranked Tigers this weekend, they will finish with a respectable 15-15 record in SEC play and a third or fourth place finish in the SEC West (the Rebs are currently tied for third with the No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs, who finish the regular season with a series at the No. 12 South Carolina Gamecocks). As disappointing as that may be for Ole Miss baseball fans to stomach, who have grown accustomed to better than .500 marks in SEC play as of late, it would not at all hurt this team's chances at a two seed in one of the NCAA's 16 postseason regionals.

Projections for experts and armchair pundits alike have the Rebels as such a seed in Charlottesville, Virginia to Eugene, Oregon and seemingly every place in between. In short, the Rebs will have to travel a long way and prove their mettle against a top team outside of the SEC if they are to advance to an NCAA super regional. If that outcome seems unlikely then, well, that's because it is. The Rebels have not succeeded as of late as a visiting team in an NCAA regional, losing in the College Station regional last year and the Charlottesville regional two seasons before that.

This team is good enough to be competitive, but not nearly as deep to take a series from a better team, especially outside of the friendly confines of Swayze Field. The bats are simply not as powerful as we need them to be, especially to overcome the inexperience which characterizes much of the Rebel bullpen. As much as I would like to see otherwise this weekend against LSU and in the following weekends of the NCAA postseason, what we've seen thus far out of this team is likely a pretty good indicator of the immediate things to come.

That said though, the NCAA postseason has shown that any number of improbable things can and do happen. The Stony Brooks and Fresno States of the world - who have in recent years shocked the college baseball elite with their performances in the College World Series - have proven this. Could Ole Miss get hot and streak its way into Omaha? Sure. Is it likely? Not at all, so don't get your hopes up.

And even if we did, we'd so get obliterated by Vanderbilt in the World Series anyway. It's the only thing that would make sense at that point.

Hotty Toddy, go Rebels, beat LSU, and make me eat crow.

The Nkemdiche Brothers are Staying in Shape this Summer

2013-05-15T19:55:46Z

For those of you worried that the incoming freshman defensive tackle might not be in proper college football shape or have the size necessary to compete right away in the Southeastern Conference, worry no longer.

Good workout in with my bro @denzelnkemdiche love my bro we starve and eat together . instagram.com/p/ZToP6iCs2d/
— Robert Nkemdiche (@Aceboogie_001) May 14, 2013

Obviously that's Freshman All-American Ole Miss Rebel linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche on his left. Denzel is listed as being 5'11" and 203 pounds. If that is to be believed, then his "little" brother Robert is conceivably bigger than the 6'5", 265 pounds he is listed as by ESPN.

Oh, and he's yet to take his first course at Ole Miss as a freshman. It is nearly inconceivable that an 18-year-old can have the build of a rookie in the NFL, but Nkemdiche does. This doesn't lead me to predict any sort of Freshman all-American honors or anything of that sort, but it does serve as evidence enough of his ability to contribute in this league and as a member of this team's defensive line from day one.

Wednesday Question: One of Precaution

2013-05-15T13:06:08Z

How do you feel about Paul Mainieri's decision to rest Aaron Nola this weekend against our Rebs?

Right Field Review - Week 13

2013-05-14T14:41:47Z

Last week: 2-1

Overall: 35-17 (14-13)

Rankings
Baseball America: 21 (prev. 23)
USA Today Coaches Poll: 14 (prev. 20)
Perfect Game: 20 (prev. NR)

Results
May 10-12: vs #13 Mississippi State - W 3-0, W 10-8, L 7-6

Ole Miss 3, Mississippi State 0
A rain delay couldn't slow down the Rebels as they used an unorthodox pitching combination to be the first team to shut out State this season. After Bobby Wahl (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R) struck out the side in the top of the first Friday night, rain forced the suspension of the game and set up a double header for Saturday. Mike Mayers (7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R) picked up where Wahl left off, pitching seven masterful "relief" innings to hold the Bulldogs off the board. Will Allen (2-for-3, 1 RBI, 1 HR) got things going offensively with a solo home run in the fifth inning. A bases loaded walk extended the lead in the fifth to 2-0 and sac-fly in the eighth from Austin Knight capped the scoring. Two walks from Brett Huber (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R) put the tying run at the plate in the top of the ninth, but a ~~missed~~ questionable strike three call ended the threat and preserved the win.

