FanPost

Advanced Stats: Vandy

That’s sickening. That should have been our bowl clinching win. As it was, it was a back breaking loss. I have never heard the Grove as quiet as it was after walking out of the stadium. No one wanted to talk. Everyone just wanted to get this shit picked up and get home.

I’m normally not one to criticize a coach too much – especially when I’m talking about stats. I don’t like doing it too much because people often times question calls that coaches make with the benefit of knowing the outcome of the call – that’s unfair. It’s not fair to say going for it on 4th down is a bad call after it doesn’t work (I haven’t heard anyone criticize Freeze’s decision to go for it on 4th early in the game). It’s not fair to criticize going for it/punting/kicking a long field goal because you don’t know what the outcome of the plays until they happen and you never know what would have happened if another strategy was employed. Good coaches have a knack for getting it right, or having a team good enough to cover up their mistakes (I’m looking at you Les Miles). But, I cannot write anything about the game Saturday without taking umbrage with Freeze’s handling of the game. Me and everyone in the stadium knew not only that we were going to run the ball on first down, but where we were running the ball. I feel ok about criticizing a guy when you go back to the same call with overwhelming evidence that it’s not going to work. The stats and much of the game flow will come out being very similar to the Arkansas game. We were lucky that we had enough time to respond at Arkansas. It caught up with us against Vandy and I think the loss falls directly on Freeze’s shoulders.

SUCCESS RATE

Vandy

Ole Miss

1Q

47.4%

35.7%

2Q

23.1%

46.9%

3Q

57.9%

31.6%

4Q

36.8%

45.8%

Total

42.9%

41.6%

This is a very telling stat from the game. We got the turnover in the first quarter so we were able to hold a lead despite Vandy outperforming us. We should have built a bigger lead in the 2nd quarter when we really controlled the game, but instead we settled for 3 FGs (22, 28, and 41 yards) and gave them a gift FG at the end of the half due to our inability to run the clock out and a stupid offsides by Whigham. Then we scored to open up the 3Q with a nice TD drive, but shut were beaten soundly after that and gave up 14 points. Then we moved the ball fairly well and held Vandy, but we settled for a FG which kept Vandy alive and let them win with a final drive.

PLAY CALLING

Run Percentage

Standard

Passing

Vandy

53.5%

29.6%

Ole Miss

57.1%

20.0%

We were more likely to run the ball on standard downs and less likely to pass it on standard downs than Vandy was, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Overall, Jeff Scott had 14 carries on 1st downs – he got 17 yards.

He had 7 carries on 2nd downs for 24 yards. A 3.4 yard average is not setting the world on fire, but we can do something with it.

After our TD in the 3rd quarter, we had 17 first down plays. We ran the ball 7 times for 9 yards. We passed it 8 times and were 6 of 8 passing for 100 yards. I really didn’t realize that we had that much balance on the play calling; it felt like we ran it every time. I guess that’s why it’s beneficial to do this exercise.

When we did thrown on first and called a run on second down, we had good luck. We only had 2 cases of that after our final TD – we picked up 18 yards. That doesn’t sound like much, but it accounts for 23% of our rushing total for the game.

One other point on the runs. It looked like the exact same play every time. If Jeff Scott was lined up to the left, we were running read option to the right and vice versa. We had that little option that didn’t work either, but it wasn’t called a ton. I think there may have been a few holes there to pick up 3 or 4 yards, but Scott is determined to bounce it outside and Vandy was playing him that way. That’s not really strategy, but it is coaching.

TARGETS

Oh, I see you there Donte Moncrief.

Name

Targets

Catches

Yards

Moncrief

14

8

74

Logan

11

8

160

Neat

7

5

45

Sanders

5

5

96

Mosley

3

2

15

Scott

3

3

13

Greer

1

0

0

Mackey

1

0

0

Grand Total

45

31

403

Moncrief had a nice day after the heavy target load, but the real story is Ja-Mes Logan taking over the middle of the field and Vince Sanders having the game of his career on only 5 targets.

In passing situations, Sanders and Logan took a little bit of a back seat to Neat as the 2nd option behind Moncrief, everyone had a nice night on 2nd and 3rd and long.

Name

Targets

Catches

Yards

Neat

6

4

32

Moncrief

6

3

32

Sanders

4

4

91

Logan

4

3

58

Scott

2

2

12

Mosley

2

1

13

Mackey

1

0

0

It’s a good thing that we were effective on 2nd and 3rd and long because we saw a crap ton of it.

RUN GAME AND OL PLAY

We had 37 carries (sacks removed) for 77 freaking yards. That’s not going to win many games and it’s certainly not going to ice a game. We gave Vandy a score at the end of each half due to our inability to run the ball. Of the 37 carries, 9 were for a loss, 5 went for 0 yards, and 6 went for 1 yard. That’s 54% of our runs got 1 yard or less.

The OL had another crappy night opening holes for 1.7 OL yards per carry. The OL yards give the OL 100% of the credit for the first 4 yards, then splits between the OL and the RB for yards 5-10, and then the RB gets 100% of the credit. When the OL could open a hole, the RBs couldn’t get big gains. Our longest carry of the night was 11 yards and we only had two carries go over 8 yards. Part of the low total, as I said above, is due to Scott trying to bounce the ball outside and not taking the few yards the play is blocked for.

Last week, I called for Mathers to get a few carries early to save Scott for the end of the game. He did get 1 carry, but didn’t pick up the first on 3rd and 1. Our OL has very little depth and has been playing with the same 5 for most of the year. You have to wonder if the load is catching up with them and the 165 pound Jeff Scott.

QB PLAY

Even though the game ended up in the shitter, don’t let it take away from the performance Bo Wallace had. It was our first 400 yard performance since Eli was a senior and against a team that was only averaging giving up 152 passing yards per game. I think it was the 5th highest one game total in our history. We had 4 guys catch 5 balls for the 2nd time this year – before the Arkansas game; it had been since 1997 that happened. Ja-Mes Logan and Vince Sanders had career games and Moncrief had a Moncriefian performance. Just wish it would have ended in bowl eligibility.

All

Completions

Attempts

Yards

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack %

Eff

Wallace

31

49

403

1

0

3

5.8%

139.09

Standard

Completions

Attempts

Yards

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack %

Eff

Wallace

14

19

165

0

0

1

5.0%

146.63

Passing

Completions

Attempts

Yards

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack %

Eff

Wallace

17

30

238

1

0

2

6.3%

134.31

All in all, it sucked. I think the responsibility has to fall to Freeze. We had some grumblings after A&M, but may not should have been in that game because of the turnovers. We saw some holes in the Arkansas game, but had the great final drive to salvage the win. Then this game and we saw the read option run time after time again for little or no gain and there’s nothing to say except that I hope Freeze is learning from this. There is the possibility that he is working against his nature to try to hide our lack of depth – I’m willing to give him that benefit of the doubt for now. I mean, who thought we would be fighting for bowl eligibility against Vandy in the 10th game of the season? With that said, we also didn’t know that Auburn and Arkansas were going to turn into the dumpster fires they have turned into. I think most Rebel fans are conceding the LSU loss and turning our attention to getting bowl eligible against MSU. If we go that, this can be forgiven. If not, we will forever look back on 1st and goal from the 6 with under 4 minutes to go when we called two running plays and a dump off pass to Randall Mackey at the line of scrimmage and the point where we missed the chance of taking a year or two off the rebuilding process.

All that said, I’m still behind Freeze and think he’s the right guy for the job. After Leach (I was wrong), Freeze was my #1 choice. I think he’s done enough to earn our trust, but he blew the shit out of that game. I hope he learns and we don’t see that again.



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