FanPost

Ole Miss vs Rutgers: Four Factors

Here's how the Rebels match up with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-1) using the Four Factors. (National Rank in Parentheses)

Ole Miss O Rutgers D Rutgers O Ole Miss D
eFG% 50.9% (91) 46.7% (133) 51.4% (77) 36.2% (2)
TO% 15.7% (16) 16% (319) 20.8% (175) 28.3% (9)
OR% 41.6% (19) 30.5% (129) 39.8% (35) 32.9% (184)
FTR 40.1 (113) 34.9 (149) 41.7 (89) 34.5 (142)

Just glancing at the chart above, it doesn't take long to figure out that Saturday's game against Rutgers will be – by far – the stiffest challenge the Rebels have faced this year. While not an upper-echelon Big East team, Rutgers certainly has their share of athletes that make this game a dangerous one. The game tips at 1:00PM Saturday afternoon and should be the biggest crowd of the season.

After an opening season loss to St. Peters, the Scarlet Knights are currently riding a 4-game win streak where they've averaged 76.5 ppg. They’re led by the ridiculously efficient backcourt duo of Eli Carter and Myles Mack.

PPG

eFG%

FT%

Carter

18.0

55.7%

95.7%

Mack

14.8

68.5%

91.7%

They also have good balance with five other players averaging between 6.0 and 7.4 ppg.

So far this season, only Texas has a better eFG% defense than the Rebels, but Rutgers will test that with their guards. They’re not a good three point shooting team (31.2%) and don’t shoot many, with only 64 attempts all year. Marshall Henderson has 56 this season alone.

The Rebels should win the turnover battle in this one. Rutgers struggles to force turnovers on defense, while the Rebels have been very stingy with the ball this year. And for Carter’s and Mack’s shooting/scoring prowess, they've been careless with the ball, combining for 23 turnovers between them. As a team, Rutgers has a 66:69 A:TO margin. While that's only about 14 turnovers a game, Rutgers typically plays a more methodical pace than the Rebels, so turnovers are more costly.

Speaking of pace of play, the Rebels should be able to make Rutgers uncomfortable with its pace. Using raw data, the Rebels average 10.1 more possessions per game than the Scarlet Knights. If the Rebels can get out and run, I’m not sure RU will be able to keep up for any length of time.

There are two things the Rebels need to guard against this game. First, they've got to rebound the ball well defensively. That was a real weak spot early in the season, and while it’s still not great – 184th in the country – it is better. Rutgers hits the offensive glass well, grabbing nearly 40% of its own missed shots. Neutralizing that part of the Scarlet Knights’ game will be a tough task.

Secondly, Jarvis Summers has to stay out of foul trouble, particularly with Derek Millinghaus still out. While Snoop White looked more comfortable running the point last game, we still can’t afford to go long stretches with Summers on the bench.

Predictions:

Ole Miss 84 Rutgers 70

Marshall Henderson breaks out of his current funk and hits for 22 points and 6 3s. Makes Rutgers fans back home turn off the TV and get back to GTL.

Murphy Holloway continues to play like a man on a mission with another double double

Martavius Newby sees 20+ minutes for a second straight game as he gets tasked with slowing down Mack

(National ranks and other advanced stats can be found at kenpom.com, which is possibly the coolest site on the world wide interwebs... other than Red Cup Rebellion, obviously)

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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