The Local Voice #84

by Juco All-American on Jul 9, 2009 10:12 AM EDT Comment 5 comments

As always, you can click the link to read the full newspaper. Our story follows below.

Alright Rebel fans, it's "Strength of Schedule Month" in college football. That’s right, we’ve blown right through "Hypothetical Uniform Modification Month," and only a few short weeks remain until "Fiendish XBox Abuse Month," formerly referred to as "Actually Caring About Professional Baseball Month," or "The Dark Ages"… but we digress; back to "SOS Month."

So the pundits have been pontificating on the perils of program opponents this period (Alliteration FTW!!!). Anyway, experts have said that Ole Miss' paltry schedule could cost them this season. The real question is this: what could a weak SOS possibly cost the rebels? A bowl game? The only way that happens is if we somehow need to count both I-AA wins to get to six victories and bowl eligibility. That scenario is downright, knock-on-wood, impossible.

No. What the experts say that our schedule could cost us is a BCS bowl or even (gasp!) a National Championship. Almost certainly, the Rebs have to go 11-1 at worst for SOS to factor into the BCS equation. Even so, we’re more than willing to bet that, were we able to put ourselves in that situation, we’d still be peachy, even with Northern Arizona and Louisiana Generic University on the schedule. Here’s why.

After wins and losses, the most important element to determining who is in a position to play for a BCS bowl is the media hype surrounding that program, starting all the way back in May and June. Critics point to Auburn's 13-0 season and subsequent BCS title snub. And while Auburn, in retrospect, should have played for the title in favor of Oklahoma, OU’s season-long hype parade, coupled with Auburn’s disappointing stumble the season before, cemented the decision to allow the Sooners an ass-whipping session at the hands of the Trojans.

The Rebels won't suffer from the same fate. Most polls place us in the top ten, and polls ranking the Rebels outside of the top 15 don't exist outside of the state of Arkansas. Because the Rebels begin the season at such a high point, they won’t have to worry about vaulting other undefeated teams in the polls. Basically, if Nutt and co. are still undefeated after the Alabama game, we're likely #2 in the country. Then it's all about holding on.

With this possible storybook season, the last thing we needed to do was schedule what appears to be an easy Mid-Major win, only to end up facing Wyoming, Mizzou, or Wake Forest during their programs’ best seasons ever. We’re watching you, UAB…

For anyone who still isn't happy with the easy schedule, just prepare yourselves for 2012, when the Longhorns come to Oxford. Hopefully we won't be wishing we could play two 1-AA teams that year.

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Agree.

And again, I go back to Texas Tech last year. Their OOC schedule was arguably weaker than ours is this season, yet they vaulted all the way to No. 2 in the country (bouncing an undefeated Penn State team in the process), simply because they won a big game against Texas.

The kicker in all this discussion is that even if we were to go 11-1 in the regular season making the SEC title game, who would we likely play in the SEC title game? Florida of course.

And if Florida holds up their end of the bargain, they will be undefeated and No. 1 in the country. To make the BCS title game, you basically have to win your conference title game, at least since the latest tweaks to the BCS formula. The only teams to not win a conference title and make the BCS title game were OU in 2003, lost to KSU, and Nebraska in 2001, didn’t make conference title game. Those were before more weight was put on the polls, and neither team would’ve made it to the title game under the current BCS formula. Anyway, if we were 11-1, and we beat an undefeated or 1 loss Florida team that’s the overwhelming national title favorite, that would be enough momentum to get us in the BCS title game, unless for some reason 2 BCS teams went undefeated, which is unlikely but possible.

Regardless, in any hypothetical, I don’t see SOS coming into play. The most important factors in the polls and thus the BCS is the ‘what have you done for me lately?’ factor, and pretty much any hypothetical for us having a shot at the BCS title would lead through a game with Florida in Atlanta, which would be the ultimate in the ‘what have you done for me lately?’ category.

by RebelBruiser on Jul 9, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Something about counting chickens...

Look, I agree we’ve got our best shot in years—many, many years, but I’m about to go crazy over these expectations. Not because I don’t think Nutt will be able to live up to them, but simply b/c we are Ole Miss.

Before we go trying to figure out how our strength of schedule is going to effect us, let’s focus on winning those OOC games and the tough ones in the SEC (USC on Thursday ESPN scares the livin’ fire out of me). It’s going to be a tough fight and nothing will be given to us this year, but we have the team (and the coach, i think) to get to Atlanta.

by the_drake on Jul 10, 2009 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My point.

I intended to imply (not sure how effectively) that the only way strength of schedule could affect us was if we were talking about a shot at a national championship. Thus, the point was relatively moot, however, if the rebels did manage to contend, strength of schedule would not hold us back.

by Juco All-American on Jul 10, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know you're dealing in hypotheticals

But it still makes me nervous. My comment isn’t just about this piece; it’s about all the hype and Ole Miss fans’ expectations. I knock on wood every time I talk about the Rebels. It’s a good article, and I agree with all your points. I’m just very nervous.

by the_drake on Jul 10, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs