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2010 Baseball Preview: Rebel Outfield/DH

This is the first in a series of position breakdowns previewing the 2010 season of Ole Miss baseball.  In the upcoming eleven days, One Man to Beat and I will do our best to acquaint you with our team.  Today, I will discuss the Rebel outfield.

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The man himself in his coaching glory.  

The 2009 Rebels achieved regular season success not seen in Oxford in many years as they were the 2009 SEC Champs.  This was added to the many accomplishments of current head coach Mike Bianco including a 2005 SEC West title, a 2006 SEC Tournament Championship, and four super regional appearances.  A large part of the 2009 success was an outfield that was full of speed with Logan Power and Jordan Henry.  Balls rarely fell in gaps, and they had a knack for making big plays.  Power and Henry have both departed, and Mike Bianco will be looking for others to fill in.  

 

Star-divide

Coach is not looking to unexperienced players to play the outfield; rather, he is moving experienced infielders to fill in the gaps.  

For left field, he is looking to former 1B Matt Smith.  Smith made an impressive redshirt freshman debut in 2008 and started 60 of 61 games.  He was a bit shaky as an infielder and make a couple of bone-headed mistakes.  However, he absolutely mashed the ball by hitting a freshman record 14 home-runs, driving in 40 RBIs, scoring 39 runs, and batting .283.  The only flaw Matt had at the plate was an abysmal number of strikeouts as he had one of the highest totals in the country.  In 2009, Smith was a much improved player.  He all but eliminated the fielding errors.  At the plate, he raised his BA 53 points to .336 with 15 doubles, 2 triples, and 8 home-runs.  Mostly importantly, he cut down on the strikeouts.  His biggest moment of the 2009 campaign was his extra inning, walk-off blast over the right field wall that got the Rebels to within one game of Omaha.  

What can we expect from the 2010 edition of Matt Smith?  I expect him to hit circa .330, 12-15 doubles, and smash at least 15 home-runs.  I know these are high expectations, but he has improved greatly each year.

Another infielder who was moved is CF Tim Ferguson.  Fergulicious (I know you've tried to forget that Ivory.  I'm sorry) had an impressive 2009 campaign at the plate by hitting a team leading .358 with 4 triples, 6 doubles, and 2 dingers.  The most interesting thing about his numbers is he rode the pine behind Evan Button at second base.  Meaning, he was awesome at the plate in limited action.  Bianco wouldn't use him because he was right handed, but I will give Bianco credit for not playing him due to mediocre fielding ability.  I also laud Bianco for moving him to the outfield where his fielding won't necessarily be an issue.  

What can we expect from the 2010 center fielder?  One stat from 2009 that stuck out was the 18-for-19 on steals.  WOW!  I look for him to step into Jordan Henry's position quite nicely.  I'd wager on Tim batting .340 with 5 triples, almost 10 doubles, and he'll probably end up with 20 steals on the year.  

At this point in the article, you're wondering why I'm being so optimistic.  It may be the snow in North MS.  It may be that my extended time at church made me give thanks for all that Bianco has done.  Mwahahaha.  You've fallen into my trap.

Lastly, the position of right field.  As I listened to Bianco's interview with Kellum at halftime of the Bama game on Saturday, I cringed when he mentioned the name of our right fielder: David Phillips.  David is a senior in his second season with the Rebels.  He had a successful junior college career and had limited success last season in Oxford.  I would describe his relationship with Bianco to Ryan's relationship with Michael Scott in The Office.  As the audience, we were hoping for him to be a temp and to be fired but for some reason Michael Scott/Bianco loves him so much he gives him much more than he deserves: an IPod for Christmas, a job, etc.  The 2009 numbers aren't amazing as he hit .290 with 6 doubles and 2 long balls.  That would be ok for your #9 hitter, but not so good for a RF who should be one of your better hitters.  The worse part about David Phillips was his Super Regional performance when he went 0-for-5 with 3 strikeouts in two games.  What do I expect from the 2010 edition of David Phillips?  Honestly, not much. It is possible that he would have a Fuller Smith-like senior year and bat .340.  Realistically, Phillips will bat .300 with 3 HRs.  

Now a look at possible DH candidates. First, we look to Taylor Hashman, who saw limited action in 2009.  He started 19 games and batted .210 with 2 HRs.  Unless he is much improved, I doubt he will be seriously in the mix.  Another option that Bianco is excited about is Tanner Mathis.  Mathis is a freshman southpaw from Louisiana who had a decorated high school career.  This first team all-stater was also a pitcher, but Bianco is looking to use him solely in the outfield.  Lastly, Alex Yarborough will also get a look in the DH slot.  He would be an interesting addition to the line-up as he is a switch hitter.  

Cliff-notes: 

LF Matt Smith 

CF Tim Ferguson

RF David Phillips

DH Tanner Mathis

On Deck: Infield preview on February 11th.

0 recs  |  Comment 21 comments |

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David Phillips? BOOOOOO

He must’ve caught Bianco with a dead girl or a live boy.

Pig Pen this here's Rubber Duck, and I'm about to put the hammer down.

by JimHalpert on Feb 8, 2010 5:19 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Is there a viable alternative to Phillips?

Or just the fellas mentioned under DH as well?

by Thile on Feb 8, 2010 5:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Alternatives

The guys mentioned at DH are the alternatives as you mentioned. No other options really.

by BrianWalker'sElbow on Feb 8, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I assumed so but was hoping otherwise.

