Here's how the Rebels (20-7, 9-5) match up with the Texas A&M Aggies (16-11, 6-8) using the Four Factors. (Conference Rank in Parentheses)
|Ole Miss O||aTm D||aTm O||Ole Miss D|
|eFG%||47.6% (6)||48.4% (9)||46.1% (11)||49% (10)|
|TO%||15.7% (1)||22.4% (5)||20.9% (9)||18.8% (9)|
|OR%||33.6% (5)||31.4% (7)||35.5% (2)||32.9% (10)|
|FTR||41.4 (4)||41.2 (12)||30.0 (13)||29.1 (3)|
The Rebels head into tonight’s rematch with Texas A&M with their Tourney chances on life support, but not dead yet. They lost a frustrating game earlier this month in College Station based on a defensive strategy that consisted of two basic tenants:
A) Do not guard Elston Turner, Jr.
B) On the rare occasion he didn’t hit the wide open jumper you give him, do not rebound the ball
Here’s how the 4 factors shaped up in the previous meeting.
The Rebels executed fairly well on offense, shooting a high% on 2-pointers and getting to the FT line with ease. The issue – of course – was the defensive end. It certainly didn't help that he last few minutes of the game were not exactly AK's shining moment when it comes to in-game management.
For tonight, there’s not a lot to break down. Guard Turner and rebound the ball and the Rebels will win. Pound the ball inside with Buckner (13 points, 15 rebounds last meeting) and execute the offense like last meeting and everything else will take care of itself. The Aggies are coming off a 4OT loss at home to Tennessee so they may be a bit out of sorts at the tip. A quick start this evening will go a long way to establishing the tempo of this game.
Saturday’s throttling of Auburn was certainly encouraging. Everything worked from top to bottom. I expect Henderson to come off the bench again and for the team to play with the same sort of swagger they had against AU. They never should’ve lost @aTm and this is their chance to prove it.
(Sure to be terribly, terribly wrong) Predictions:
Ole Miss 73 Texas A&M 66
Elston Turner, Jr. finishes with an eFG% in the 30%s
Nick Williams or Snoop White lead the Rebels in scoring
(As always, the conference rankings pulled from kenpom.com, quite possibly the coolest site on the whole wide intertubes... Red Cup Rebellion excluded of course)