The Ole Miss Rebels: The Buffalo Bills of NCAA Baseball
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jun 8, 2009 3:03 PM EDT
Email
Print
Evan Button, is that you?
I'm just going to throw all of this out there. You throw back whatever you'd like. Cool? Alright.
Call me a homer. Call me an apologist. Call me what you will, but all of you know that I want only the best for our Rebels.
As of yesterday afternoon, several are beginning to think that current skipper Mike Bianco may not be what this team needs to advance past the sweet-sixteen of college baseball, the NCAA Super Regionals. I disagree. I do think that coach Bianco is what is best for our Rebels. Let's first look at the most telling of all statistics, wins vs. losses. Below you'll find our programs winning percentages the nine years preceding Bianco versus the nine years of Bianco. You're smart enough to figure out that the blue vertical line denotes pre- vs. post-Bianco's hiring, aren't you?
In the nine years preceding Bianco's nine years in Oxford, only one season cracked a plus-.600 win percentage and even had that season been during Bianco's tenure it would have barely been his fourth or fifth best. Mike Bianco has made this program what it is and I feel there is absolutely no doubt about that in an overwhelming majority of our minds.
But why, after making it to four Super Regionals in five seasons, have we been unable to make our way to the College World Series?
This may be a hard pill to swallow for many, but I posit that our Rebel baseball teams, save for the incredibly talented victims of poor NCAA seeding we fielded in 2005, are simply not as good as we have led ourselves to believe that they are.
Let's take a look back at our Super Regional appearances. In 2005, the Rebels, the 5th overall seed in the tournament, were paired with the Texas Longhorns. Some would have called that matchup a push but, with guys like Houston Street and Taylor Teagarden, the 2005 Longhorns squad has the slight edge. We all know the rest of the story; the Rebels took game one only to lose the final two. As for the Longhorns, they swept the College World Series in one of the most dominant postseason collegiate baseball performances in the last decade. No matter which way you slice it, that was poor seeding on the NCAA selection committee's part. But, please, don't take my word for it. Instead, take Texas Longhorn head coach Augie Garrido's opinion that our 2005 Rebels were the best team ever seen not make it to Omaha.
In 2006, we were paired with a two-seed Miami team. We should not have lost that Super Regional. Anyone who opines thusly is correct in doing so. However, when considering the nature of baseball and playoff systems in general, somebody is going to take the brunt of an upset and, yes, sometimes that somebody will be us. Suck it up. Look at Florida losing to USM or UC Irvine completely blowing their regional for evidence of this. To pretend that we're immune to such is ignorant, arrogant, or both.
The 2007 we traveled to Tempe, AZ to face the no. 5 overall seed Arizona State Sun Devils in their super regional. The Sun Devils had lost ten fewer games than our Rebels. Was anyone surprised at the outcome of that series?
This 2009 team? This team was against a UVA team which won their conference tournament, gave Stephen Strasburg his only loss on the season, and took the regional away from the number one team in America. How did we handle such excellent competition? We played two hard-fought games decided by one run and another which wasn't opened up until a few innings were left in the series, all without Scott Bittle on the mound. Yet, somehow Bianco is a "choker" who can't prepare his team to win the big one.
Sure, he hasn't won the big one, but we are constantly facing teams which are better baseball teams! Aside from the Miami super regional, Bianco has lost to teams he should have lost to. And, in baseball, you're going to drop a series to somewhat-inferior talent on occasion. We just so happened to do that the one time out of four we were actually facing somewhat-inferior talent.
Let's look at this 2009 squad a little more closely. How many all SEC players did we have this season? The answer: 3 with one first-teamer and two second-teamers, one of which blew up his shoulder before postseason play. Our leadoff man was 15th in the conference in batting average (but first in steals and a walk-machine, hence his all-SEC selection). We had zero players in the top-twelve in batting average, slugging percentage, hits, RBI's, home runs, or total bases. Yet despite this we were third in the conference in team batting average and on base percentage while being 3rd to last in strikeouts.
