Who Wants some BCS Chaos?
This Saturday's LSU vs. Alabama matchup, which is already being far too prematurely dubbed the "Game of the Century" - marking the second such game we've had so far since 2000 - will have a decided impact on the forthcoming bowl season and the BCS championship game which culminates it. LSU and Alabama, as we all know, sit at numbers one and two respectively in the BCS standings but, by virtue of being in the same conference division, cannot possibly play in the BCS national championship game. That has led many to treat this game as some sort of de facto national title matchup, presuming that the winner here will go on to play in and win the BCS championship match.
That, frankly, is a bit too boring for me. I do not want my college football season decided in week ten. I want absolutely heart wrenching, media firestorm inducing, collective hand wringing chaos, and I think this weekend could be the weekend during which such begins.
With Clemson, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma all losing in recent weeks, we are now left with four unbeaten teams from automatically qualifying BCS conferences: LSU and Alabama from the SEC, Stanford from the Pac 12, and Oklahoma State from the Big XII. Also undefeated are a pair of potential "BCS Busters", a term far more cliched than "game of the century", in undefeated Boise State and Houston.
If we assume that everyone who is winning now will continue winning and presume that all more highly ranked teams will defeat all more lowly ranked teams, then LSU will play - and defeat - Oklahoma State in the BCS National Title Game.
There, that's it. Case closed. Season's over.
Of course you, I, and everyone else who gives half of a damn about this sport will continue watching the season long after its outcome is clearly destined, but I do believe that we will, under such a circumstance, wonder what could have been. So let's do that; let's talk about what can become of this.
Let's say LSU wins. Let's give them, their #1 ranking, their incredible good luck streak, their freakish athletes, and their batshit head coach the collective benefit of the doubt and say they squeak one out over the Tide in Tuscaloosa. Alabama then goes on to run the table, predictably on the back of Trent Richardson, to finish 11-1.
But, during that final week of football, where Alabama predictably drags Auburn's limp carcass around Jordan-Hare Stadium for a half-hour, LSU ups and loses to another team in the BCS' top-ten, Arkansas.
This, of course, presumes that Arkansas does win this weekend's other matchup between two top-ten teams as they face South Carolina before the Alabama-LSU game, but that's a given in this game.
So where are we then? We're in the position that Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma found themselves in in 2008, is where. We will have an 11-1 LSU, an 11-1 Arkansas, and an 11-1 Alabama in a logically impossible three way tie (X can be greater than Y, and Y can be greater than Z, but Z cannot be greater than X). By rule, whoever leads in the BCS standings would be given the nod to represent the West in the SEC Title game. I have no reason to conclude that Arkansas, assuming they win by a fairly normal margin, would take on the Gamecocks in Atlanta.
If Stanford and Oklahoma State can win out, something which cannot be treated as a given considering that the they have Oregon and Oklahoma remaining on their respective schedules, then the logical conclusion is that the Cardinal will face the Cowboys in one of the least watched BCS Championship Games ever. But if either of them are to lose, you'd then have the pesky Broncos of Boise State in the driver seat for a championship bid (never you mind the fact that the only better-than-decent team they've played this season is Georgia).
But let's say Boise State pulls a Boise State and does something like lose to UNLV or Wyoming, Stanford loses to Oregon, and Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma. What would we have then?
We'd have Arkansas or South Carolina playing Houston in the BCS Title Game. Or maybe Clemson. Or maybe even Nebraska. But the long and short of it is that we'd have convoluted, chaotic nonsense, with nearly a dozen teams all clamoring for their legitimacy as a contendor to, amidst a cloud of appropriately-colored confetti, lift the crystal football at the end of the college football season, while we fans sit around and wonder just why it is exactly that our favorite brand of our favorite sport can't get with the picture and move to a damned playoff system already.
Suffice it to say that the rest of the season could either be very, very interesting, or woefully predictable. All of that begins this Saturday.
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Of all the "BCS busters" in recent years
you think this Houston team has a better shot at making the big game over several AQ-conference 1-loss teams?
I don’t see an undefeated Houston team finishing above 1-loss Stanford, 1-loss OK State, 1-loss Oklahoma, 1-loss Alabama, AND 1-loss LSU. Even if you’re throwing out the possible all-SEC scenarios, there are still have several quality 1-loss teams.
