FanPost

Ole Miss Rebel Baseball Sabermetrics: at #4 Florida

I think we know the drill.  We have now moved slightly over 100 on our combined schedule and park factor as our level of competition has increased due to having played more SEC games.  Combined we are at 100.7 with a park factor of 96.5 and a schedule factor of 104.2.  While Tracy has struggled pitching against increased level of competition he does appear to be an SEC level outfielder, as he is at a 105 OPS+.  I haven't included the park/schedule factor and merely weigh it against the league averages.  Snyder appears to be trending upward as well, which we will definitely need as we move into the remainder of SEC play.  As a team, we are still below league average. 'Cept for strike outs, we are good at those.

Ole Miss POS AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
Hightower C .284 .385 .338 .773 96 .343 .346 20.0
Hamblin 1B .256 .365 .350 .715 82 .333 .343 15.7
Yarbrough 2B .350 .407 .538 .944 139 .410 .412 10.3
Newalu SS .316 .384 .368 .753 92 .348 .351 13.1
Overbey 3B .243 .288 .351 .639 62 .286 .286 20.6
Tracy OF .312 .356 .456 .812 105 .357 .357 17.8
Mathis OF .335 .396 .377 .773 97 .356 .358 3.6
Smith OF .305 .427 .481 .908 130 .408 .410 15.2
Snyder DH .273 .392 .445 .837 112 .374 .376 22.2
Ole Miss
.286 .364 .406 .770 95 .338 .340 17.3

Florida is a beast.  They boast two of the best players in the SEC in Fontana and Zunino (according to a collegesplits tweet, they are #1 and #2 in WAR for the SEC respectively; I haven't seen that data published).  As a team they have a 113 OPS+ and the only qualifier below league average is Maddox.

Florida POS AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wOBA wOBA+ K/PA
Zunino C .364 .446 .587 1.033 161 .447 .486 7.4
Tucker 1B .331 .393 .572 .966 144 .414 .452 9.6
Adams 2B .369 .411 .525 .936 137 .414 .447 13.2
Fontana SS .332 .442 .455 .897 128 .409 .440 9.8
Maddox 3B .302 .354 .352 .706 80 .324 .353 23.0
Pigott OF .327 .365 .460 .825 109 .362 .394 27.0
Johnson OF/DH .325 .408 .463 .872 121 .389 .419 15.1
Smith OF .321 .431 .434 .865

Washington OF .284 .377 .388 .765



Florida
.315 .387 .453 .840 113 .355 .385 14.5
SEC
.290 .376 .412 .788 100 .345 .345 15.8

 

The good news is we get Morgan back; it will be interesting (and likely frustrating!) seeing how Bianco uses our staff with Morgan back.  He has as of yet to allow an earned run before his injury.  I've added the averages against for our and Florida's staffs.  I was kind of curious, just at the disparity of some pitchers in allowing extra base hits.  

 

Ole Miss ERA ERA+ K/9 BB/9 WHIP WILD BABIP FIP+ DICE HR/9 BAA OBA SGA
Crouse 2.81 130 6.3 1.3 1.05 1.7 .278 4.65 3.21 0.80 .244 .278 .368
GoForth 4.60 79 6.7 3.6 1.42 5.0 .322 4.03 3.35 0.45 .270 .347 .348
Wright 4.36 83 8.4 3.4 1.53 4.9 .362 3.73 2.98 0.50 .290 .356 .402
Tracy 4.43 82 10.6 5.1 1.64 5.9 .398 2.83 2.65 0.21 .280 .382 .396
Morgan 0.00 6.3 1.0 0.91 1.0 .283 3.41 1.93 0.00 .227 .250 .288
Wahl 3.06 119 8.2 2.0 1.30 3.6 .327 3.57 2.60 0.51 .264 .312 .375
Huber 4.03 90 6.9 6.0 1.57 7.7 .302 3.83 4.07 0.40 .256 .365 .333
Callender 3.25 112 6.5 2.0 1.27 3.3 .325 4.12 3.14 0.65 .276 .315 .390
Mayers 5.48 66 7.8 3.5 1.65 4.7 .368 3.59 3.00 0.39 .302 .364 .396
Ole Miss 3.62 104 7.4 3.3 1.36 4.3 .323
3.08 0.45 .263 .332 .357


Florida is a beast.  Did you ever get that strange feeling of deja vu?  All of their weekend starters have been lights out.  Randall is interesting; he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, but he doesn't allow base runners, either.  They are well above league average in ERA and most of the other peripheral statistics.  

Florida ERA ERA+ K/9 BB/9 WHIP WILD BABIP FIP+ DICE HR/9 BAA OBA SGA
Randall 1.53 245 4.6 0.6 0.88 0.7 .243 4.50 2.63 0.42 .220 .234 .299
Johnson 2.53 149 7.6 1.6 1.02 1.9 .276 3.87 2.05 0.47 .225 .262 .305
Whitson 2.53 167 9.0 3.1 1.19 4.3 .314 2.90 1.17 0.00 .230 .305 .293
DeSclafani 4.10 91 8.2 1.4 1.06 2..1 .280 4.78 2.89 1.03 .235 .278 .382
Panteliodis 5.22 72 7.4 1.5 1.33 3.4 .322 5.65 3.99 1.53 .286 .336 .462
Maronde 2.25 167 12.8 1.9 0.92 3.0 .300 2.97 1.63 0.75 .198 .266 .302
Rodriguez 1.61 233 9.7 3.2 1.21 4.8 .310 3.52 1.84 0.40 .232 .319 .329
Larson 2.13 176 6.7 0.7 0.99 2.8 .289 3.80 2.25 0.36 .240 .270 .281
Florida 2.64 142 7.6 1.9 1.11 3.1 .293
2.20 0.47 .238 .290 .329
SEC 3.75 100 7.7 4.0 1.41 4.6 .316
3.33 0.50 .257 .332 .349

I don't have a good feeling towards our chances.  Oh, there park factor weighs in at 101.4 and their schedule factor comes in at 107.0; combined it is 108.4.

(Disclaimer, I use the wOBA and FIP information from College Splits)

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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