Our pitching staff was fine. We had a good team ERA being just barely 2nd in the conference and sat pretty with the 3rd most batters struck out. Nathan Baker, Drew Pomeranz, and Phillip Irwin were all in the conference's top-10 ERA list and Drew Pomeranz was third in batters struck out. But, super regional opponent Virginia had an equally impressive pitching staff posting a very similar team ERA heading into this last weekend.
Frankly put, our team, despite having several weaknesses, was able to make it as far as they did because of Mike Bianco, not in spite of him. Let's operate in a vacuum here with this hypothetical: if a team with nothing close a conference leader in major batting categories and an ace pitcher out with a shoulder injury somehow finished their season with a sweep over an (Omaha bound) opponent to earn a conference-leading 20-10 record just before winning their regional and coming so painfully close to knocking the hottest team in America on their way to Omaha in a super regional, how would you say they did it?
Nine times out of ten, you'd say "coaching." Look up and down our roster. This Rebel squad is nowhere close to the best one Bianco has fielded. However, it posted the best conference record of any team he has coached and made a respectable postseason run.
Yet, somehow Bianco's (ab)use of pitchers, small-ball, and micro-managing isn't working? C'mon Rebel fans, there's a bit of a disconnect there.
I will concede this, changes do need to be made. Bianco is doing a great job of taking a bunch of middle-of-the-pack style players, sprinkling in a handful of All-SEC caliber guys, and racking up 17-20 conference wins. But, just imagine what he could do with some amplified recruiting.
If one were to frankly assess the situation, they would see that we are not living up to our full recruiting potential. While our 2011 class is rumored to be phenomenal (Juco knows more about this than I do), our last few have followed the Bianco mold of "get a few Gatorade POY types out of high school and surround them with JUCO transfers." Or, at least this has been the modus operandi since the departure of Dan McDonnell to Louisville after the 2005 season. What Bianco needs is another Dan McDonnell type. A guy who can really improve his player's bats and recruit high-level talent. When you really think about it, we have been a very incomplete team since that 2005 super regional ended. A reliable defensive shortstop, solid middle reliever, and a truly consistent homerun threat have not all appeared on this team at the same time since then. We have had some role players percolate about from season to season or even series to series, but one can't help but feel that the Ole Miss baseball program has been a "work in progress" over the last four seasons. Ideally, improved recruiting will do what it can to "complete" this team in future seasons.
It is true that, due to our facilities and cleat-chasers, the program will, for the most part, recruit itself. But, you've still got kids growing up in Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, and other states in our area who can remember just about every one of our in-conference foes make it to Omaha while we haven't in their lifetimes.
Yes, as much as it stings, the LSU and Mississippi State mantra of Ole Miss At Home Again is very much the case right now. Our recruiting will hurt a little bit until we get over that hump. I cannot ignore this.
And, Brian Walker's Elbow, you need to relax. For the last two seasons, you've been the Gonzohog of Ole Miss baseball. You are so blinded by your anti-Bianco sentiments that you go so far as to refuse to acknowledge his successes. I can remember being in the stands of Oxford-University Stadium when we took the second game against the then-number one ranked Georgia Bulldogs, all while you insisted upon the idea that Mike Bianco is overrated. You're a buzzkill. And you're not funny. Give the man credit where it is due. This team does not hold a candle to his best squad, yet it won an SEC co-championship when the other couldn't. Yes, I was embarrassed by our two-and-through in Hoover as well, but I wasn't calling for Bianco's head just as I doubt Georgia fans were doing the same to Dave Perno last season (and they were the number one seed!). Yes, I would have liked to have gone to Omaha this season, as with every season, but this team hardly has the talent to do it.