I think if they're 13-0 after a drubbing of a top 20 or even 15 Southern Miss team
in the CUSA championship game, then there’s a chance.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Sports are chaotic and stupid; and we're bad at them.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Nov 2, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Houston is 14th, they do not play anyone ranked in the top 20. There is no way
they may break the top 10 at the end of season but they’ll be too far down. If they go undefeated they’ll end up like the 1998 Tulane team playing in the liberty bowl, a top 10 ranking, and then watch their HC headed to a BCS school.
by RLBruceDickinson on Nov 2, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Houston's schedule is tougher than BSU
and if they beat a top ranked Southern Miss team to end the season they would have a more recent “big win” than BSU.
So the logic dictates that 1) Houston should be ranked higher than BSU and 2) BSU is ranked too high
"I solemnly swear to tell the truth as I know it, the whole truth as I believe it to be, and nothing but what I think you need to know."
I like the scenario that you describe
One loss Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, OSU, Oklahoma, Stanford, Oregon, and FWIW lets put a one loss Penn State in there with a one loss Clemson.
I think that any one of those teams would have a greater “claim” to the BCS championship game than an undefeated BSU.
"I solemnly swear to tell the truth as I know it, the whole truth as I believe it to be, and nothing but what I think you need to know."
My Wish....
LSU beats Bama
Arky wins out
3 way 11-1 tie.
Graduated University of Mississippi Leonard McCoy School of Medicine, 2481
by SkylarkThibedeau on Nov 3, 2011 11:36 AM EDT reply actions
SEC Tie-break Chaos
Even more chaotic is that if your scenario/game played out in the SEC West where LSU beats Bama, and Arkansas beats LSU … the highest ranked team in the BCS does not necessarily win the West. In that scenario, if the highest ranked of the 3 teams in the three way tie is ranked within 5 spots of the second highest ranked team, and that second highest tem has beaten the higher ranked team head to head, the second highest ranked team wins the West and goes to the SECCG. So if LSU were to beat Bama and knock Bama down to say #7 or 8 (causing Ark to move up if they beat SC), then Ark later was to upset LSU and knock LSU down to #7 or 8 (by then Bama has prob moved up a spot or two) … then let’s say at season’s end that leaves Ark ranked #2, Bama ranked #4 (bc only one loss to the then #1 team a month earlier), and LSU ranked #6 (bc their loss was later in the year to a highly ranked team). Because Ark and Bama are within 5 spots of each other in the BCS and Bama beat Ark head to head, Bama would go go the SECCG, despite the fact Ark was higher ranked and in position to play for the BCS NC. THAT would be chaos! That said, I think Bama probably edges LSU at home, LSU knocks off Ark in Baton Rouge and its Bama in the NC, LSU in the Sugar and 10-2 Ark in the Cotton.
But suppose
They all Finish 11-1. Ark is ranked #3 Bama 4 and LSU 6. Ok State loses in big 12 championship. Which plays Stanford in the BCS and Which is left out of a BCS Bowl?
Graduated University of Mississippi Leonard McCoy School of Medicine, 2481
by SkylarkThibedeau on Nov 4, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Bama 12-1 in that case after beating GA in ATL
Graduated University of Mississippi Leonard McCoy School of Medicine, 2481
by SkylarkThibedeau on Nov 4, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
But … continuing to play this scenario … would Bama beating GA be enough to leap up over a #2 or #3 Arkansas? As a Hog fan, I’d hate that we’d be ranked higher and not get to go to the SECCG, and that the fact we didn’t get to go due to a tie-break rule might allow Bama to leapfrog over us after winning it. But logically, Arkansas had its chance to beat Bama on the field and didn’t get it done. Anyway, the theme was “chaos” and clearly a 3-way tie in the West with all ranked in the Top 10 and the circle of one who beat the other who beat the other would be chaotic for the BCS.
What do you mean " Boise State pulls a Boise State..." ?
Are you talking about Nevada last year? That went 11-1? I’m not understanding the inference.
That's exactly what I'm talking about, yes.
Red Cup Rebellion - Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics
Sports are chaotic and stupid; and we're bad at them.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Nov 6, 2011 7:46 PM EST up reply actions

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