YTD +/- for Ole Miss Basketball

by buster_bluth on Dec 6, 2011 2:27 PM EST

Disclaimer: I fully recognize that +/- statistics are an imperfect measurement of a player's impact on a game in a single game scenario. With 9 other players on the court, there's a lot that an individual has zero control over. I do think that over the course of the season though, it starts to paint a picture. And since Excel does everything for me except 8-10 minutes of data entry, why not?

This is definitely a new look Rebels team from the past several seasons. Gone are the explosive scoring and the defensive detriments of Chris Warren. Instead, it's a team that plays very good defense (outside of the Marquette game) and one searching for an identity on offense. I've harped on the Ewing Theory regarding Warren repeatedly on this site and I still believe this will be the year that Kennedy's Rebs break through and Dance at the end of the year, but time will tell.

Anyway, on to the numbers...

For those unfamiliar with the metric, +/- is a running total of the score differential while a player is the game. If, while in the game, you outscore your opponent 8-4 before you're subbed out, your +/- would be +4. If, on your next time in, you're outscored 12-10, your running total would be +2: (+4+(-2))=+2.

See below for +/- numbers on the top 9 players on the team, as well as the team's Points Per Minute (PPM) on offense and defense while they are in. YTD, Nick Williams far and away has the +/- lead. He's starting to play like we expected on his transfer. He's yet to really disappear in key moments like he did during conference season last year.

YTD +/- (All Games)

#	Player	Total +/-	PPM (O)	PPM (D)
20	Nick Williams	56	1.73	1.49
31	Murphy Holloway	43	1.64	1.47
32	Jarvis Summers	40	1.69	1.51
4	Demarco Cox	39	1.86	1.55
1	Terrance Henry	27	1.69	1.58
5	Dundrecous Nelson	14	1.72	1.65
23	Reginald Buckner	4	1.71	1.68
34	Aaron Jones	3	1.39	1.35
12	Maurice Aniefiok	-11	1.48	1.60

The one anomaly on here I would expect to change soon is that Buckner has the worst PPM (D) rating so far. His minutes have been limited this season due to injury and asshattery, but there's no denying his defensive prowess.

Probably more important is the +/- stats for the 4 close games we've played. One of the biggest struggles Chris had was late game decision making. Outside of that huge 3 he drained against UK last year, he had missed buzzer beaters or committed turnovers in those situations thourghout his career. This year though, our two starting guards - Jarvis Summers and Nick Williams - are pacing the way in close games, as it should be. Sure they both benefitted greatly from the 17-0 lead against Miami, but so did Murph, Cox, and Henry. Summers has had the typical freshman jitters at times, but his improvement from the Monroe game to the Penn State game is unbelievable.

Close Game +/-

		Drake	Miami	@DePaul	@Penn St	Total
32	Jarvis Summers	9	18	-1	3	29
20	Nick Williams	-3	11	13	2	23
31	Murphy Holloway	9	8	2	-3	16
23	Reginald Buckner	9	--	-5	8	12
4	Demarco Cox	3	6	3	-5	7
1	Terrance Henry	0	5	0	-6	-1
5	Dundrecous Nelson	3	-9	-8	7	-7
34	Aaron Jones	-7	-7	3	4	-7
12	Maurice Aniefiok	-3	-23	3	0	-23

The numbers will be bloated a little over the next two games as the Rebs have a couple of laughers, but it will be interesting to see how Kendrick and White fit into the lineup. If I were Terrance Henry, I'd be a little concerned about my minutes.

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Comments

I'd be shocked if AK

sat Henry, but I’d like to see it happen and believe it would be the right move. He is just too consistently underwhelming to warrant the minutes (and offensive sets designed to get him the ball) that he gets right now. Perhaps he’ll pick it up like he has in seasons past?

Mildly surprised to see Williams lead the team in +/-, though it makes sense when you think about it. I have been impressed with him so far. Even more surprised to see Demarco Cox as high up in the +/- rankings as he is. I’m sure that will change as the season progresses (and he probably benefits from playing with the starters and then sitting the rest of the game), but he normally looks mediocre while on the court. I like his effort though.

I am with you- I think Warren’s “clutchness” was a tad overrated. I am thankful for the big shots he did hit (Arkansas and UK come to mind), but I remember him turning the ball over and missing some awful shots way more often than I remember him winning games for us. I think it was two seasons ago when he dribbled out of bounds at the end of a close game at UT in the regular season and then dribbled off his foot at the end of a game against UT in the SEC tourney that we had to win to get into the Big Dance?

by bball1984 on Dec 6, 2011 2:55 PM EST reply actions

If Kendrick lives up to his billing, I don't know how you don't get him for Terrance

Terrico White was able to sleep walk through a large portion of his last season because we just didn’t have anyone else to play his position. Like Terrico, there’s no denying Terrance’s God-given ability, but you’ve got to produce, and aside from a few shining moments this year, he’s been a non-factor. With a slew, perhaps even a plethora of talented wing/bigs this year,

Just for shiggles, here’s the breakdown of the nightmare that was the Marquette game.

1 Terrance Henry -25
4 Demarco Cox -13
5 Dundrecous Nelson -18
12 Maurice Aniefiok -5
20 Nick Williams -27
23 Reginald Buckner -16
31 Murphy Holloway -21
32 Jarvis Summers -20
34 Aaron Jones -1

I listen for the voice inside my head... nothin... I'll do this one myself

by buster_bluth on Dec 6, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

and now to actually finish my thought...