Bianco is a good skipper. Of course, as with everyone, he is flawed. I'm not going to pretend he isn't. He utilizes a very bizarre mixture of conservative, "play-the-stats" style of baseball with high-risk-high-reward decisions (suicide squeezes, leaving pitchers in, etc). He often confounds me with his decisions as well. But, he has built this program into what it is today. If he can swallow his pride and shore up his staff for some better recruiters and evaluators of talent, I fully believe we will truly realize Bianco's potential as a head ball coach.
We have the resources to make it to Omaha every other year. Hopefully, yesterday will serve as the necessare wake-up call to push us in that direction.
Hotty Toddy and Go Rebels Go! It's football season now, and karma is on our side.
18 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Ummm...
I went to college with Scott Norwood, could you please use another example?
I'm glad you said it - re: buzzkill
I am all for constructive criticism but its been a chore to read on here.
Request
Write a fanpost about what you think of our baseball team and its future.
by Juco All-American on Jun 8, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually thought you had a pretty good point with regards to his 2 top 10 recruiting classes
To me this is all that really matters tho:
Mike Bianco 365 – 203 – 1 (0.643) is the most winning coach by percentage we have had in the modern era. (Followed very closely by Swayze at 0.642). No one else is within the same range.
I’m not saying we should be happy with going 0 fer in supers, but to say we are bianco apologists when we have the most winning coach in our history is a bit ludicrous to me so all I can say to that is ‘small sample size’.
As far as direction, I am not in the loop as far as our recruiting so any news on that would be great!
This team was only elite when we had Bittle (which obviously is a flaw in and of itself) but to me the whole Bianco apologist thing is a little over the line.
My biggest problem with Bianco is his in-game strategies- ones that obviously don’t work, but he insists on doing them.
- Leaving his pitchers in. Bianco doesn’t seem to anticipate pitchers getting tired/struggling whatsoever. It’s one thing when your starter starts giving up runs in the first or second inning. It’s another thing entirely when it’s the sixth or seventh inning and you wait until he gives up two runs and gets two on the bases to send somebody to the pen. One of the only times this season where I saw Bianco send people to the bullpen early was with Pom against WKU, and that was because he had thrown 100+ two days earlier
- The Righty/Lefty Matchup. I would love to see the data on the effectiveness of adjusting your lineup to counter the pitcher. I can understand how in theory it makes sense and sounds effective. However, we don’t have the bats (thanks, recruiting) to do it properly. I fail to see how replacing a guy who consistently gets hits/puts the ball in play (Travis) for a guy who doesn’t (Phillips) gives you a better chance at success just because of what side of the plate they stand on.
- Bunting. This has been discussed ad nauseum. There is a time and place for aggressive bunting and baserunning. That time and place is not every inning when you get a runner on base with no outs.
Pig Pen this here's Rubber Duck, and I'm about to put the hammer down.
"Obviously don't work"
There are plenty of individual situations which don’t work, but we won the damn SEC (sorta). It’s not like he started doing everything you stated this last weekend.
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jun 8, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree...
with your first point. While it frustrated me during the game yesterday that he did not have someone warming up between innnings late in baker’s start, I think he is well aware of what his pitchers can do. In the first two games of the series, everyone wanted to see Irwin and Pom taken out two innings earlier than they were, but what happened, he didn’t and both of them almost seemed to pitch their best in their last few innings. He made a mistake with Baker, but like Ghost said, he’s human and it is not like our starters have paid for going deep into games. It seems more like our bullpen has when they are called on too early. Don’t put too much into my last statement, the point is that leaving the pitchers in too long is not a trend of what “obviously does not work.” Two for three is not bad. It would have been two wins, were it not for clutch fielding.
For the record, I don't agree with a lot of Bianco's decisions personally
and agree with most of what Ghost and Jim said.
Just tired of the Fire Bianco/thin ice mentality
True.
But when we get in big games and lose, those seem to be the common themes.
Pig Pen this here's Rubber Duck, and I'm about to put the hammer down.
Great Work Ghost...
