FanPost

Amateur Sabremetrics


[EDIT: Ghost and I are working on an article about our Saturday struggles. This was going to be a portion of it, but Thile has done a great job here. Check it out. -Juco] I made the comment that if I was smarter and less lazy, I would be more inclined to play with some sabremetric analysis for our baseball team.

However; Ghost made the comment about Goforth (albeit indirectly "Even though this team can't figure out how to win on Saturdays") and I noticed that while he was 0-4 with a 3.38 ERA, Matt Tracy was 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA.  

Analyses after the jump.  

Obviously, I think the first issue is level of competition; Goforth has been our Saturday Starter whereas Tracy has faced midweek level competition.  Will be curious to see how he does against USM tonight (moreso after I go back and read what BWE has posted it looked like).  Secondly, SMALL SAMPLE SIZE.  

Again, I was doing this for my own shits 'n' giggles but figured since I looked at it, might as well share...

Some common stats.  Tracy gets more strikeouts.  I think I could summarize it pretty simply with that stat (K's per 9).  He has actually allowed more baserunners (WHIP) but strikeouts are a pitchers best friend.  I just looked at the simple ratios at first, and included HBP as those are more prevalent at the college level than the pro's.  

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Defensive Independent Component ERA (DICE) are basically the same number; quick indicator of expected ERA.  

Bill James also invented something called Game Scores - how well a pitcher performs in an individual game.  

 

 

EDIT:  Had an error in my formula that adjusted the totals slightly.  Makes the scores closer than original

I think Tracy has been better (level of competition!) but not markedly better.  Goforth pitched well enough to win - Huber lost the first ND and Morgan won the second.  

I assume from the quote above that Ghost wanted to look at our Saturday support, but I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention it.  

                     Runs           Runs as pitcher of record

Goforth           3.33             1.83

Tracy              4.6                2.6

We've given Tracy just that much extra support.  Basically a run a game.  

His ability to strikeout (level of competion!) has been the biggest separator between the two.  

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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