Stastical Analysis: Ole Miss is a better football team than Auburn, really.

Spruce Derden-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

If games were won on paper, Ole Miss would have the W over Auburn for this Saturday's SEC West matchup.

[Visit the first installment in this series to get a better sense of the methodology used here, if it is not readily clear to you.]

You want to see what a significant statistical advantage over a team looks like? Great, because this week's statistical analysis of Ole Miss and Auburn gives you just that.

Here's the raw data.

CATEGORY Raw OM Raw Auburn "Betterness" Ratio
Scoring O 31.3 15.4 2.03
Total O 434 302.4 1.44
Scoring D 27.7 23.6 0.85
Total D 439 302.4 0.69
Rush O 213 130.4 1.63
Rush D 152.7 189.8 1.24
Pass O 226 172 1.31
Pass D 227.2 220 0.97
Pass E 133.7 108.4 1.23
Pass ED 137.6 134.8 0.98
Sacks 17 10 1.70
Sacks Against 17 17 1.00
3rd Down 50.6 29 1.74
Opp 3rd Down 42.1 26.5 0.63
Penalties 41.5 45.4 1.09
Red Zone O 89.5 70 1.28
Red Zone D 66.7 71.4 1.07

Of note is Ole Miss' third down conversion rate, which is tops in the conference. The marks for sacks given up by both teams and Auburn's rush defense are the worst such marks in the conference.

That's right, you read that correctly, Auburn's rush defense is the worst in the SEC.

Of the 17 statistical categories I keep, Ole Miss has outperformed Auburn in 11 of them. The teams are tied in one category. So in only five categories has Auburn outperformed Ole Miss, and just two of those - total defense and third down defense - see Auburn hold a real distinct advantage.

Oh, and I stopped keeping turnover margin because it skews the numbers wildly, but it is of very critical note that Ole Miss is -1 at turnovers through the year while Auburn is -11, making the Tigers by far and away the worst team in the SEC at protecting the football.

Graphically, that looks like this:


Simply put, through six weeks of football, Ole Miss is better than Auburn at most statistical categories. In the categories which sees an Auburn advantage, the advantage is not too significant.

The Rebels should win this one, but WAOM. Worse things have happened.

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