Here's how the Rebels (3-0) match up with the North Carolina A&T Aggies (1-3) using the Four Factors. (National Rank in Parentheses)
|OM O||NCA&T D||NCA&T O||OM D|
|eFG%||47.9% (205)||50% (195)||50% (153)||44.4% (56)|
|TO%||16.8% (99)||18.1% (182)||20.6% (273)||19% (139)|
|OR%||36.8% (68)||36.4% (269)||29.2% (240)||29.1% (113)|
|FTR||52.3 (55)||81.2 (348)||49.4 (76)||34 (71)|
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The Rebels return to the hardwood today in a rare midweek matinee. The NCA&T Aggies made the NCAA Tournament last year and could provide a decent test for the Rebels today. The Aggies are on a 3-game losing streak, but lost by only 7 @Georgia Tech on Sunday.
At first glance here, the thing that jumps out immediately is the Aggies' 81.2 Defensive FTR. There are 351 D1 teams, and per KenPom's rankings, only 3 teams have been worse at keeping opponents off the FT Line. This plays right into the Rebels' hands as they've been very adept at getting to the charity stripe. Converting has been a different story, but the Rebels did shoot 78.9% against MVSU last outing.
The Aggies haven't rebounded very well either this year and have turned the ball over on 20.6% of their possessions. That being said, they do have two players who can really light it up. 6-3 senior guard Richaud Pack is averaging perhaps the most efficient 19.3 ppg in the country, sporting a ridiculous 74.3 eFG%, which is good for 19th in the country. Lamont Middleton is another 6-3 senior guard filling it up, pouring in 19 ppg (48.1% eFG%). The Rebel backcourt of Derrick Millinghaus, Jarvis Summers, Martavious Newby, and Marshall Henderson will have their hands full defensive this afternoon.
There's a major drop off for the Aggies after their dynamic duo though. The length of the Rebels frontcourt should make it difficult to score in the paint or rebound the ball effectively. Anthony Perez and Sebastian Saiz are both tough matchups for the Aggies with their quickness at their positions and should play well today.
(Sure to be terribly, terribly wrong) Predictions:
Rebels 82, Aggies 69
The Rebels get to the FT line 38 times, force 17 turnovers
Anthony Perez continues to emerge, finishes with 13 points, 8 rebounds
Tasked with slowing down one of the two guards for NCA&T, Newby logs a career high in minutes, finishes with 6 rebounds and 4 steals
(As always, the national rankings pulled from kenpom.com, quite possibly the coolest site on the whole wide intertubes... Red Cup Rebellion excluded of course)