I liked this a lot. You seemed to have highlighted the majors points – i.e. Bianco is our baseball coach, but needs to improve some things, especially recruiting.
That being said, I laughed a lot this weekend at Mike Bianco jokes that served as almost anti-Chuck Norris jokes.
Ex:
-Arkansas? Oh ya, Bianco has been on the phone coaching Florida State from the dugout all weekend.
-I heard that it was actually Bianco calling the shots in the US Soccer team’s 3-1 defeat to Costa Rica.
Sure.. give anyone, even Bianco, a hundred tries and he’ll eventually succeed at one of them.. unfortunately, it seems his won’t be until number 99 or 100. I think it’s about time to put him out to pasture.
by BimBamOleMissByDamn on Jun 8, 2009 6:21 PM EDT reply actions
I understand all Bianco has done, but...
in my opinion, some of your logic is flawed.
First, you put forth the argument that our teams have simply not been good enough. You acknowledge that recruiting is a significant cause for this and that changes need to be made, but you fail to assign any blame on Bianco for this failure. Whose responsibility is it to ensure that we have a team that is “good enough” at least once over a nine year period? In addition, our postseason woes surely at some point influence recruiting.
Second, your argument is that Bianco is not a choker but rather always gets beaten by better teams. With one exception, where he did, well, choke. How do argue that he has not choked when that is precisely what he did in the one instance where you believe he had the better team?
Third, and this is just strictly my own opinion, but I do not believe Virginia was a significantly better team than us. Not enough that they should come into our stadium in their very first super regional and beat us. Their stats were admittedly great, but they also were 6th place (!) in the ACC during the regular season. Not unbeatable by any means.
Fourth, which renders a lot of the rest of this irrelevant, you don’t have to be the better team to win the super regional. Is Arkansas a better team than Florida State? Southern Miss better than Florida? Doesn’t seem like it. The difference is that they found ways to win despite the situation. In contrast, we find ways to lose.
Responses to each point.
First – Erroneous. I placed the blame on him for not having a staff capable of recruiting to the level we need to be.
Second – So he’s choked once out of four super regionals, sure. But when we swept Arkansas to end the season as SEC champs, was that choking? When we won the SEC tourney in 2006, was that choking? The whole “Mike Bianco can’t win when it matters” argument is very tailored.
Third – Well I think they were better, but as you pointed out, that’s really an issue of opinion.
Fourth – True, but those are exceptions to the rule. Baseball is funny like that.
Take a picture, trick.
by The Ghost of Jay Cutler on Jun 8, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
On knowing when to relieve a pitcher....
There are too many instances of Bianco sticking too long with an obviously laboring pitcher to count. Classic example is Game 1 of the 2007 ASU Super. Old news? Then try these 3 from this season: Bittle in the 8th – and 9th! – of Game 1 vs. Alabama; Baker in the 4th or 5th vs. USM at the TP; Morgan in the 8th, Sunday game vs. WKU. That’s off the top of my head, strong sense there were several other instances this season. Sure, anybody can screw that up occasionally, but there is a pattern here. And I’m a fan who thinks Bianco’s positives far outweigh his negatives. Maybe the guy just needs some dependable help. Notice how UVA’s O’Connor actually used his pitching coach this weekend to manage his pitching staff? If Bianco doesn’t trust Lafferty’s judgment then he should get an assistant in whom he has confidence.
I'd say we were the 1982 Cardinals -- almost
This was such an unsatisfying season on so many levels, and not just because we played a style of baseball that is intensely unsatisfying.
Even though we won 44 games, there is just such an overwhelming feeling of frustration with the season and this team.
Our record against our biggest rivals (LSU, MSU, USM, Ala.) was 6-6.
When we got sweeps, we got them on the road, against mediocre teams when nobody was watching. Bittle’s will he/won’t-he-play drama was draining. The SEC Tournament was a disaster. The regional was looking up, until we had that epic collapse and had to get a miracle performance from Pomeranz to survive. The super was about as frustrating and gut-wrenching as baseball gets.
