FanPost

Is it in the cards for Bianco?

[ED--Our good friend (and my freshman year roommate) weloveum looks at the numbers behind the Bianco era.  He does a good job of explaining this himself.  I thought his work deserved to be frontpaged.  This is not an endorsement of Bianco nor a cry for his dismissal.  Weloveum just looks at the numbers]

There is a mantra among Bianco-lovers that he will make it to Omaha soon enough. He's had bad luck, we've had bad draws, et cetera. And once we get there, our program will be among the elite for good. But do the numbers back this up? Are there examples of coaches who took this long (over a decade) to make it to the College World Series, but then reached it multiple times? I researched this very question. 

I looked at all the coaches who have reached the College World Series since 1993 (arbitrary cutoff, but large enough sample size) and found out how many years of coaching at that school it took them to make it to Omaha. The numbers are below. Coaches who made it at two different schools are listed separately for each school. 

Season # when Reached CWS - Coach's Name (School if applicable)

1 - Tim Esmay
1 - Mike Martin
1 - Jim Morris
1 - Dan McDonnell
1 - Danny Hall
1 - Pat McMahon (MSU)
1 - Dave Snow
1 - Jim Brock
1 - Cliff Gustafson
2 - Jack Leggett
2 - Dave Van Horn (AR)
2 - Dave Serrano (CSF)
2 - Paul Mainieri (LSU)
2 - Smoke Laval
2 - Ron Polk (GA)
2 - Jim Wells
3 - Kevin O'Sullivan
3 - George Horton
3 - Dave Perno
3 - Dave Serrano (UCI)
3 - Mike Anderson
3 - Andy Lopez
3 - Skip Bertman
3 - Tom Holliday
4 - Pat Murphy
4 - Augie Garrido
4 - Ron Polk (MSU)
4 - Pat McMahon (UF)
4 - Dave Van Horn (NE)
4 - Gary Ward
4 - Larry Cochell
5 - Mike Marquess
5 - Mike Batesole
5 - Dave Bingham
6 - Sunny Golloway
6 - Ray Tanner
6 - John Savage
6 - Brian O'Connor
6 - Wayne Graham
6 - Rod Delmonico
6 - Tony Robichaux
6 - Gene Stephenson
7 - Jim Schlossnagle
8 - Mike Fox
8 - Rick Jones
8 - Paul Mainieri (ND)
9 - Mike Gillespie
9 - Mark Johnson
9 - Hal Baird
11 - Pat Casey
11 - Steve Smith
12 - Corky Palmer
13 - Sam Piraro
21 - Keith Guttin
22 - Gary Adams

Looking at the numbers a bit, we find the total number of coaches at 55. The median number of years is took is 4. The mode is 1 (yeah). And the mean is 5.

Out of those 55 coaches, only 6 took more than 10 years to reach the CWS. So there's a greater than 10% chance Bianco could still do it? Well yeah, but the other side of the numbers is that out of those 6 coaches, only 1 has been more than one time (Pat Casey), and 4 of them retired without another appearance (only Steve Smith is still at it). Corky Palmer, Sam Piraro, and Keith Guttin all reached the CWS on Cinderella runs with mid-majors. Based on 18 years of past data, the crude interpretation we can make is that the odds of Bianco making the CWS more than once stand at a mere 1.8%. 

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Switching gears a little, I looked at all the losing super regional teams (supers started in 1999). Listed below are all teams which have lost at least 4 super regionals, and how many CWS appearances they have made in the super regional era. 

Team - Super Losses - Super Wins/CWS
Florida State - 6 - 4
Clemson - 5 - 4
South Carolina - 4 - 4
Miami - 4 - 6
Ole Miss - 4 - 0

Now, you could look at this data in one of two ways:
1: Bianco is the ONLY coach who couldn't win even once out of FOUR super regional opportunities. Never mind winning four times like Martin, Leggett, and Tanner. 
2: Bianco has come closer than any other coach, so the data above are not applicable. 

Choose for yourself. 

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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