FanPost

Advanced Stats: Auburn

It’s strange that I would complain after a 3 touchdown victory snapped a 16 game SEC losing streak, but during and after the game, all I could think about was the points we were leaving on the field. The stats show that we dominated the game, but it was a one-score game until 8 minutes to go in the 4th quarter and that score was “fluky”. The biggest play in the game may have been the offsides on Auburn that negated an eleven yard shank by Broadway that would have set Auburn up at the 33 yard line with a chance to tie. Instead, he got off a 49 yarder with no return that put them at the 21. Auburn would go 3 and out. It was as if Freeze knew that we were better than Auburn and didn’t want to risk anything that would give them a break or momentum. I couldn’t find the quote, but a buddy told me that Freeze said as much post game – that he got too conservative.

But who am I to complain about an SEC win after 0 for 2.5 years. Freeze has to be thinking about where he’s going to spend his hundo bonus. Think about this – the net effect of Freeze’s contract is basically laying $50 grand on the Rebels each week (that might make me go conservative too). Win and you take home $100, lose and it’s zero. At this point, he probably has more money than anybody reading this, but he hasn’t been a rich man for very long and I’m sure $100K means a lot.

Stats after the jump.

SUCCESS RATE

Auburn

Ole Miss

1Q

47.4%

66.7%

2Q

53.3%

55.6%

3Q

40.0%

50.0%

4Q

10.0%

47.6%

Total

40.7%

53.1%

We won this pretty big and really cruised in the 2nd half. This game continued the trend of being beaten in the 2nd Quarter though. For the year, we’re winning every quarter except the 2nd where we’ve been doubled up 41-82. That plays out in the success rate as well. A simple average of each game has us losing this by 57.6% to 50.6%. We’ve has crappy 2nd quarters against UCA, Texas, Alabama, and Auburn. It’s happened enough that it’s not an anomaly. I wonder what hole the team and coaches have that is causing this.

PLAY CALLING

At times, it felt like I was watching a Cutcliffe coached team. We had 30 first down plays, and we ran on 23 of those. Especially in the 2nd half when Auburn was doing a good job on our option, we were routinely in 2nd and long. We had two each of 2nd and 7, 2nd and 8, 2nd and 9, 2nd and 10, 2nd and 11, and 2nd and 12. Nine out of those 12 game in the 2nd half. I just didn’t understand the conservative play calling when we were having so much success against them.

Run Percentage

Standard

Passing

Auburn

74.3%

50.0%

Ole Miss

72.1%

38.1%

Both teams were content to run the ball. Chizik did not trust his QB and kept the ball on the ground 50% of the passing downs. On Standard downs, we were pretty close to Auburn’s game plan, but did open it up a little on passing downs, but 38% is still higher than last year’s average of 33% runs on passing downs.

TARGETS

Admittedly, I’m not very good at watching a game and seeing what the defense is doing, but it didn’t look like Auburn did a ton to take Moncrief out of the game. He did lead us in targets with 6, but many of those were the extended handoffs. Jeff Scott and Ja-Mes Logan were both targeted 3 times each. Both TEs were targeted twice and Vince Sanders took a little bit of a back seat this game with only two targets after being our leading WR the last two games.

For the first time all year, Moncrief was not our number 1 target in passing situations. That went to Jeff Scott with 3. Moncrief was only targeted twice in passing situations. Maybe Auburn was doing more than it appeared to me to take him out of the game – like I said, when I’m watching a game live, I only follow the ball.

OL and Highlight yards

Our run blocking had another subpar day. The OL yard is defined by giving the OL 100% credit for any yards lost or gained up to 4 yards, then splitting the yardage between 5-10, then giving the RB 100% of the credit after 10 yards. The thought is that the OL is responsible up to a point, but gaining additional yardage due to the RB making someone miss. This was the worst performance besides the Alabama (2.2) and A&M (2.1) games at 2.4 OL YPC. In non-SEC game, our OL was producing 3.7 YPC. Since we’ve gotten into the SEC part of our schedule, OL Yards have dropped to 2.2 YPC.

The other part of the equation is the highlight yards, yardage attributable to the RB. Scott and Wallace were really the only guys to get carries. Scott really blew up in this category ripping off chunks of 10, 11, 16, 34, and 23. Jeff Scott has averaged 20 carries per game in the last 3 after getting 10 carries per game in his first 3 games. Where has Randall Mackey gone?

PASSING

Another game where Wallace got all the passes thrown from the QB position (I love the wrinkle that we’re making teams prepare for with Mackey).

All

Completions

Attempts

Yards

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack %

Eff

Wallace

17

22

226

1

0

2

8.3%

178.56

Standard

Completions

Attempts

Yards

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack %

Eff

Wallace

9

11

116

0

0

0

0.0%

170.40

Passing

Completions

Attempts

Yards

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack %

Eff

Wallace

8

11

110

1

0

2

15.4%

186.73

He was sacked twice, but Wallace had a better passer rating on long yardage downs than standard downs. This is a small sample size and the 55 yarder to Jeff Scott had a lot to do with that though. All in all, a very solid day for Wallace, which brings me back to the question I started with – why keep the ball on the ground against Auburn when Bo was doing so well and Arkansas really carved them up? I guess Freeze was too afraid of turnovers and thought we could beat Auburn without a big day from Wallace. Remembering all that Wallace had been through and not knowing where his head was, it probably was the right course of action.

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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