FanPost

Ole Miss @ Western Kentucky: Four Factors Preview

Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports

Here's how the Rebels (8-3) match up with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) using the Four Factors. (National Rank in Parentheses)

OM O WKU D WKU O OM D
eFG% 50.5% (126) 49.3% (167) 46.1% (281) 46.1% (72)
TO% 16.0% (56) 21.0% (50) 22.5% (329) 20.0% (84)
OR% 32.3% (145) 29.3% (80) 35.9% (71) 35.5% (291)
FTR 44.6 (105) 43 (219) 41.3 (156) 39.4 (150)

Official Preview from OleMissSports.com is here.

The Rebels play their final game of 2013 this evening in Bowling Green Kentucky against WKU. After dropping a home game to Mercer the last time out, the Rebs can ill afford a 4th non-conference loss. WKU is not as good as Mercer, but with the way the Rebs have played the last few games, anything is possible.

The most glaring thing to correct is defensive rebounding. While the Rebs dominated the defensive glass against Oregon (22.2% OR% for the Ducks) the other losses have been a different story. Kansas State grabbed 39% of their misses and Mercer grabbed 42.9% of theirs. MTSU and Louisiana Monroe grabbed 51.2% and 45.5% of their misses respectively in Rebel wins.

Also, in the Rebels 3 losses, the TO% on offense has been 20.0% against KSU, 20.5% against Oregon, and 19.1% against Mercer. For a team that typically excels in protecting the ball - our season average of 16% is 56th best in the country - mistakes are costly, particularly when you can't rebound defensively.

As for the matchup with WKU, the factors favor the Rebels. While WKU has rebounded the ball well offensively this year, they've had plenty of chances to as they've shot the ball poorly. They also turn the ball over quite a bit. The Rebels have excelled guarding the initial shot this year and turning opponents over.

(Sure to be terribly, terribly wrong) Predictions:

Ole Miss 74, WKU 66

(As always, the national rankings pulled from kenpom.com, quite possibly the coolest site on the whole wide intertubes... Red Cup Rebellion excluded of course)

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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