Ole Miss 10, Mississippi State 8
The Rebel bats showed up in a big way, but shabby relief pitching kept thing interesting up until the last out. The Rebels entered the top of the ninth with a three run lead, and a walk and two quick outs from Tanner Bailey (2.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R) looked to end things quietly. But back-to-back singles cut the lead to two and put two men on. A short line drive to center looked as if it would score the tying run, but a sliding catch from Auston Bousfield saved the day. It was part of a big day for Boz, who went 3-for-5 with five RBIs, three of which came on a triple in the first inning to give his team an early 3-0 lead. Despite getting into trouble in the first and third innings, Sam Smith (6.0 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 ER) did a great job minimizing damage. The Rebel bullpen struggled mightily however, allowing five runs to score over the course of the last three innings.

Mississippi State 7, Ole Miss 6
After being handed a six-run lead, the Ole Miss pitching staff imploded to surrender seven unanswered runs and miss the sweep opportunity. Wahl (5.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R), back on the hill after throwing one inning in Friday's rainout, cruised through the first five innings but ran into trouble when he loaded the bases with one out in the top of the sixth. Jeremy Massie (0.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R) would allow all three runs to score plus two of his own before Scott Weathersby (0.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R) could finally cap the disastrous five-run frame. Weathersby then allowed two baserunners to reach with no outs in the seventh, and a two-out, two-RBI single to right off of Matt Denny (2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R) completed the Bulldog comeback.

Numbers Game
- Sunday marked only the fourth time the Rebels have lost after scoring in the first inning. On the year they have outscored opponents 55-21 in the first inning and are now 17-4 when getting on the board in the opening frame.
- Though the Rebels rank in the bottom half of the SEC for in-conference batting average and total hits, they're still managing to reach base at an effective pace. Thanks in part to 100 walks and 27 hit-by-pitches, Ole Miss is fourth in the conference with a .343 OBP.
- Its been a rough stretch for the Rebel bullpen. Rebel relief pitchers have surrendered a lead in five of the past nine conference games and hold a 6.48 ERA in that stretch.

Past the Foul Pole
- State's Alex Detz was perhaps the ugliest opponent we've faced all season. He earned the nickname "Smeagle" from the right field haters.
- After struggling through the season with his new lame-ass walkout song, Will Allen returned to "Strong Tower" Saturday. In his second at-bat of the game, and with the praise hands in full force in right field, he belted a solo shot to give the Rebs the lead. Is that you God?
- Yellow Cup won all three races last weekend... but was disqualified for cheating each time. He (She? It?) got creative, coming out of a side gate, riding a bike, and catching a ride on a golf cart. Yellow finishes the 2013 campaign without a single victory. Better luck next year.

This Week
May 14: at Southern Miss
May 17-19: at #3 LSU

Poll

Which Rebel was last week's MVP?

Rebel Roundup - May 13, 2013

2013-05-13T13:24:36Z

Squirrel, you're not a graduate. You're several credits shy. Go home, Squirrel, you're drunk. You're embarrassing your family, Squirrel.

Rebels Sweep Doubleheader With Mississippi State | OleMissSports.com
The Rebels took down the Bulldogs in two straight games on Saturday... only to lose a six-run lead on Sunday in late innings. Still, many of us were anticipating a series loss and, outside of literally just a couple of innings (that's baseball), the team certainly looked much better than we expected.

Daniel Gresham officially decommits from the Texas Longhorns | SBNation.com
As expected for some time, Fort Worth (Texas) All Saints running back/fullback Daniel Gresham has decided to open up his recruitment and end his commitment to the Texas Longhorns. Our Rebels are looking like a favorite to land the big-bodied runner, who could become an SEC-ready H-Back or tight end if he keeps putting on size.

