FanPost

Breaking Down Each SEC Team's 2013 Over/Under Win Total (The Bottom 8)

Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

CORRECTION: Bowl games do not count, so this has been slightly edited from the original

Last week, Vegas came out with their 2013 over/under win totals for every BCS team. Some may seem questionable on their face, but Vegas makes a ton of money so it's generally hard to disagree with them often. Barring injuries and other extraneous debacles, most of these numbers make a good deal of sense. I thought it would be fun to look at each SEC team to see why (or why not) these numbers from Vegas make sense, and then see what everyone else thinks. Here's the bottom 8:

Kentucky (3.5) -- My Pick: OVER

Aug. 31: vs. Western Kentucky (Nashville)
Sept. 7: MIAMI (OHIO)
Sept. 14: LOUISVILLE
Sept. 28: FLORIDA
Oct. 5: at South Carolina
Oct. 12: ALABAMA
Oct. 26: at Mississippi State
Nov. 2: ALABAMA STATE
Nov. 9: MISSOURI
Nov. 16: at Vanderbilt
Nov. 23: at Georgia
Nov. 30: Tennessee

The rationale here is pretty obvious: Kentucky will win their 3 non-Louisville OOC games. But here's why this is a difficult pick, and why this is the perfect over/under win total (if you're Vegas):

  • Who knows what the hell WKU is going to look like with Petrino? I think it's safe to say that no one knows enough about WKU to say what kind of talent they have, especially talent that has spent 8 months with a good football coach
  • Two SEC games are possible wins, starting with Mizzou at home. I really don't expect to see much improvement from Mizzou, and I think Gary Pinkle will be on the way out after this year. Tennessee at home also seems winnable, but as a Univ. of Cincinnati graduate student, I feel safe in saying Butch Jones will have the big orange competing on day 1.
  • There are a ton of roster issues with this team, but I think Mark Stoops will have them playing hard.

Mississippi State (5.5) -- My Pick: OVER

Aug. 31: Oklahoma State (Houston)
Sept. 7: ALCORN STATE
Sept. 14 at Auburn
Sept. 21 TROY
Oct. 5 LSU
Oct. 12 BOWLING GREEN
Oct. 26 KENTUCKY
Nov. 2 at South Carolina
Nov. 9 at Texas A&M
Nov. 16 ALABAMA
Nov. 23 at Arkansas (Little Rock)
Nov. 30 OLE MISS


Alcorn, Troy, Bowling Green, and Kentucky -- after that, things get a little sticky. But here's why I have them at over: predicting they win 2 of 4 in games against Oklahoma State, Auburn, Arkansas, and Ole Miss would not be a stretch considering what they return. However, this is the least confident pick of any team in the SEC. A recurring theme among each SEC West team is that Auburn and Arkansas are wildcards, and winning both of those games on the road will be difficult for TSBU.


Mizzou (5.5) -- My Pick: Under

Aug. 31: MURRAY STATE
Sept. 7: TOLEDO
Sept. 21: at Indiana
Sept. 28: vs. Arkansas State
Oct. 5: at VANDERBILT
Oct. 12: at Georgia
Oct. 19: FLORIDA
Oct. 26: SOUTH CAROLINA
Nov. 2: TENNESSEE
Nov. 9: at Kentucky
Nov. 23: at Ole Miss
Nov. 30: TEXAS A&M

I'm sure Mizzou will be riding high entering SEC play at 4-0 (If they can survive Indiana... that's kindof a joke). After that, they may not win a game. I wouldn't be surprised if they win 1 of 2 against Kentucky and Tennessee, but I don't think they win both or any other SEC game on the schedule.


Tennessee (5.5) -- My Pick: OVER

Aug. 31: AUSTIN PEAY
Sept. 7: WESTERN KENTUCKY
Sept. 14: at Oregon
Sept. 21: at Florida
Sept. 28: SOUTH ALABAMA
Oct. 5: GEORGIA
Oct. 19: SOUTH CAROLINA
Oct. 26: at Alabama
Nov. 2: at Missouri
Nov. 9: AUBURN
Nov. 23: VANDERBILT
Nov. 30: at Kentucky

Three OOC games are locks. Can UT get to 3 SEC wins? My prediction is that UT wins 3 out of 4 to end the season, get to 6-6 and into the postseason.

