FanPost

Advanced Stats: Ole Miss beats Texas by 21

Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

We just went from 2-10 and losing to La Tech to being competitive, but still losing to Texas 66-31 to beating Texas at Darrell Royal Stadium. That takes some getting used to. Granted, this was not your father's Texas team. It's not even your young, cool uncle's Texas team, but it is a huge win for Hugh Freeze and the program. How did it happen? Much of this will confirm what you saw watching the game live, but it's fun nonetheless to look at.

Success Rate & Strategy

Quarter

Ole Miss

Texas

1

81.3%

47.1%

2

45.5%

60.9%

3

69.6%

33.3%

4

50.0%

30.8%

Total

64.5%

46.8%

We were really blowing their doors off in the first quarter and once again had a second quarter swoon. I really wonder what's causing us to lose focus, but hopefully it gets addressed. Then we reestablish our dominance in the second half and shut down their offense to open up the game.

I think one difference was that we started playing tighter coverage in the second half and didn't let McCoy dink-and-dunk it down the field. Overall, 11 of McCoy's 38 passes (counting the 2 pass interference calls) were at or behind the line of scrimmage. Another 12 only went 1-5 yards down the field. In total 61% of his passes traveled 5 or fewer yards. However, Texas had much more success with this strategy in the first half. In the first half, 11 of 15 passes (73%) traveled 5 yards or less. On those 11 passes, McCoy was 10 of 11 for 82 yards (7.5 yards per pass). In the second half, I believe the Ole Miss defense took this away and forced McCoy's arm to beat us down the field and exposed his lack of arm strength. Only 12 of 23 passes (52%) traveled 5 yards or less. Texas fan may take issue with me using the word expose there because I heard that mentioned quite a bit before the game. I wonder why we didn't come into the game with that strategy. In the second half he still completed a good number of the short passes but our defenders were there to make the tackle; he was 9 of 12 for 34 yards (2.8 yards per pass) on short passes in the second half.

The other thing I noticed about Texas was their tendency to run the ball in passing situations. Texas' inability to stop our inverted veer play was certainly the difference in the game, but Texas missed a chance to take a knockout punch when they had us reeling in the second quarter. Mack Brown seemed to settle for FGs several times by running the ball up the middle in passing situations. Overall, Texas ran the ball 10 out of 27 passing downs (2nd & 7+ and 3rd or 4th & 4+). However, in the first half, when he had a chance to open up a margin that Ole Miss may not have been able to climb out of; Texas ran the ball on 6 of 11 passing situations. It was like Mack Brown didn't watch the BYU game and thought he brought in Nick Saban as his new DC. That was mind boggling.

There's not a ton to talk about in terms of Ole Miss' offensive strategy. We basically ran the same play over and over again. We ran some form of read-option on 29 of our 75 offensive snaps. There may be a few more, I counted the pass plays where it was clear that Wallace pulled up to throw the ball out of the run play, but there certainly could have been more where he made a pre-snap read to go with the pass and made a half-hearted PA fake.

Texas really never had an answer for our inverted veer play that put Scott on the outside with Wallace having the option to pull it and run inside of the DE. In fact, Texas very rarely even made Wallace pull the ball and run inside. On 13 inverted veer plays, Bo Wallace only kept it 3 times and had made the hand off to Scott the first 7 times before Texas finally made him keep it. We averaged 9.2 yards per carry when running that play.

Targets

Player

Targets

Catches

Yards

YAC

Donte Moncrief

8

4

43

7

Laquon Treadwell

7

5

45

37

Evan Engram

4

4

44

21

Jordan Holder

3

3

39

11

Jeff Scott

1

1

6

0

I'Tavius Mathers

1

Ja-Mes Logan

1

Targets went as expected with Moncrief and Treadwell leading the way. Engram was a weapon and it looks like Holder has moved ahead of Logan.

Standard Downs

Targets

Catches

Yards

Donte Moncrief

4

3

41

Laquon Treadwell

3

3

25

Evan Engram

1

1

7

I'Tavius Mathers

1

Moncrief and Treadwell did most of their damage on standard downs.

Passing Downs

Targets

Catches

Yards

Laquon Treadwell

4

2

20

Donte Moncrief

4

1

2

Evan Engram

3

3

37

Jordan Holder

3

3

39

Jeff Scott

1

1

6

Ja-Mes Logan

1

Going into the game, I felt like Texas had good corners that would give us trouble. In obvious passing situations, they did a good job of keeping Moncrief and Treadwell in check. Engram and Holder really stepped up and Wallace did a good job of finding these guys to keep the chains moving a couple of times.

Bo Wallace

How much would you have lost if there was a bet available on Bo Wallace being interception free through 3 games? The dude was done a really good job on cutting down on turnovers. He had some bad throws in the first two games that maybe should have been picked and he had the weird fumble against Texas, but he's been about as close to mistake free as anyone who handles the ball as much as he does could be.

All

Completions

Attempts

Yards

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack %

Eff

Wallace

17

25

177

2

0

0

0.0%

153.87

Very effective night throwing the ball

Standard

Completions

Attempts

Yards

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack %

Eff

Wallace

7

9

73

1

0

0

0.0%

182.58

Passing

Completions

Attempts

Yards

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack %

Eff

Wallace

10

16

104

1

0

0

0.0%

137.73

He took zero sacks - a lot of the credit goes to the OL there; Wallace didn't have much pressure in his face. He got the ball in our playmakers hands, even on obvious passing situations. Even though Texas did a good job of shutting down his #1 and #2 options on passing downs, he still managed to move the chains.

On the option, he kept it 9 times for 52 yards, he gave it to the RB 19 times for 128 yards, and he pulled up to pass twice on plays that looks like a read option to me for 25 yards. That number could be higher, but Wallace didn't carry out the fake as much because he knew he was going through the air - it's tough to tell exactly what the play call is sometimes.

OL

The OL did a great job in this game. As I said earlier, they allowed zero sacks and Wallace faced very little pressure all night - he only had to throw two balls away due to pressure. He was tipped at the line a few times, which hopefully can be corrected, but overall, a great night for the OL. They opened holes for 3.8 OLYPC. An OL yard and anything an RB gets up to 4 yards. The thinking is that the OL is 100% responsible for that. After that, the OL and the RB split yards 5-10. After that, the thought is that it's up to the RB to create any additional yardage by making someone miss on their own and creating highlight yards.

Player

Carries

Highlight Yards

Jeff Scott

19

73.5

Bo Wallace

12

20.5

Jaylen Walton

8

8.5

I'Tavius Mathers

4

2.5

Barry Brunetti

1

0

Jeff Scott is having an incredible year so far. The TD at Vandy and he was absolutely killing Texas on the edge Saturday. A lot of credit goes to Wallace for running the read so well, the OL, and certainly the WRs for blocking down field. Millan and Tess pointed out a couple of times that Scott was 10 yards down field before he met any potential tacklers on several occasions.

Great win and a huge program builder even though most of the nation probably didn't see any of it. We've got a week off to rest and heal up a few guys, then we go into the ultimate program building situation with Alabama. It certainly won't be easy, but I think we have a puncher's chance there. A&M put up some yardage on Alabama and Alabama had to outscore them. I think our defense is a little ahead of A&M's right now.

Sorry I missed the SEMO game. My wife actually bought the PPV while I was at the game, but she did it at my in-laws. I'm not sure I could stomach "watching the game film" at my in laws.

Let me know what you think and give me some questions.

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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