Here's how the Rebels (6-1) match up with the East Tennessee State Buccaneers (2-5) using the Four Factors. (National Rank in Parentheses)
|Ole Miss O||ETSU D||ETSU O||Ole Miss D|
|eFG%||50.2% (100)||52.1% (331)||41% (280)||39.2% (6)|
|TO%||16.4% (22)||20.1% (260)||22.9% (210)||25.9% (14)|
|OR%||38.7% (40)||33.5% (193)||31.3% (217)||30.5% (125)|
|FTR||41.9 (67)||22.8 (8)||21.3 (344)||36.4 (173)|
There’s not really a lot to breakdown here. ETSU is nowhere near the caliber of MTSU or Rutgers or even Coastal Carolina or UALR. They struggle to shoot the ball, the Rebels have done a very good job on defense this year. ETSU turns the ball over a lot, the Rebels have been very adept at forcing turnovers. ETSU has struggle rebounding on both ends of the floor, the Rebels have been a force grabbing offensive rebounds all season and have rectified – for the most part – the defensive rebound struggles from early in the season. ETSU has done an incredible job keeping opponents off the FT line this year, but honestly, in a game as mismatched everywhere else as this one is, that won’t be any sort of factor tonight.
One matchup that may be worth watching is how the Buc’s standout freshman Lester Wilson (18.7 ppg, 6.9rpg, 41.3% 3P%) does against the Rebels tonight. He scored 13 points against UNC last time out, but needed 19 shots to get there. It also took him 12 shots to score 12 points against UGA earlier in the season, so he has struggled to score efficiently against major conference competition. I’m sure that Nick Williams, Martavious Newby, and company have been challenged to contain him tonight.
This is the sort of game the Rebels needed after a disheartening loss last weekend to MTSU. This one won’t be close. ETSU shoots 37.6% on 2-pointers, which is staggeringly bad. They shoot 61.1% on FTs, which is 3%+ worse than Ole Miss. Defensively, they’ll stick to a zone for the majority of the game, which should translate into some good looks from the outside for a struggling Marshall Henderson. It will also be one last audition for some of the role players to strut their stuff and earn some addition minutes as the team heads to Hawaii.
As an aside, no one who attended the OM/Rutgers game a couple of weeks ago and saw Mike Rice’s antics can be surprised by this. The guy is a clown.
As another aside, Ken Pomeroy has taken note of Marshall Henderson’s lack of conscience this season and is considering a dedicated spot on his web page for him.
Ole Miss 85 ETSU 46
Marshall Henderson attempts less than 10 3s
(As always, the national rankings pulled from kenpom.com, quite possibly the coolest site on the whole wide intertubes... Red Cup Rebellion excluded of course)