Ole Miss releases official post-spring depth chart, with few surprises | Ole Miss sports
How'd we miss this last week? Regardless, there isn't too much of note in the current Rebel depth chart, simply because this team returns so many starters from last season. My only real first impressions are that I have no idea who our starting tight ends are, I'm discouraged by our defensive line depth chart, and Nick Brassell's falling stock is probably a harbinger of bad things to come regarding his eligibility.

SEC football's 7-year title reign, and all the times it could've ended | SBNation.com
Of course the Southeastern Conference has dominated college football in a way no other conference ever has, but so very many things have had to work in the conference's favor (or rather in the favor of the conference's institutions) for this to be a case. This is truly a revealing read at just how convoluted and suspenseful - both meant in a good way - the college football system is.

Finally something the SEC Sucks at | DudeYouCrazy
The SEC sucks at charging a buyout, in that there isn't a contractually mandated amount between the conference and its member institutions. I'll let you venture a guess as to why that may be the case.

Blind Jim at an Ole Miss football game, 1947 | Vimeo
Here is what is perhaps the earliest color footage of Ole Miss football. In this video, you'll see Blind Jim Ivy in the stands for an Ole Miss vs. (presumably) Georgia Tech game. It is really neat to see Charlie Conerly, the Rebel quarterback of the time who would go on to star for the New York Giants, in color.

Rare 1952 Film: William Faulkner on His Native Soil in Oxford, Mississippi | Open Culture
So while we're taking steps back into time, why not take a look at Oxford in the 1950's and the day-to-day life of her most famous native son, William Cuthbert Faulkner. There is some excellent footage here of Faulkner, other Oxonians, and the Square as it appears only in ~~Pat Patterson's wet dreams~~ our memories.

Ole Miss Baseball: Rebels vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview and Open Thread

2013-05-10T19:52:38Z

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Well, last week went poorly. The chances of hosting are pretty much gone now. If Ole Miss could win the last two series against MSU and LSU, they would position themselves strongly as a two seed in regional play. This team just doesn't have bats, and that's not going to miraculously change. The only hope for much postseason success comes by winning some very tight games with our strong pitching staff. The relief pitchers haven't been at their best lately, but we know they're capable of strong play. As for Mississippi State, they could be trouble.

Game Times

Friday - 6:30 CT

Saturday - 4:00 CT

Sunday - 1:00 CT (CSS)

Mississippi State Probable Starters

Friday - Luis Pollorena (Sr. LHP) - Luis Pollorena is currently 6-2 with a 3.92 ERA in 15 appearances (8 starts). Through 59.2 innings pitched, Pollorena has allowed 29 runs (26 earned) off 57 hits. Luis has 54 strike outs to go along with 30 walks. He has also allowed a team high 15 extra base hits this season. Opponents are hitting .256 off him this season. Pollorena posts a career record of 16-7.

Saturday - Kendall Graveman (Sr. RHP) - Kendall Graveman is the unquestioned ace of the MSU pitching staff. Graveman is currently 5-4 with a 2.47 ERA through 12 starts. Through 76.2 innings pitched, Graveman has allowed 29 runs (21 earned) off 75 hits. Graveman is giving up more hits this season as compared to the past few seasons, but he is getting a good amount of double plays keeping runners from crossing home plate. Kendall has 50 strike outs to go along with 19 walks. Opponents are hitting .260 off him this season. Graveman has a career 16-12 record.

Sunday - Jacob Lindgren (Soph. LHP) - Jacob Lindgren is currently 4-2 with a 3.44 ERA through 11 starts. Through 59.2 innings pitched, Lindgren has allowed 22 runs (18 earned) off 57 hits. Jacob has struck out 58 batters while walking 14. Opponents are hitting .234 against him this season, and Jacob has only allowed 5 extra-base hits this season.

Other Pitchers to Keep an Eye on:

Ross Mitchell - Mitchell is usually the first man out of the bullpen for the Bulldogs. He has a 9-0 record with a 1.32 ERA this season. The Rebels will be seeing this man a lot over the weekend.

