Here's how the Rebels (7-2) match up with the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks (3-2) using the Four Factors. (National Rank in Parentheses)
|OM O||Monroe D||Monroe O||OM D|
|eFG%||50.6% (123)||45.7% (68)||49.3% (172)||46.2% (78)|
|TO%||15.6% (42)||19.9% (97)||21.9% (315)||19.7% (111)|
|OR%||32.1% (155)||29.3% (88)||27.1% (289)||33.5% (230)|
|FTR||44.8 (109)||44.2 (226)||42.9 (136)||41.9 (198)|
Official Preview from OleMissSports.com is here.
The Rebels return to action tonight against Louisiana Monroe. I’ve added some color to the preview charts for a little bit more ease of use. Any factor in which a team ranks inside the top 100 teams in the country, I’ve highlighted green. Any factor in which a team ranks outside the top 250, I’ve highlighted red.
At quick glance, it’s obvious that Monroe has fared much better on the defensive end of the court than on offense. But, those numbers are inflated by blowout victories over Samford and something called Thomas. I'm not sure if that's an actual school or just some guy named Thomas they found on the street and challenged to a pick up game. I don’t expect that the Rebels will struggle scoring much at all with the Warhawks tonight.
Defensively, this is a game in which the Rebels should excel. Monroe has struggled scoring against real competition, mustering just 63 points vs Kansas and 54 against LSU. They turn the ball over on nearly 22% of their possessions and more than half their turnovers (12.8% of possessions) are steals. That’s the 5th highest rate in the country out of 351 teams. The Warhawks are no threat from deep, shooting just 28.8% on 3s. They also get 13.2% of their 2-point FGAs blocked, while the Rebels are blocking an incredible 19.4% of opponent 2-point FGAs.
I’m sure Kennedy has been on Demarco Cox, Aaron Jones, and Sebastian Saiz about their lack of rebounding against MTSU on Saturday. I expect that they will be looking to dominate the glass against an undersized Warhawks team. The offense will likely start from the inside out as we try to take advantage of the our size differential down low.
(Sure to be terribly, terribly wrong) Predictions:
Ole Miss 83, Monroe 54
Rebels finish the game with 10+ blocks and 10+ steals
(As always, the national rankings pulled from kenpom.com, quite possibly the coolest site on the whole wide intertubes... Red Cup Rebellion excluded of course)