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Bubble Watching



I could not get the image to paste very clearly, so please click on the link to look at it big. This is based on data as of Sunday afternoon. These 22 teams are Lunardi's bubble teams, and there are supposedly 11 spots available for these 22 teams.

Ncaat1_medium

via img696.imageshack.us

So what to take from this:

  • The number on the right is the number of green (good) minus the number of red (bad) characteristics. This is only a rough estimate of overall profile because it (incorrectly) assumes that all factors are equal and does not account for extremes.
  • We are right in the middle. Pretty average across the board, but that is better than a lot of teams which are bad in many spots.
  • Georgia Tech is at the top, but they are 7-9 in conference. In past years, that has been a killer.
  • UConn is above us, but their 7-11 conference record is surely too much to overcome.
  • State is pretty much living off their wins over us. They have nothing else that gets them in the conversation.
  • Most think that Illinois is in due to their good wins, but the rest of their resume is severely lacking. 
  • It doesn't really make sense for a team to only be green in RPI, but several are. San Diego State has not done much, but they're sporting a very good 33 RPI. 
  • If we were to beat Tennessee, we'd go green in Top 25 W and Top 50 W. I believe that would put us in a very favorable position.
  • Since I made this chart, Wake Forest beat Clemson. This ends a four game losing streak for them, gets them to 9-7 in the ACC, and gives them another quality win. They are likely off the bubble and in the tournament. So make that ten spots remaining.

This post is a Red Cup Rebellion FanPost. Please don't sue us.

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Well done

How did you determine the thresholds for classifying as good and bad? Was it some specific deviation from the average among these teams?

I get crunk 25 days a week!

by 25 Days a Week on Mar 7, 2010 8:01 PM EST reply actions  

Not anything mathematical, just based on looking at what everybody had. Except for records where I classified a .500 or below conference record bad and 18 or fewer overall wins bad.

by weloveum on Mar 7, 2010 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

It's Pretty Easy, I Think

If we beat the Vols, barring some mid-major wackiness going on in other conferences, or the Gators going on a huge tear in the SEC tourney, we’re in. If we lose to the Vols, we’re NIT bound, and deservedly so.

Nice work assembling the data, though. It’s definitely food for thought as to the other bubble teams.

::Quietly rooting for his father’s alma mater, Seton Hall, to make the Dance, too…::

by HandsomeSam on Mar 7, 2010 9:52 PM EST reply actions  

Awesome job with the data.

I don’t have much confidence in our ability to beat TN in the tourney. Our only advantage will be them playing the day before.

Red Cup Rebellion -- Changing the Culture of Ole Miss Athletics

by BrianWalker'sElbow on Mar 8, 2010 9:30 AM EST reply actions  

I'm always suspect of people using statistics where wins can be a bad thing

and I think you are double-counting or misrepresenting the “weight” of certain numbers with how you have simplified your +/- system, but the chart was still helpful.

We’ll see what happens in the conference tournament. I think we are NIT bound. I also think that we will disappoint in the NIT. I know I am a pessimist and I have been riding the team all year, but there is nothing more upsetting to me than showing you can be a tournament team like in OT against UTEP (about which I was very positive, I might add) and deciding that you don’t want to be.

I'm a Rebel, but I bleed the cherry and silver of the Lobos.

by Role Player on Mar 8, 2010 11:27 AM EST reply actions  

I think you are double-counting or misrepresenting the "weight" of certain numbers with how you have simplified your +/- system

I said as much in my first bullet point. My goal there was to roughly see who had more positives than negatives, and I think it achieved that.

by weloveum on Mar 8, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

I knew we wouldn't make it.

I was pleasantly surprised yet still very happy State didn’t make it either. But wow, the ENTIRE SEC West shut out?

Yes, I live in Starkville...WHO did I piss off in a past life?

by Queen Hoka-Hotty-Toddy on Mar 14, 2010 6:43 PM EDT reply actions  

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