With a slew, perhaps even a plethora of talented wing/bigs this year, I hope he’s not afforded that luxury.

I listen for the voice inside my head... nothin... I'll do this one myself

by buster_bluth on Dec 6, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think Henry and Kendrick will play the same role

I honestly expect AK to move Kendrick to the 2 spot. Summer, Kendrick, Henry, Holloway and Buckner would be his ideal lineup. Then bring Nelson off the bench as a Joezon Darby role. Nick Williams would be one of the first off the bench along with Nelson, White and Cox.

by J.J. Sims on Dec 6, 2011 9:07 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think we're rewritng the Chris Warren chapter today

but I gotta make sure. Was it a late game decision making problem, or that the game was always on him? It’s tough to be clutch when the other team is zoned on you after you’ve run around the gym scoring like Chris Warren all game (+33 min/game career). I won’t say he was a clutch player, but he won tons of games despite he weaknesses.

Tebowing (will always be): not trying hard enough, then crying like a bitch

by Old HWY 6 on Dec 6, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

No rewriting, just looking at more than gaudy offensive stats

Before anything else, as a basketball lover, I’m grateful I got to see him play in red and blue. He’s truly one of the all-time greats in the SEC, and that’s with just 3.5 years of playing. Without the ACL tear, who knows what his final stats could’ve been.

But the truth is, he failed in endgame situations far more than he succeeded and he was a horrible defender. While I grant you that the blame for the first part can be shared AK’s scheme/recruiting of other pieces, his lack of effort on the defensive end cannot.

I posted this about a year ago about this same topic. To date, while our offensive efficiency is way down from last year – 100.7 points/100 posessions this year, 111.8 last year – our defensive efficiency is way up – 91.7 points/100 possessions this year, 100.7 last year. We’re actually playing a little quicker too – 69.9 possessions/game this season, up from 67.6 last season.

As this team gels, the offensive numbers will improve. And the defense will only get better with the addition of Kendrick.

I listen for the voice inside my head... nothin... I'll do this one myself

by buster_bluth on Dec 6, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

I'm right with you on the Ewing Theory - these stats are unavoidable

I’m with you on Warren’s defensive failings. Still struggling with the perception of his failiure in endgame situations, even considering his overall offensive stats. I certainly can’t agree that because he was a bad defender over an entire game, he was a failure in endgame situations. Maybe we’re just remebering disparate great/shitty plays where Warren had a chance to win and did/didn’t.

In my mind, however, how a player performs in endgame situations is what he does in the last, say, 90 seconds. If so, then certain stats during that period (eg, his and our opponents’ FG%/FTA/FT%) are indicative of sucess. I believe that Warren’s FTA/% during this period should be considered. Maybe there is a better metric for a player’s defense in this period than opp FG%, but it’s something, and we’d both agree it probably wouldn’t favor Warren anyway.

Not trying to change your mind. But I think we should consider what a guy does to hold on to Ws (and maybe even make Ls closer) along with turning Ls into Ws when we rate success in endgame situations. Otherwise, we may confuse how a very good if not great player performed in ciritcial moments with the team’s (or coach’s) shorting-comings over an entire game.

Tebowing (will always be): not trying hard enough, then crying like a bitch

by Old HWY 6 on Dec 6, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions

Let's all thank our lucky stars

that Murphy Holloway is back with the Rebels! Love that guy!

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by charlym on Dec 6, 2011 3:25 PM EST reply actions

Nick Williams

has been excellent so far this year.

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by Juco All-American on Dec 6, 2011 3:40 PM EST reply actions

What are your predictions

for our starting 5 by the middle of SEC play?

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by charlym on Dec 6, 2011 3:49 PM EST reply actions

Good Question

The only locks are Summers and Holloway. Nobody else on the team brings what they do. The way Nick has played this year, I’d say he’s certainly got the inside track to keep that 2G spot, even if White plays well. It’d be tough to have two true freshman starting in the backcourt.

The toss ups are in the middle and wing. I still think Buck will back to the starting center full time by them, so long as his head stays on the outside of his ass the rest of the season. As for the wing, I hope it’s Kendrick if only because that would mean he’s playing out of this world to unseat a 4-year starter.

More telling than the starters will be the minutes each logs as we get into the rigors of the SEC season. The depth AK has to work with this season is a pleasant change from previous years. And with only Stead and Terrance as seniors, this could be the beginning of a nice run.

I listen for the voice inside my head... nothin... I'll do this one myself

by buster_bluth on Dec 6, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

I guess I meant who our "go-to" lineup would be

but you answered that for me I think. I think our best line up will end up being Summers, Williams, Kendrick, Murph and Buck.

I agree about depth. I can’t remember the last time we had a legit 2nd unit like this.

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by charlym on Dec 6, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

If we are already shooting poorly, Kendrick will play the 2

Summer, Kendrick, Henry, Holloway, Buckner

Nelson, White, and Williams will be getting legitimate minutes
Cox, Jones, and Short as needed based on fouls and pace

by J.J. Sims on Dec 6, 2011 9:11 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the stats!

I’m pumpd that Williams’ effort is showing up. And Henry’s +/- isn’t that bad. How AK distributes minutes leading up to conference play will be interesting, to say the least.

Tebowing (will always be): not trying hard enough, then crying like a bitch

by Old HWY 6 on Dec 6, 2011 4:43 PM EST reply actions