Auburn (6.5) -- My Pick: UNDER


Aug. 31: WASHINGTON STATE
Sep. 7: ARKANSAS STATE
Sep. 14: MISSISSIPPI STATE
Sep. 21: at LSU
Oct. 5: OLE MISS
Oct. 12: WESTERN CAROLINA
Oct. 19: at Texas A&M
Oct. 26: FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Nov. 2: at Arkansas
Nov. 9: at Tennessee
Nov. 16: GEORGIA
Nov. 30: ALABAMA

I think Auburn is a wildcard. Gus Malzahn may be a great coach, although I'm not super sold on him yet. It's easy to have ridiculous offensive numbers with a freak like Cam Newton. The other years at Auburn were good-not-great with pretty damn good offensive talent. The possible wins are Wash State, Ark State, Miss State, Western Car., FAU, Ark, Tenn, and Ole Miss. I basically needed to choose between Auburn and Arkansas to get to 6 wins, and I'm choosing Auburn.

And, yes, they have eight home games this season. Eight. EIGHT.

Arkansas (5.5) -- My Pick -- UNDER

Aug. 31: LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE
Sep. 07: SAMFORD
Sep. 14: SOUTHERN MISS
Sep. 21: at Rutgers
Sep. 28: TEXAS A&M
Oct.05: at Florida
Oct. 12: SOUTH CAROLINA
Oct. 19: at Alabama
Nov. 02: at Auburn
Nov. 09: at Ole Miss
Nov. 23: MISSISSIPPI STATE (Little Rock)
Nov. 29: at LSU

Arkansas's over/under came in at 5.5, though they were the only BCS team left off the original list from Vegas. This is about to be the new theme in Arkansas, as they are sure to be the most boring BCS team in 2013 (other than the occasional GIFs of Bielema's wife). Definitely under here. Winning all 4 OOC games may be difficult with that game at Rutgers, but I don't think they get 2 SEC wins anyway. I think they'll improve under Bielema, but I don't the defensive personnel is there yet to win under Bielema's presumed slow, miserable, and yawn-inspiring game methodology.

Vandy (7.5) -- My Pick: UNDER

Aug. 29: OLE MISS
Sep. 7: AUSTIN PEAY
Sep. 14: at South Carolina
Sep. 21: at UMass
Sep. 28: UAB
Oct. 5: MISSOURI
Oct. 19: GEORGIA
Oct. 26: at Texas A&M
Nov. 9: at Florida
Nov. 16: KENTUCKY
Nov. 23: at Tennessee
Nov. 30: WAKE FOREST

I like Vandy going in to the future, without a doubt. I think they get all 4 OOC games, and could get 3 of 4 from Ole Miss, Mizzou, Kentucky, Tennessee. However, Vandy has the propensity to never upset anyone, and beating all four of the teams mentioned before is a little much. I put Vandy at 6 wins, maybe 7.

Ole Miss (8) -- My Pick: PUSH

Aug. 31: at Vanderbilt
Sep. 7: SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
Sep. 14: at Texas
Sep. 28: at Alabama
Oct. 5: at Auburn
Oct. 12: TEXAS A&M
Oct. 19: LSU
Oct. 26: IDAHO
Nov. 9: ARKANSAS
Nov. 16: TROY
Nov. 23: MISSOURI
Nov. 30: at Mississippi State :(

Here's the rationale: 3 OOC games plus the 3 SEC wins from last year (Ark, Aub, MSU). Then, +1 for a win over Vandy or Texas, +1 for a win over A&M or LSU, and +1 for Mizzou replacing UGA on last year's schedule. That's 9 regular season wins. However, I think we'll lose 1 of the aforementioned games, ending the regular season with 8 wins, which would be a great season in my opinion.

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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