[ED: Methodology and ideas behind this? Click here.]
In this matchup of a pair of middling SEC teams on the verge of bowl eligibility, we will see a classic matchup of an offensively oriented team facing a defensively oriented team. The numbers look something like this:
|CATEGORY||Raw Vandy||Raw OM||"Betterness" Ratio||Advantage:|
|Scoring O||25.4||29.9||1.18||Ole Miss|
|Total O||385.1||408.2||1.06||Ole Miss|
|Rush O||172.9||177.9||1.03||Ole Miss|
|Rush D||164.3||148.1||1.11||Ole Miss|
|Pass O||212.2||230.3||1.09||Ole Miss|
|Pass E||135.5||139.6||1.03||Ole Miss|
|3rd Down||33.8||45.7||1.35||Ole Miss|
|Opp 3rd Down||30.8||42.3||0.73||Vandy|
|Red Zone O||71.9||93.3||1.30||Ole Miss|
|Red Zone D||77.8||75.8||1.03||Ole Miss|
Graphically, that looks something like this:
Also of note, Ole Miss' turnover margin is at 0, whereas Vanderbilt's is at -4.
Looking at this, the only conclusion I can reach is that something has got to give this Saturday. Both of our teams' advantages play against each other. We have a better scoring offense, they have a better scoring defense. We have a beter total offense, they have a better total defense. We have the better pass offense, they have the better pass defense. We have more sacks, they give up fewer sacks. We're better at converting third downs, they're better at stopping third down conversions.
Seeing this and considering what these programs have on the line, I think this should be a close one.