FanPost

Ole Miss Rebel Baseball: MSU Sabermetrics

State seems to be hitting the ball better since we last faced them three weeks ago in Pearl.  The largest increase is in slugging percentage leading them to just over 100 OPS+ when they were just under 100 before the Governor's Cup (And the difference is a little more marked than first glance as they received a boost to compare to the NCAA as a whole which I have moved away from for now).  Parks is still crushing the ball; one of the things I hope to do is probably not going to be done this year, but I'd like to formulate my own WAR system for the SEC.  He is certainly by all standards one of the best players in the SEC, but I'd like to compare players across the board in the future (Such as with Yarbrough, Mahtook, and other standouts.)  

The biggest change for them positively is that Vickerson has moved from average OPS to well above league averages with a 131 OPS+.  He's quieted down on the basepaths, with only 2 steals over the past 3 weeks, but you don't have to steal when you're hitting the cover off the ball, I reckon.

Our park and combined factors are identical:  the combined schedule/park factor for MSU is 100.7 with a park index of 96.4 and a schedule value of 104.6;  Ole Miss is at 100.7, 96.4, and 104.2, so we have only played a slightly less difficult schedule. I have also included our stats with (Ole Miss A) and without (Ole Miss B) Matt Smith.

MSU POS AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
Thigpen C .254 .323 .316 .639 63 .296 .299 16.4
Collins 1B/OF .274 .383 .342 .725 85 .340 .345 11.2
Norris 1B .286 .412 .363 .775 98 .359 .363 19.3
Vickerson 2B .312 .418 .494 .912 131 .403 .407 18.0
Parks 3B .419 .554 .574 1.128 187 .501 .503 13.9
Ogden SS .263 .354 .467 .821 108 .366 .368 18.7
Bradford  OF .295 .385 .344 .729 86 .343 .345 7.8
Shepherd OF .306 .434 .444 .878 123 .399 .402 15.1
Freeman DH/C .313 .403 .406 .809 106 .369 .371 18.1
MSU
.290 .392 .397 .789 101 .350 .353 15.8
Ole Miss A
.281 .358 .408 .767 95 .335 .338 17.6
Ole Miss B
.279 .351 .400 .751 90 .328 .330 17.7
SEC
.290 .374 .414 .788 100 .345 .345 15.8

 

Graveman picked up the win against us mid-week, and we have not seen any of their weekend starters.  They have changed them around somewhat it appears with a scheduled rotation of Pollerano, Routt, and Stratton.  Pollerano has previously only started one game, Routt missed some time and has started 8, and Stratton has moved from "Friday" to "Sunday" starter which in this case is Thursday and Saturday.  Jones and Mitchell have also starter for them.  Reed is their closer with 9 saves, and real good peripherals all around.  Their pitching staff is nowhere near as dominant as the last two we've faced, but is slightly better than ours for the most part. 

MSU ERA ERA+ K/9 BB/9 WHIP WILD BABIP FIP DICE HR/9 BAA OBA SGA
Pollerano 2.61 148 5.9 2.8 1.24 4.3 .288 4.33 3.21 0.24 .245 .318 .301
Routt 3.66 106 8.2 3.7 1.44 4.8 .341 3.66 3.31 0.56 .273 .351 .364
Stratton 4.84 80 8.8 3.1 1.36 4.5 .337 4.08 3.34 0.76 .268 .339 .398
Graveman 3.67 105 5.8 1.5 1.10 3.0 .301 4.42 3.05 0.43 .258 .306 .358
Jones 4.44 87 7.8 3.1 1.29 5.0 .321 3.50 2.84 0.18 .254 .335 .343
Reed 0.88 440 10.8 3.1 1.00 4.2 .283 2.72 2.17 0.22 .193 .284 .250
Girodo 6.04 64 8.5 3.9 1.66 5.0 .372 4.31 3.79 0.71 .298 .381 .433
Mitchell 4.13 94 7.0 3.2 1.45 5.1 .341 3.67 2.72 0.00 .274 .344 .310
MSU 4.02 96 8.1 3.5 1.37 5.2 .329
3.21 0.41 .262 .346 .355
Ole Miss 4.18 92 7.4 3.2 1.42 4.4 .333
3.20 0.53 .275 .343 .383
SEC 3.86 100 7.5 4.0 1.43 4.7 .317
3.43 0.53 .260 .335 .357

 

(Disclaimer, I use the wOBA and FIP information from College Splits.)

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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