At least they said a lot of nice things about the facilities on ESPN.
Honestly, only the Georgia series in Oxford stands out this year. We saw what could have been in that series, playing clutch baseball with our best players in front of a raucous home crowd. That was our emotional high-water mark, and we never came close to reaching that level again.
I have been a Bianco apologist since we lost to Miami two years ago and people really started to ride him, but I am as sick and tired of his timid, dink-and-dunk, play-not-lose game management style as anyone. We play in a band-box stadium and should be hitting way more home runs than we do. Plus, as Virginia proved, you can’t do small ball
without aggressive base running; if we’re going to remain a ground ball, singles-hitting team, we need more steals, so we can get guys to second without giving up an out or an at-bat. If we’re going to try to win like the 1982 Cardinals — and there’s nothing wrong with that — then we need to run more.
All that being said, I would give him another season. Many good points have been made in his defense and I acknowledge them all. He won the SEC and was (maybe) one botched routine ground ball from getting us to Omaha this year with a good-but-not-great team. And if Bittle is healthy, we’re not only going to Omaha, but we’re a good bet to win the whole damn thing.
Bring on football.
Don't try and lay no boogie woogie on the king of rock 'n roll.
Are we here to be a good team or a great team.....
While it is true that Bianco and his teams have won lots of games every year. Are we as fans content to just win a lot of games every year and never have a championship. If you look at where our baseball program is today (June 9, 2009) and where Mississippi State’s team is today you know what you see? They will both be in Mississippi watching the college world series from their couches. If we don’t hold Bianco and his staff accountable, we are basically telling him to keep doing what he has been doing….winning regular season and regional games and not being able to make it over the hump to Omaha. How long has it been since we won a championship in one of the 3 major sports (football, basketball, and baseball). Hell, Rod Barnes took us to the NCAA tournament in basketball, a place Kennedy hasn’t seen yet, but you don’t hear anyone complaining about firing Barnes and hiring Kennedy. Also, their were a lot of people who were not happy with letting Cutcliffe go. For a few years after that we sucked, but then we find the right guy and our program seems to be headed in the right direction. I’m not saying we should fire Bianco, but we need change in the program. Personally, we need a new staff in place behind Bianco. We need some Mcdonnell and Stuart Lake types. These guys were a threat to take a better position every year, but they made our guys produce. I don’t see anyone waiting at the doors of Lafferty, Reinstettle and Mossberg.
by Throw it in the dirt on Jun 9, 2009 8:42 AM EDT reply actions
Re: You're a buzzkill. And you're not funny. Give the man credit where it is due
I can think of 2 bad bunting situations over the weekend, but other than that I feel Bianco did his job well with what he had to play with. The biggest f ups came from the players on the field. We have been a very good fielding team all year, how was bianco supposed to anticipate errors on routine throws to first and home?
most of yall are show the same arrogance I mock in LSU fans, anything less than a title is unacceptable. I meanwhile will be dying to get to Omaha. and enjoying fun and exciting baseball that does mean something(monday’s pitching clinic, and fridays late game heriocs. It doesnt get “much” better than that) I have had enough years to research to hotels and the logistics of getting there, and it will be so sweet when Bianco takes us there.
Righty-lefty
That killed me too. One of your best power bats and arguably your best outfield arm was Jeremy Travis. He sat the bench about 2/3 of the time because he only got to face lefties most of the year. Meanwhile, we played Phillips who gave us little at the plate and even less defensively.
Same could be said for Ferguson/Button. Button is a decent player, but Ferguson was one of our best hitters, probably was our second fastest player behind Henry, and he had a little bit of pop on occasion. Button and Ferg were both shaky defensively at times. Button just wasn’t as fast and didn’t have the average that Ferguson had. Ferguson actually led our team in hitting this year, but he too only played about 1/3 of the time due to platooning.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
