Ole Miss Rebels vs. Missouri Tigers (Part Deux): Four Factors Preview


Here's how the Rebels (18-4, 7-2) match up with the Missouri Tigers (16-6, 5-4) using the Four Factors. (Conference Rank in Parentheses)

Ole Miss O Mizzou D Mizzou O Ole Miss D
eFG% 46.7% (9) 51.6% (13) 50.4% (4) 48.4% (6)
TO% 15.4% (1) 20.1% (8) 20% (6) 19.4% (9)
OR% 34.4% (2) 27.3% (3) 32.8% (7) 30.5% (6)
FTR 43.9 (2) 32.9 (7) 41.6 (4) 32.7 (5)

You’d be hard pressed to find a more schizophrenic team in the SEC than Mizzou. The Tigers are 5-0 at home in conference games, outscoring opponents by 17 ppg. On the road, the Tigers are 0-4 with blowout losses in Oxford and Gainesville and close losses to SEC also-rans Texas A&M and LSU. Even with the return of F Laurence Bowers 3 games ago, the Tigers have struggled to live up to their preseason billing.

Which is not to say the Rebels haven’t had their ups and downs lately. Jarvis Summers has been uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball lately and forced up several bad shots. Murphy Holloway seems hellbent on missing 3+ layups every game. Injuries to Nick Williams and Aaron Jones have upset what was a very smooth rotation of players available to AK and staff.

This should be an entertaining game, certainly more competitive than the earlier tilt in Oxford. Both teams need this one badly for varying reasons. The four factors rankings point to an advantage for the Rebels in the majority of categories, particularly when it comes to Ole Miss protecting the ball on offense. Looking at the previous game’s four factors below, it’s easy to see why the Rebels won:

OM Mizzou
eFG% 43.8% 38.6%
TO% 17.9% 28.3%
OR% 30.6% 29.7%
FTR 35.7 10.5

Mizzou couldn’t shoot, hang on to the ball, or get to the FT line. It was their first game without Bowers, so they were trying to feel each other out. Bowers is back now.

The Rebels obviously match up very well with the Tigers. This game will likely be determined at the FT line, as the Tigers (24.5%) and Rebels (24.2%) rank 1st and 2nd in conference play for points scored from the charity stripe. Tigers are shooting 78.6% in conference, so keeping them off the line is imperative. Fatigue may also be a factor for the Tigers who are stuck with the dreaded Thursday/Saturday slate this week.

All that said, it’s hard to tell if the Rebels have snapped out of their recent funk. They coasted through the game Wednesday night against a terrible Mississippi State team after dropping both games last week, albeit to tough opponents. I would not be surprised in the least if we won this game – again because of the matchup advantages we have – but something tells me that the Tigers pull this one out.


Mizzou 79 Ole Miss 75

(As always, the conference rankings pulled from, quite possibly the coolest site on the whole wide intertubes... Red Cup Rebellion excluded of course)

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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