FanPost

Advanced Stats : Vandy Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Exciting Finish

Frederick Breedon

What a night. I left the game in awe. First, I'm not sure if I've ever seen a game that exciting - 7OTs vs Arkansas comes to mind, but I was just exhausted by the end of that - I kinda wanted it to end no matter who won. Last Thursday, I went from jubilation to the pits of despair back to euphoria; all within 7 minutes or so.

I've gotten involved in something new this year. I'm participating in Bill Connelly's College Football Charting Project over at Football Study Hall. It should make a crap ton of data available for dissection, so if there's something you're interested in seeing a trend on, please let me know, I will probably have the data for that.

On to the game from Thursday night.

Success Rate - this is a measure of staying on schedule, something that Freeze preaches quite a bit. A play is considered successful if it gets 50% of the yardage needed for a 1st down on 1st downs, 70% on 2nd and 100% on 3rd and 4th downs. You can really track the highs and lows using this stat.

Quarter

Ole Miss

Vanderbilt

1

35.3%

29.4%

2

40.0%

80.0%

3

58.6%

50.0%

4

47.4%

36.4%

Total

47.1%

47.1%

I left the game thinking that our offense was on track all night with the exception of a lull in the 2nd quarter. That wasn't really the case. The success rate shows that we really didn't do much in the 1st quarter, less in fact than the 2nd quarter. The difference is that defense was shutting down Vanderbilt early on and they got hot in the 2nd quarter. We made adjustments and won the 3rd quarter and I think Vanderbilt's depth starts to show up in the 4th quarter.

One note, big plays can hurt this measure in a way. For instance, Jeff Scott's 75 yard TD run counts as 1 of 1 in the success category, the same as it would have if Engram didn't get the block and Scott was knocked out of bounds for a 7 yard gain. Then, theoretically, if we dinked and dunked down the field and eventually scored, that drive would have looked something like 9 of 13 rather than 1 for 1.

Targets - New #1?

I believe that Vandy came into the game with two things on their mind - make Bo Wallace beat them with the bum shoulder (more on that later) and to shut down Moncrief. It sounds like a great plan - Moncrief did some damage against them last year (14 targets, 8 catches, 74 yards), but a lot of the passing game with through Sanders and Logan (11 & 5 targets for 160 & 96 yards). With Sanders and Neat out, Vandy probably thought they could live with the damage Ja-Mes Logan would do. Obviously, they don't subscribe to the Spirit to listen to Yancy tell them how good Laquon Treadwell is.

Treadwell had 14 targets and hauled in 9 balls for 82 yards. Moncrief still pitched in 5 catches for 56 yards on 11 targets - we will probably see that number go up as teams have to pay more attention to Treadwell.

Remember how our offense was sputtering in the first half? Treadwell had 2 targets through the first half. In the 3rd quarter, we adjusted and threw him the ball 8 times which was good for 71 yards. Vandy must have adjusted in the 4th quarter as we only went to him 3 times for no catches. It should be fun to watch the cat and mouse game Freeze will play with teams as they switch their focus between Moncrief and Treadwell this year.

Total targets from Vandy - Nice first game Evan Engram

Targets

Catches

Yards

Percent of Targets

Catch Rate

Yards Per Target

Yards Per Catch

Laquon Treadwell

14

9

82

29.8%

64.3%

5.9

9.1

Donte Moncrief

11

5

56

23.4%

45.5%

5.1

11.2

Evan Engram

7

5

61

14.9%

71.4%

8.7

12.2

Ja-Mes Logan

7

5

39

14.9%

71.4%

5.6

7.8

Jeff Scott

4

4

25

8.5%

100.0%

6.3

6.3

Jordan Holder

4

3

20

8.5%

75.0%

5.0

6.7

Total

47

31

283

100.0%

66.0%

6.0

9.1

Bo Wallace

I thought Bo looked really good coming off the shoulder surgery. I'm not ready to crown him as a game manager yet as he threw a couple of balls that could have been picked, but I don't think it's fair to call him a gun slinger after Thursday's game either.

One thing he did really well was handle the blitz. There was no significant drop off in his stats facing extra rushers verses 4 man pressure. In fact, 3 of the 4 sacks came for 4 man pressure where our OL simply didn't hold up.

Against Man Blitz

Sack

All

9

6

64

1

Standard

4

3

27

Passing

5

3

37

1






No Blitz

All

37

25

219

3

Standard

29

21

179

Passing

8

4

40

3

Zone Read

It looks like Vandy's game plan was to force Wallace to keep the ball and stick his shoulder into the teeth of their D. Wallace was not nervous about keeping it and took yards when it was available. This also opened up lanes for Scott later in the game as Vandy had to adjust to stop Wallace


Option - zone read

Yards

YPC

Non-Option Runs

Yards

YPC

Bo Wallace

13

70

5.4

Jeff Scott

10

129

12.9

2

9

4.5

Jaylen Walton

2

6

3.0

Barry Brunetti

1

3

3.0

1

1

1.0

Kailo Moore

1

0

0.0

Robert Nkemdiche

1

11

11.0

Grand Total

26

208

8.0

4

20

5.0

OL Yards

This stat tries to split the credit of a running game between the RB and the OL. There is a big difference between 10 carries of 5 yards a piece and 9 carries that get stuffed, then the RB rips a big 50 yard run. It give the OL credit for anything up to 4 yards, then the RB and OL split yards 5-10, then the RB is given all the credit for yards after 10 (Highlight yards). The thinking is that after 10 yards, the RB has had to make at least one unblocked man miss. It's not perfect because sometimes there is crappy blocking, but a great RB can get it back to the line of scrimmage, but it's the best we've got.

OL Yards

112

Carries

32

OLYPC

3.5

Highlight Yards


Carries

HL Yards

HLYPC

Bo Wallace

14

23.5

1.7

Jeff Scott

12

89.5

7.5

Barry Brunetti

2

0

0.0

Jaylen Walton

2

0

0.0

Kailo Moore

1

0

0.0

Robert Nkemdiche

1

4

4.0

75 yard runs make this look really good. However, I left the game thinking that Scott had a bad night, but ripped a big run at the end. That's not really the case at all. Take out the 75 yarder and he still had 11 carries for 63 yards (5.7 YPC). As I said earlier, I think it's more of a case of the Vandy D keying on our RBs and making Wallace beat them with his legs. Thankfully for me, the Nashville hotel room I stayed in, and my personal finances, Wallace did enough and picked the exact right time to give the ball to Scott.

As I said, I have a crap ton of data - give me some ideas and I will try to incorporate them into this analysis.

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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