Statistical Preview: Ole Miss Rebels host Arkansas Razorbacks

Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Kickoff is at 11:21 AM Central on ESPN3

[ED: By now y'all know to thank Fit4LifeLLC for his work in getting these numbers together, right?]

Arkansas is waist deep in a serious rebuilding project right now, as evidenced by our Ole Miss Rebels entering the game as 17-point favorites. Our initial reaction is that such a line seems really high. We're not sure if this is our collective fear of a WAOM moment (the old kind, not neo-WAOM) or our simply having a hard time believing that Vegas thinks that we are that much better than any SEC team, regardless of the struggles Arkansas is having this year.

But, after taking a look at the statistics for both teams, it is a little easier to see how the spread is so wide. In several categories, Arkansas ranks at or near the bottom of the SEC through 5 conference games. Take, for example, one prominent disparity statistically between these two teams is their turnover margins, where Ole Miss is +3 while Arkansas is -12. Negative. Twelve.

One area that the Razorbacks have shown some ability this year is in running the football. If the Rebels come out flat, have a couple of turnovers, and allow Arkansas to control the line of scrimmage and clock on the backs of Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams, this game could be more of a fight than we bargained for.

Games such as this year's game against a struggling Arkansas team, just as much as games against the conference's elite teams, will tell me how much this program has moved forward. Historically, Ole Miss has struggled with games like this against SEC teams that, on paper, it should beat - most recently against Auburn on October 6th of this year. I'm not saying that Arkansas is Auburn or on that level, but Ole Miss can ill afford to look past any team, struggling or otherwise.

3 Keys to the game

  1. Start fast, using tempo
  2. Get the Hogs in a hole early and force them to throw and come from behind
  3. Limit turnovers and penalties

Arkansas Passing

Name Comp/Att Yards Int TDs Comp % Effeciency
Brandon Allen 81/180 1067 7 9 45 103.52
AJ Derby 19/36 178 1 1 52.8 97.92

Arkansas Rushing

Name Attempts Yards TDs Average/Game Long
Alex Collins 159 884 4 98.8 55
Jonathan Williams 115 716 4 79.6 75
Keon Hatcher 9 124 0 17.7 50
Kiero Small 30 118 1 13.1 19

Arkansas Receiving

Name Receptions Yards TDs Average/Game Long
Javontee Herndon 24 377 4 41.9 49
Hunter Henry 18 328 1 36.4 52
Keon Hatcher 15 175 2 25 27
Kiero Small 14 96 1 10.7 16

Arkansas Offense Arkansas Defense
Scoring 180 280
First Downs 165 190
Rushing Yardage 1901 1611
Passing Yardage 1297 1861
Total Offense 3198 3472
Total Plays 586 602
Average Per Play 5.5 5.8

OM Offense OM Defense
Scoring 260 205
First Downs 195 163
Rushing Yardage 1521 1321
Passing Yardage 2177 1714
Total Offense 3698 3035
Total Plays 615 562
Average Per Play 6 5.4

OM Arkansas
Turnovers 11 17
Punting 30 for 45.3 yd avg 41 for 43.8 yd avg
Time of Possession 28:56:00 30:51:00
3rd Conversion % 50/116 (43%) 51/120 (42%)
4th Conversion % 12/21 (57%) 5/11 (45%)
Sacks For 11 for 68 yds 22 for 152 yds
FG 10 for 13 9 for 11
Red Zone Scoring 22/27 (81%) 21/28 (75%)
Penalties 45 for 356 yds 38 for 374 yds

Ole Miss Defensive Leaders

Name Tackles (Total) TFL Turnover Plays Sacks PBU's
Serdarius Bryant 57 6 1 1 1
Cody Prewitt 48 3 6 0 5
Trae Elston 42 1.5 1 0 5
Tony Connor 40 2 1 1 4
Mike Hilton 29 5 0 0 0
Mike Marry 29 2 2 0 1

Isaac Gross leads the team in sacks with 2.5

Arkansas Defensive Leaders

Name Tackles (Total) TFL Turnover Plays Sacks PBU's
Braylon Mitchell 63 1 0 0 3
Alan Turner 62 0 0 0 3
Jarrett Lake 58 1 1 0.5 2
Eric Bennett 53 0.5 0 0 3
Tevin Mitchel 46 3 1 0 5
Robert Thomas 31 6 0 3.5 0
Chris Smith 28 9 1 7 1

SEC Stats

Team Stats OM (SEC Rank) OM (Entire Season) ARK (SEC Rank) ARK (Entire Season)
Total Yards 429 yds (8th) 462.3 321.6 (11th) 355.3
Passing Yards 292 yds (2nd) 272.1 138.2 (13th) 144.1
Rushing Yards 137 yds (11th) 190.1 183.4 (6th) 211.2
Scoring Offense 25.2 (6th) 32.5 13.4 (14th) 20
Points Against 31 (7th) 25.6 42.8 (14th) 31.1
Rushing Defense 203.4 yds (10th) 165.1 247.8 (14th) 179
Passing Defense 238.6 yds (6th) 214.3 214.8 (5th) 206.8
Total Defense 442 yds (8th) 379.4 462.6 (11th) 385.8
Turnover Margin +3 (6th) -12 (14th)
Pass Defense Efficiency 129.4 (5th) 182.6 (14th)
First Downs 22.8/game (6th) 17.6/game (12th)
3rd Down Conversions 40.5 (9th) 42.4 (7th)
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