Seems like there was someone missing, but maybe thinking of Travis from last years team

by Thile on Feb 8, 2010 9:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bianco liked to platoon that OF spot last year...

Cliff Vaughn is the only other right handed OF bat I see on the roster… if its accurate.
Looks like he played really well in HS but hasn’t played much, redshirt sophomore with only 7 abs (5 Ks – yikes /extremely small sample size obvs).

I think you kind of flip-flop the roles. Smith in LF so he doesn’t hurt us too much defensively, lose a little with your RF’s bat?

by Thile on Feb 9, 2010 8:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair...

Bianco didn’t specify which would be playing left and right during the interview, so I just took a guess on it. I saw Phillips play RF last year so I just assumed that’s what he’d play.

Can you restate your ending question?

by BrianWalker'sElbow on Feb 9, 2010 10:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was looking at it from a batting order perspective.

You have Matt Smith playing LF batting 3rd or 4th and you have Phillips playing RF but batting in the bottom half of the order (maybe 6th?).

We were a weak-hitting team last year and outside of Smith and Snyder maybe projecting that way this year?

by Thile on Feb 9, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Very informative.

Over the years there have been a lot of players that Bianco has inexplicably fallen in love with. I won’t name any names to protect the innocent, but let’s just say David Phillips isn’t the first.

by weloveum on Feb 8, 2010 5:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Evan Button maybe. Justin Brashear. Brett Basham.

There is no reason Jeremy Travis and Ferguson should’ve been platooning with Phillips and Button last year. Travis was one of our best and only power bats, and Ferguson was our best hitter, but they both had to split time with Phillips and Button.

Brashear and Basham both went through spells when they couldn’t hit anything other than grounders to 2nd when they did put it in play, but Bianco wouldn’t take them out of the line up.

It’s a Bianco trademark to fall in love with a player or two. Fortunately, in 2005 and 2006 our position players were so good all around that he didn’t have a choice but to play who he played.

by RebelBruiser on Feb 9, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Travis got off to a fast start but didn't sustain it...

I wondered why he did not play more after that tho

by Thile on Feb 9, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

All I know...

is that whenever I saw Travis get his few at bats late in the year, he was hitting the ball hard somewhere, often to the gaps, something our team lacked last year big time, yet David Phillips, with a weaker arm and weaker bat, was still getting the platoon action against right handed pitchers (see: about 2/3 of the guys we faced).

That’s the other thing, Travis may not have been the best outfielder defensively as far as covering ground and making plays (neither was Phillips), but Travis had the strongest arm of all our outfielders. Power was the best combination of accuracy and strength as a throwing arm, but Travis had a the best gun. I’m still ticked about that.

by RebelBruiser on Feb 9, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Striking Out Not Necessarily Any Worse Than Any Other Form of Making an Out

Other than that gripe, very informative. Looking forward to the rest of the previews, as well as the season!

by HandsomeSam on Feb 8, 2010 10:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It is worse

because the ball never gets in play, thus runners have no opportunity to advance.

by Juco All-American on Feb 9, 2010 9:05 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Partially

I’m also saying that isolating how many times a guy strikes out is misleading. Some of the best overall hitters in MLB strikeout a TON, but also walk a shitload, and thus have incredibly high OBPs in addition to SLG%s. A lot of Ks isn’t necessarily indicative of a guy who goes up to the plate hacking away at everything that moves. A lot of Ks can also be indicative of a patient hitter who waits for a pitch he really likes and crushes the damn thing, and will take a pitch if it looks to be too far outside the zone to effectively put into play.

If you want to get really wonky about it, and why wouldn’t you, check out

www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617

Of course, this data is culled from MLB, not the NCAAs. It’s possible that there are more errors committed at the collegiate level to the point where just putting the ball into play means you have a legitimate shot of reaching base.

by HandsomeSam on Feb 9, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The errors thing was one of the things I was talking about.

Another option: sac fly! We strike out often when all we have to do is put the ball in play. Phillips is definitely guilty of that.

by BrianWalker'sElbow on Feb 9, 2010 3:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I did not think about that aspect (errors) and I think one of the issues with doing a carte blanche sabremetric comparison

of MLB vs NCAA is you don’t have the same amount of accuracy in your numbers.

For the MLB you have a ton of data and they chart every pitch and every defensive play. So you have a normalizing effect with respect to leagues, eras, ball park, and so on. (OPS+ vs straight OPS, homey)

That’s kind of out of the current instance, but just from a perspective that you see a lot more errors per ball game and just missed plays. I don’t think, for instance, Matt Smith, had that big of a change in pure fielding percent, but he didn’t make nearly the same amount of mental errors.

Its more of a WYSIWYG at the college level so advanced stats are not as available.

by Thile on Feb 9, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Phillips and Ks

Phillips is also just not that good at hitting, period. I was just encouraging caution when evaluating talent based on looking at stats in a vacuum. I’d take a batter with with a lot of Ks but also high OBP and SLG over a high AVG, low K guy who doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for much power, and I think that I’m not alone in this sentiment.

I’d like to see what impact errors have on NCAA baseball over MLB baseball. The two are pretty different games, really, and I’m relatively new to following the collegiate game.

(Of course, being a Pirates fan, it’s debatable as to whether or not I’ve really been watching pro baseball in any realistic definition of the phrase, either.)

by HandsomeSam on Feb 9, 2010 3:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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