FanPost

Ole Miss Rebel Baseball: @ Arkansas

I suppose it is my bad luck that I picked our worst year in recent memory to undertake this task.  Ole Miss (37 RPI, 66 PR) travels to Arkansas (13 RPI, 20 PR).  Presenting Ole Miss and Arkansas on a position by position basis.   I'm using the most recent positions, not sure if Bianco plans to keep using this lineup, but it seemed to shake things up a bit.  

Despite playing in a hitter friendly environment, Arkansas has posted anemic offensive numbers across the board.  The park factor for them is 94.1%; schedule factor 105%; combined is 98.8%.  Our current numbers are 96.9% (Park); 104.6% (Schedule); and 101.4% (Combined).  Ficociello and McCann are their best hitters at 1B and C respectively. The one thing they have done well is steal bases as they lead the SEC with 104 steals out of 127 (81.8% efficiency).  Bigham, Kuhn, Reynolds, and Carver all have between 15 and 19 steals.

C AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
HAMBLIN .265 .387 .437 .824 108 .362 .364 16.8
McCann .312 .406 .494 .900 127 .396 .393 10.4

 

1B AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
ALLEN .250 .275 .443 .718 80 .301 .301 30.8
Ficociello .363 .392 .522 .914 130 .403 .393 18.3
2B AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
NEWALU .292 .362 .351 .713 81 .333 .340 12.5
Bigham .291 .350 .383 .733 85 .334 .332 12.4

 

3B AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
YARBROUGH .351 .410 .551 .961 142 .417 .422 11.0
Reynolds .248 .373 .376 .748 90 .347 .347 16.2

 

SS AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
ANDERSON .263 .325 .342 .667 69 .303 .303 16.3
Carver .243 .311 .285 .595 51 .275 .273 9.0

 

OF AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
OVERBEY .233 .278 .331 .609 54 .275 .277 21.4
MATHIS .343 .393 .380 .773 96 .356 .358 3.7
TRACY .283 .333 .392 .725 83 .322 .330 17.8
SMITH .324 .445 .510 .955 142 .414 .422 15.9
Robinson .295 .373 .506 .878 121 .374 .364 18.9
Kuhn .265 .354 .406 .759 92 .343 .340 22.4
McKinney .293 .389 .421 .810 105 .377 .371 19.1

 

DH AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
SNYDER .293 .419 .521 .940 137 .403 .411 19.2
Bates .246 .333 .351 .684 101 .314 .320 30.0

Arkansas did not have a qualified DH, Bates seemed to have some recent playing time there.

Team AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
OLE MISS .285 .363 .415 .778 97 .340 .345 17.2
Arkansas .271 .352 .396 .749 89 .325 .321 18.3
SEC .291 .374 .417 .791 100 .344 .344 15.8

They actually hit worse than we do!

A Tale of Two Snyders; actually 3, when I started this I didn't include the wOBA or K/PA the first time around, so I added a third when he was not at his lowest this year.  May be a case of too little, too late for him (and Hamblin has been coming around too), but nice to see he is at least getting in the groove and not striking out so much.

Matt Snyder AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
5-18-11 .293 .419 .521 .940 137 .403 .411 19.2
3-31-11 .250 .389 .386 .775 92
4-7-11 .260 .398 .420 .818 104 .371 .366 24.4

 

Moving on to pitching.  I have neglected including park and schedule factors in my pitching stats; I feel that is a sorely neglected aspect to what I have done.  Arkansas has a very good staff statistically; they also play in a hitters park.  I'd have to go back and see how they compare to USC and Florida, but looking at the data, it appears they would be adjusted by 86.9% by ERA only which would lower the team ERA to 2.82 which is still behind Vandy, USC, and Florida without adjusting those 3 teams.  I'll have to look at this issue as I go.  Crouse and Baxendale face off tonight; GoForth and Fant on Friday.

Thursday ERA ERA+ K/9 BB/9 WHIP WILD BABIP FIP DICE BAA OBA SAA
CROUSE 3.56 111 6.3 1.8 1.20 2.4 .299 4.65 3.31 .265 .306 .393
Baxendale 1.57 251 8.4 2.0 1.06 3.3 .302 3.89 2.59 .230 .298 .283

 

Friday ERA ERA+ K/9 BB/9 WHIP WILD BABIP FIP DICE BAA OBA SAA
GOFORTH 5.03 79 7.0 3.0 1.39 4.2 .326 4.02 3.13 .272 .336 .369
Fant 3.58 110 4.8 1.9 1.13 3.7 .280 4.46 3.41 .248 .311 .329

Wright will go for us, but the Arkansas Saturday starter has been listed as TBA; ergo, I'm including both Lynch and Moore.  They both pitched 3 innings on Tuesday night, so we could see Stanek as well (he is included in the bullpen section). 

Saturday ERA ERA+ K/9 BB/9 WHIP WILD BABIP FIP DICE BAA OBA SAA
WRIGHT 4.73 84 8.5 3.1 1.49 5.0 .360 3.93 2.93 .288 .353 .420
Lynch 2.75 144 9.5 3.5 1.20 5.8 .302 4.11 3.44 .225 .339 .300
Moore 3.97 100 5.2 2.5 1.41 3.8 .341 4.48 3.51 .298 .363 .344

 

Bullpens ERA ERA+ K/9 BB/9 WHIP WILD BABIP FIP DICE BAA OBA SAA
MORGAN 0.00 5.6 0.8 0.90 0.8 .273 3.65 2.01 .225 .244 .275
HUBER 3.68 107 6.4 6.1 1.47 7.7 .272 3.81 4.06 .230 .350 .310
CALLENDAR 3.78 105 5.9 1.9 1.38 3.2 .349 4.23 3.09 .302 .341 .426
WAHL 4.13 96 7.3 2.5 1.41 4.1 .333 3.74 2.68 .274 .336 .385
MAYERS 5.10 78 8.1 2.7 1.53 4.2 .365 4.00 2.97 .298 .353 .411
Astin 3.00 132 9.4 3.0 1.36 4.0 .358 3.90 3.04 .272 .344 .349
Stanek 4.40 90 5.7 4.0 1.30 5.0 .248 5.02 4.64 .229 .320 .349
Daniel 1.91 207 9.3 4.3 1.06 5.5 .231 3.26 2.95 .169 .283 .208
Sanburn 3.73 106 9.8 4.0 1.31 5.5 .325 3.86 3.38 .239 .344 .319

Not sure what the latest is with Morgan, but it appears as tho he is available and pitching through his pain.  Stanek has started 9 out of 12 games, and we may see him on Saturday if not one of the other two previously mentioned.

 

Team ERA ERA+ K/9 BB/9 WHIP WILD BABIP HR/9 DICE BAA OBA SAA
OLE MISS 4.29 92 7.4 3.2 1.43 4.5 .336 0.47 3.10 .276 .344 .382
Arkansas 3.25 122 7.7 3.3 1.26 4.8 .302 0.42 3.36 .242 .329 .312
SEC 3.96 100 7.5 3.2 1.36 4.7 .318 0.55 3.48 .263 .338 .362

Despite the similarity in peripherals, our staff ERA is much higher.  We have not been too susceptible to the long ball overall; but teams do hit us much harder as shown by how poorly we've fared.

Arkansas takes the first two, before we show up too late once again.  #Negative

(Disclaimer, I use the wOBA and FIP information from College Splits.)

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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