The SEC West Home Stretch

[ED: Sutpens does a bangup job of looking at the rest of the West and seeing just where they stand and just what the Rebels need to do to claim the sole lead in said division and hang onto it. Also, there's a funny screen cap of ANGRY DOUCHE MODE BRIAN WALKER GRRR which, itself, is worthy of bein' frontpag'd. Take it away, Sutpens.]

Attempting to handicap the SEC West with seven conference series played and three to go is, without a doubt, a fool's errand. I pour over the schedules, the records, the numbers, the reality that very likely five West teams will be in Hoover anyway, and think: "Right up my alley." Fool reporting for duty, errands run for tips.  Obviously, there’s a lot more at stake than seeding in Hoover – RPI, hosting a regional and possibly hosting a super. Arkansas, by all accounts, has the inside track for a top 8 national seed, with Ole Miss, once out of the discussion, now something of a long shot.  As a commenter recently said, all the Rebels have to do is close the regular season on a 20-game winning streak. If that’s all we have to do, take heart: we’re halfway there. 

The current lay of the land and the road ahead  -

Ole Miss and Arkansas are tied for the division lead, each with a record of 14-7. The winner of this weekend’s series will plainly be in the catbird seat for the SEC West crown; a sweep by either team would almost seal the deal, and an unlikely Rebel sweep would be a giant step toward hosting a super-regional (but with a lot of work remaining to be done). Auburn is two games back and LSU one behind them, and neither can be counted out. With Arkansas and Auburn coming to Oxford within the next couple of weeks, Ole Miss controls its own destiny:  all the Rebels have to do is keep winning.

The Rebels have won 5 conference series, sweeping 2, and losing 2 without being swept; the Razorbacks have won 4 series, sweeping 3, and losing 3 without being swept. Ole Miss and Arkansas have played 5 common SEC opponents thus far: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU and MSU. The Rebels are a healthy 12-3 against those teams, while Arkansas is only 9-5. Ole Miss is hot, riding a conference leading ten-game winning streak. At times like these, Rebels have learned to wonder: how long can it last?  Well, as long as Drew continues (mostly) to own Friday night, we keep hitting and cobbling together sufficient Saturday and Sunday pitching...and the Baseball Gods keep looking the other way. Who knows? But of the Rebs’ last 3 SEC series, they play the toughest 2, Arkansas (5/7) and Auburn (5/20) at home, with Alabama on the road (5/14).

After a very strong start (including a recent 13 game winning streak), Arkansas, which, as you may have heard, comes to Oxford this weekend, MAY have finally begun to cool. Or not. And as the head-to-head comparison suggests, they may not be quite as good as their news clippings suggest. The Hogs are a really good - and dangerous - team, sporting a sure enough (if under-praised) Friday night ace in Drew Smyly (7-0; 2.19 ERA) and the league's  best hitter (Zack Cox, .443 after 185 at bats).   But the Hogs have dropped their last two SEC series, to Auburn, at home in Fayettenam this past weekend, and to Florida on the road the week before. They probably feel like they have something (else) to prove. Until the most recent series loss to Auburn the Razorbacks were a consensus Top 8 seed -- and odds are they can still bring home the bacon. But their schedule is not their friend: the Hogs have to play at Oxford (5/7) and Vandy (5/14) -- and then host South Carolina (5/20) to close the season. [The Gamecocks are the only SEC team to have won all 7 conference series they’ve played thus far].

The Auburn High Tigers

Auburn, at two games back of Ole Miss and Arkansas, may actually be in a pretty good position. Auburn is 12-9 in conference play, having won 4 series (1 sweep) and lost 3 (no sweeps). Common opponents played thus far are Georgia, Kentucky, LSU and South Carolina. Both Ole Miss and Auburn are 8-4 against those teams. The plains-war-tiger-eagles do travel to Oxford (5/20), but otherwise will play in front of (small) home crowds against MSU (5/7) and Tennessee (5/14). Of course, we know that the Dawgs can usually hit [though not against JSU], even if they can't pitch or field, and  playing Tennessee is not always everything it's cracked up to be,  especially with UT's shot at Hoover on the line – presently one game behind Alabama for the 8-seed. Still, I like Auburn's remaining schedule; they are pounding the ball (No. 1 in the SEC in team batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, hits, runs, home runs, etc., etc.) – and they have recently found some pitching. And they're hungry. Quality conference wins: The Plains Tigers have won series against the Bayou Tigers (before we knew they would spread their legs for everyone) and Arkansas at Baum.

LSU. While we have already taken care of our business with LSU, we may want to keep an eye on them over our shoulder. Oh my, what to say? The defending national & co-SEC champs, still stocked with great talent, look like paper tigers after having been successively undressed by the Rebs (x3), the soon-to-be Div. III Privateers and the Gators (x3). Limping along now at 4th place in the SEC West, it would still be a mistake to count these guys out. We know this is a very good team whose confidence was temporarily shaken by three very close - and heartbreaking - losses to Ole Miss. If they can pull their heads out of their asses - and I think they can - they can finish strong and hit Hoover on a roll. Vandy  (10-9; likely 12-9 had Mother Nature not canceled 2 games vs. Georgia this past weekend) is the cream of LSU’s remaining conference competition, and the Tigers get them at home (5/7) before traveling to Lexington (5/14) and then finishing off MSU in Baton Rouge (5/20).

Alabama is 9-12 in conference play, 5th in the West and 8th overall in the SEC. They have Florida at home (5/7), Ole Miss at home (5/14) and finish at Tennessee (5/20) – possibly with a trip to Hoover on the line in the last series. Alabama has no realistic shot at No. 1 in the West – that would require [almost ] running the table and simultaneous collapses by Ole Miss, Arkansas and Auburn.  The Rebs and Tide have played 4 common opponents:  Kentucky, LSU, MSU and South Carolina. Ole Miss is 9-3 against those opponents, Bama just 5-7. The Tide can certainly be had, even swept at home - but make no mistake:  the Tide certainly have the ability to spoil our tea party. 

[ED: And, as for State, they suck. Hard. No worries there.]

My prediction as to how all this plays out:

Ole Miss goes 6-3 in remaining conference play, ending up No. 1 in the West at 20-10 [and I’m being objective, I swear]; Arkansas finishes 5-4, 19-11 in the SEC; 16-12; LSU closes the gap but falls short, going 7-2, finishing at 18-12, tied for 3rd place in the West; Auburn goes 6-3 down the stretch, and ends up tied with LSU at 18-12; Alabama goes 3-6 or 4-5.

Fasten your seatbelts!