FanPost

Ole Miss vs Dayton: Four Factors Preview

Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sport

Here's how the Rebels (9-3) match up with the Dayton Flyers (11-3) using the Four Factors. (National Rank in Parentheses)

OM O Dayton D Dayton O OM D
eFG% 50.7% (112) 48.7% (142) 54.1% (40) 46.4% (84)
TO% 15.9% (48) 20.4% (67) 17.6% (121) 20.4% (70)
OR% 31.6% (166) 27.1% (30) 36.6% (55) 35.3% (290)
FTR 44.3 (106) 37.4 (113) 43.7 (117) 39.9 (163)

Official Preview from OleMissSports.com is here.

The Rebels wrap up the non-conference slate with a game against a very tough Dayton Flyers team. Per kenpom's ratings, Dayton is the 44th best team in the country. The Rebels check in at #75. The Flyers have already beaten Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, and California this season and dropped a nailbiter to #9-ranked Baylor.

Unfortunately, one of Dayton's greatest strengths - rebounding - has become the achilles heel for the the Rebels.

Looking at the chart above, it's easy to see why. They don't do anything poorly. They rank in the top 142 of all Four Factors on both side of the ball. Our defensive rebounding has been atrocious over the last several outings, with opponents routinely posting OR%s of 40%+. Dayton ranks 55th in the country so far this season, grabbing 36.6% of their misses.

This is very close to a must-win game for the Rebels. They dropped a heartbreaker to Mercer the last time out at home, but bounced back for a hard fought win at WKU. While this isn't the best matchup for them - particularly on the glass - i have a feeling that the Rebs find a way to get this win tomorrow night.

Sebastian Saiz looked very good in his first start the other night and I would expect he'd get the start again tomorrow night. As he gets more comfortable out there, it really brings another dimension to the offense as he is a capable jump-shooter from about 15 feet and in. The Rebels have been terrible inefficient inside the arc this year - just 46.8% on 2-Pointers. While Marshall Henderson has been very efficient from deep - 39.2% on 150 3PAs - he is shooting a frigid 25% - 9/36 - on 2s.

(Sure to be terribly, terribly wrong) Predictions:

Ole Miss 72, Dayton 70

(As always, the national rankings pulled from kenpom.com, quite possibly the coolest site on the whole wide intertubes... Red Cup Rebellion excluded of course)

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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