Jonathan Holder - This sophomore close is having another tremendous year. You may remember last year when he set the MSU record for scoreless innings streak at 27.1 innings. He only allowed a single earned run and finished the year with a 0.32 ERA. Thus far this season he is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA with 13 saves.

Chad Girodo - Girodo has a 4-1 record with a 1.16 ERA. Only allowed 3 earned runs in 23.1 innnigs.

Team Pitching Ranks in Conference:

4th in ERA (2.58) (OM 5th at 2.68)
4th in opposing batting average (.219) (OM 5th at .233)
1st in strikeouts (410) (OM 7th with 353)
3rd in hits allowed (346) (OM 5th with 378)
4th in runs allowed (157) (OM 5th with 169)
T-8th in walks allowed (164) (OM 11th with 172)
4th in HR allowed (15) (OM 8th with 21)

Pitching Ranks Nationally

MSU is 10th nationally in ERA (OM is 13th nationally)
MSU is 14th nationally in WHIP
MSU is 8th nationally in Hits Allowed per 9 Innings

As you can see, the MSU staff is pretty similar to the Ole Miss staff, so you should know what to expect out of the MSU pitchers. The biggest thing that stands out is that MSU is 1st in the SEC in strikeouts and 2nd in the SEC in strike outs looking with 146 while Ole Miss has struck out the 3rd least in the SEC this season (I'll be honest, I figured that number would have been more like 3rd most rather than 3rd least). MSU is 12th nationally with 8.4 strike outs per 9 innings. I think that will be a key matchup this weekend as Ole Miss should get some men on base but can they avoid the strike outs in crucial situations (History seems to not be in Ole Miss' favor this weekend). If you like pitching, then this is going to be a fun weekend for you. If State can get the ball to Mitchell and/or Holder with a lead then it may be a rough weekend for the Diamond Rebels.

MSU's Offense

MSU is 7-7 on the road this year and averages 6.3 runs per game this year (4.5 in conference play)

Batting Stats (sorry these don't paste well)

Season Stats Avg HR RBI SLG% OBP% SB/ATT SO/BB
.294 24 275 .406 .394 51/67 316/222
Conference .268 16 107 .369 .359 13/20 173/94

Individual Conference Stats

Avg HR RBI SLG% OBP% SB/ATT SO/BB
Hunter Renfroe .368 9 20 .724 .491 3/5 17/21
Brett Pirtle .345 1 12 .417 .444 3/3 12/6
Sam Frost .345 0 1 .379 .375 3/3 7/1
Jacob Robson .294 0 6 .324 .351 0/0 8/3
CT Bradford .290 0 11 .301 .368 1/1 17/8
Wes Rea .284 4 20 .489 .369 0/0 26/8

As you can see, the pop in this lineup comes from Renfroe and Rea as they have hit 13 of the 16 MSU home runs in conference play. MSU does not steal alot of bases and they have a 1.84 SO/BB ratio.

I personally think it's very likely that Mississippi State takes two of these games even playing in Oxford. A sweep isn't out of the question, but Bobby Wahl is just so good.

As always, thanks to those who contributed to this post.

Point Guard Jerron Martin Commits to Ole Miss

2013-05-08T17:13:50Z

Using his Vine account (which is like YouTube but just for Twitter and of even worse video quality) Jerron Martin, a 6'1" point guard out of Maryland, committed to play basketball for our Ole Miss Rebels as a part of the 2013 class. Ole Miss was his only major college offer, with his other offer of note reportedly from Loyola of Maryland. Looking at his highlight tape, he's flashy and skilled as a ball handler, but outside of that it's tough to gather anything of his basketball smarts or even his shooting ability. Still, his athleticism is impressive, something which is a bit of a recurring theme in Andy Kennedy's recruiting - especially of more under-the-radar type talents.

He will join center Dwight Coleby, wing Janari Joesaar, and forward Sebastian Saiz as a part of the 2013 class. He is likely to split time with Derek Millinghaus as a reserve guard off of the bench behind Jarvis Summers early on.

Welcome to Ole Miss, Jerron. Hotty Toddy.